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HOW TO PROVIDE A BALANCE OF FORCES IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS?
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 14 2014
14 July 2014 - 12:53pm
Yekaterina Tesemnikova, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Experts had never had a common view on the consequences of the
growth of the military budgets and capacities of the armed forces in
the South Caucasus. Some make a direct conclusion - if they equip
themselves, they are preparing for war; as there is no progress in
peaceful settlements of the South Caucasus conflicts, there will be
war. Others have an absolutely different view - the more arms they
have, the higher the security level is for each state and the whole
region, as the balance of forces is maintained.
To understand what a balance of forces is, let's turn to statistics
of the Russian Council for International Affairs, and present data
on various countries of the region.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is the leader in military capacities and military expenses
in the South Caucasus. Last year its military budget was $3.7 billion.
67 thousand soldiers and officers serve in the Azerbaijani army. They
have 340 tanks (T-90SA and T-72), about 700 armored combat vehicles
and armored infantry vehicles. The Air Forces have 14 fighter planes
(Fulcrum), 19 attack planes (Frogfoot), 40 attack Mi-24/35 helicopters,
and 30 carrying armed Mi-8/17 helicopters. Moreover, Azerbaijan has
modernized Soviet vehicles.
Experts note that Baku works with various suppliers. Azerbaijan hadn't
bought arms from Russia till Moscow supplied it with 62 T-72 tanks and
new APC-80s in 2007. Since that time the Russian share has been growing
on the Azerbaijani market. Since 2010 Russia has started dominating
the Azerbaijani military market. Baku has already purchased 24 Mi-35m
helicopters, 60 Mi-17 helicopters, two divisions of the surface-to-air
missile system S-300PMU-2, 130 T-90SA tanks, 100 BMP-3 armored infantry
vehicles, 70 APC-80/82s, 450 various artillery systems and MRLS,
300 man-portable air-defense systems, and 1500 missiles for them.
The package of Russian contracts with Azerbaijan is worth almost
$2 billion. Moreover, Baku has purchased arms from Ukraine - 12
BM-30 Smerch and three Scarab B systems, 210 mortar launchers, 45
T-72 tanks, 132 modernized APC-70Di, 14 modernized fighter planes
(Fulcrum). Azerbaijan used to purchase arms from Belarus until the
mid-2000s; it got 60 T-72 tanks and three 2S7 motorized artillery-type
weapons. At the moment Israel has worked its way in to the Azerbaijani
market. It exports anti-tank missile complexes Spike-LR and MRLS Lynx,
as well as Heron and Searcher UAV.
Thus, Azerbaijan successfully converts its oil dollars into security.
Armenia
According to all parameters, the Armenian army is weaker than the
Azerbaijani one. Last year the military budget of Armenia didn't
surpass $447 million. 45 thousand people serve in its army. They have
200 tanks (mainly T-72), about 100 APC and 140 AFV, 240 artillery
cannons. The Air Forces have 15 attack planes (Frogfoot) and 10 Mi-24
and Mi-8/17 armored helicopters.
As for weapons procurement, Armenia is behind not only Azerbaijan,
but also Georgia. Experts complain that the sphere is kept in secret
in Yerevan. It is only known that last year Armenia received 35 T-72
tanks and 110 APC-2 and/or APC-80; several years ago it received
480 machine pistols AK-105, 36 RPK-74M machine guns, several sniper
rifles, 32 special KS-23 short rifles, 60 GP-30 grenade launchers,
10 hand-held 6G30-40mm grenade launchers and 603 pistols.
For obvious reasons, Armenia yields to Baku in the arms race. However,
the 102nd Russian military base is situated on its territory. It has
74 tanks, 17 APC, 148 BTR, 84 artillery systems, including BM-30
Smerch, 18 fighter planes (Fulcrum), air defense systems S-300V,
and Buk-M1-2. 500 soldiers who serve at the base support the balance
of forces in the region, but the Russian authorities have many times
stated that their soldiers and officers won't be involved in military
activities.
Georgia
When Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, Tbilisi's military expenditure
began to grow. In 2003 Tbilisi spent $30 million. In 2007 expenditure
grew to $1 billion - 24.5 times more. Ahead of the five-day war, it
reached 8% of GDP. However, later they reduced. Last year the military
budget of Georgia was less than $400 million. The Georgian army
reduced after the war as well. Only 20 thousand people serve in it.
They have 90 T-72 tanks, 63 APC and 137 AFV, 185 artillery cannons.
The Air Forces have 12 fighter planes (Fulcrum) and 30 carrying
helicopters Mi-8 and UH-1H Iroquois.
Before the five-day war Tbilisi purchased arms in Ukraine. Prague also
exported weapons to Georgia. After the war Tbilisi didn't purchase
any weapons for two years; but in 2011 it purchased 12 SAU 2-S1-122
mm, 1500 machine pistols, 450 man-held machine guns, and 600 grenade
launchers RPG-22 from Bulgaria. At the same time, Georgia gave up
attempts to build a powerful army and focused on building compact
armed forces which are able to hold joint operations with NATO.
However, according to some experts, when Tbilisi loses hope of
joining the alliance, it could change its view on returning Abkhazia
and South Ossetia and the need to shed the blood of its soldiers in
NATO operations.
*** So we can say that the military expenditure of Georgia will
depend on the geopolitical situation and agreements between Moscow and
Washington. The situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is different. They
are leaders in the military share of GDP in the world. Yerevan
spends 4% of its national revenues on the purposes; Baku - 6%. These
two countries of the region will continue to accumulate their armed
forces. However, experts are sure that the peaceful capacities of Baku
are quite enough for its dominance in the region - I mean financial
resources and instruments of soft power.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/57645.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 14 2014
14 July 2014 - 12:53pm
Yekaterina Tesemnikova, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Experts had never had a common view on the consequences of the
growth of the military budgets and capacities of the armed forces in
the South Caucasus. Some make a direct conclusion - if they equip
themselves, they are preparing for war; as there is no progress in
peaceful settlements of the South Caucasus conflicts, there will be
war. Others have an absolutely different view - the more arms they
have, the higher the security level is for each state and the whole
region, as the balance of forces is maintained.
To understand what a balance of forces is, let's turn to statistics
of the Russian Council for International Affairs, and present data
on various countries of the region.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is the leader in military capacities and military expenses
in the South Caucasus. Last year its military budget was $3.7 billion.
67 thousand soldiers and officers serve in the Azerbaijani army. They
have 340 tanks (T-90SA and T-72), about 700 armored combat vehicles
and armored infantry vehicles. The Air Forces have 14 fighter planes
(Fulcrum), 19 attack planes (Frogfoot), 40 attack Mi-24/35 helicopters,
and 30 carrying armed Mi-8/17 helicopters. Moreover, Azerbaijan has
modernized Soviet vehicles.
Experts note that Baku works with various suppliers. Azerbaijan hadn't
bought arms from Russia till Moscow supplied it with 62 T-72 tanks and
new APC-80s in 2007. Since that time the Russian share has been growing
on the Azerbaijani market. Since 2010 Russia has started dominating
the Azerbaijani military market. Baku has already purchased 24 Mi-35m
helicopters, 60 Mi-17 helicopters, two divisions of the surface-to-air
missile system S-300PMU-2, 130 T-90SA tanks, 100 BMP-3 armored infantry
vehicles, 70 APC-80/82s, 450 various artillery systems and MRLS,
300 man-portable air-defense systems, and 1500 missiles for them.
The package of Russian contracts with Azerbaijan is worth almost
$2 billion. Moreover, Baku has purchased arms from Ukraine - 12
BM-30 Smerch and three Scarab B systems, 210 mortar launchers, 45
T-72 tanks, 132 modernized APC-70Di, 14 modernized fighter planes
(Fulcrum). Azerbaijan used to purchase arms from Belarus until the
mid-2000s; it got 60 T-72 tanks and three 2S7 motorized artillery-type
weapons. At the moment Israel has worked its way in to the Azerbaijani
market. It exports anti-tank missile complexes Spike-LR and MRLS Lynx,
as well as Heron and Searcher UAV.
Thus, Azerbaijan successfully converts its oil dollars into security.
Armenia
According to all parameters, the Armenian army is weaker than the
Azerbaijani one. Last year the military budget of Armenia didn't
surpass $447 million. 45 thousand people serve in its army. They have
200 tanks (mainly T-72), about 100 APC and 140 AFV, 240 artillery
cannons. The Air Forces have 15 attack planes (Frogfoot) and 10 Mi-24
and Mi-8/17 armored helicopters.
As for weapons procurement, Armenia is behind not only Azerbaijan,
but also Georgia. Experts complain that the sphere is kept in secret
in Yerevan. It is only known that last year Armenia received 35 T-72
tanks and 110 APC-2 and/or APC-80; several years ago it received
480 machine pistols AK-105, 36 RPK-74M machine guns, several sniper
rifles, 32 special KS-23 short rifles, 60 GP-30 grenade launchers,
10 hand-held 6G30-40mm grenade launchers and 603 pistols.
For obvious reasons, Armenia yields to Baku in the arms race. However,
the 102nd Russian military base is situated on its territory. It has
74 tanks, 17 APC, 148 BTR, 84 artillery systems, including BM-30
Smerch, 18 fighter planes (Fulcrum), air defense systems S-300V,
and Buk-M1-2. 500 soldiers who serve at the base support the balance
of forces in the region, but the Russian authorities have many times
stated that their soldiers and officers won't be involved in military
activities.
Georgia
When Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, Tbilisi's military expenditure
began to grow. In 2003 Tbilisi spent $30 million. In 2007 expenditure
grew to $1 billion - 24.5 times more. Ahead of the five-day war, it
reached 8% of GDP. However, later they reduced. Last year the military
budget of Georgia was less than $400 million. The Georgian army
reduced after the war as well. Only 20 thousand people serve in it.
They have 90 T-72 tanks, 63 APC and 137 AFV, 185 artillery cannons.
The Air Forces have 12 fighter planes (Fulcrum) and 30 carrying
helicopters Mi-8 and UH-1H Iroquois.
Before the five-day war Tbilisi purchased arms in Ukraine. Prague also
exported weapons to Georgia. After the war Tbilisi didn't purchase
any weapons for two years; but in 2011 it purchased 12 SAU 2-S1-122
mm, 1500 machine pistols, 450 man-held machine guns, and 600 grenade
launchers RPG-22 from Bulgaria. At the same time, Georgia gave up
attempts to build a powerful army and focused on building compact
armed forces which are able to hold joint operations with NATO.
However, according to some experts, when Tbilisi loses hope of
joining the alliance, it could change its view on returning Abkhazia
and South Ossetia and the need to shed the blood of its soldiers in
NATO operations.
*** So we can say that the military expenditure of Georgia will
depend on the geopolitical situation and agreements between Moscow and
Washington. The situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is different. They
are leaders in the military share of GDP in the world. Yerevan
spends 4% of its national revenues on the purposes; Baku - 6%. These
two countries of the region will continue to accumulate their armed
forces. However, experts are sure that the peaceful capacities of Baku
are quite enough for its dominance in the region - I mean financial
resources and instruments of soft power.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/57645.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress