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IRAN AND NORMALIZATION WITH THE UNITED STATES
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 18 July 2014, 10:06
There is still a long way to go until a significant normalization of
the U.S.-Iranian relations but both counties have reached understanding
of mutually favorable conditions in a regional setting, first of all
in respect of the war or radical Sunni forces against Iraq and Syria,
in respect of Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, as well as the Black
Sea-Caucasian-Caspian region.
These mutual interests have always existed but both countries were
fully satisfied with a lasting period of confrontations in these and
other directions and have arrived at final decisions on the necessity
to complete this period.
These changes have already produced some quite positive results
in political and economic developments in Iran. Inflation is down,
dynamics and real economic growth is observed, and most importantly
positive expectations have intensified, boosting investments and even
return of the Iranian capital which had left the homeland earlier. In
a political sense the situation has become more stable, the government
is more popular and different political forces have become active
and are full of hope, getting ready to embark on the domestic arena.
Iran is more confident in the dialogue not only with Russia and China
but also European countries. Iran feels that its national interests in
the Near East are highly secure, offering new proposals to Americans
rather than Arab states. It turns out that under a new war of Sunnite
orders in respect of Iraq and Syria, the United States and Iran do
not have real allies except each other.
The attempts of the United States to normalize relations with Iran
are provoked by many factors but there are two typical regional
factors - avoiding control of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, emergence of
new threats coming from Sunni states and traditional political and
religious corporations.
In Iran's policy, namely its regional policy the United States is
attracted by the fact that Iran does not put forth conditions and
pretensions and does not demand any major concessions in respect
of regions but comes up with specific tasks relating to security
problems. However, the existing situation is far from being ideal
because Iran's influence, economic and political presence in
neighboring regions is growing.
The South Caucasus has a special place in the regional dimension of
the U.S.-Iranian relations. Conceptually and in terms of strategic
doctrine the South Caucasus is being viewed by the West as a component
of the European political-ideological space which is increasingly
integrating with Europe despite Russia's efforts.
If earlier Iran feared integration of the countries of the South
Caucasus with the European Union and NATO and was therefore with
Russia, now Iran is trying to weaken the Russian influence in
the region because the Russian policy is aimed at isolation of
Iran and failure of projects of establishment of energy and other
infrastructures.
It is necessary to understand that former relations between Iran
and Russia will not repeat because Iranians are fed up with Moscow's
attempts to not allow equal relations with Tehran and regularly let
its southern partner down which is eager to set up strategic relations
with Russia.
Iran is considering Georgia as a country which chooses integration
with the Western community, as well as develops relations with Iran.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are like isolated countries but their isolation
is different. Armenia wants integration with the West which approved
any initiative of Armenia at rapprochement but undergoes strong
pressure of Russia. And Azerbaijan is considered by the West as a
highly valuable but inconvenient country for political and military
partnership.
Of course, Iran is mostly interested in saving the current position
of Azerbaijan which has to maneuver among big states. As to Armenia,
Iran is interested in its rapprochement with the West and distance
from Russia. It will ensure that Iran keeps its positions in Armenia.
September 3 and the attempts at including Armenia in the pro-Russian
Eurasian Union was a "childish game" which would collapse under the
pressure of the Western community. The Iranians have scrutinized
the situation of Armenia and concluded that after the fiasco of this
Russian project Armenia will appear in greater dependence on Iran.
Iran understands very well that the rapprochement with the United
States plays down the role of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and may play
a game with these two countries that it will prefer. It demonstrates
ability to perform functions which had earlier been performed by Turkey
and Azerbaijan. In addition, Iran is skillfully and patiently working
on the breakup of Turkey and Azerbaijan with the United States and
the West.
At first, the possibilities of Iran to destabilize the situation in
Turkey and Azerbaijan were not appreciated duly. Now this potential of
Iran has become wanted by Americans and Europeans. At the same time,
Iran is viewing Azerbaijan as an Iranized state in the future with
fragmented territory and certainly associated with Iran.
But in what situation will Armenia appear? It is possible that Armenia
will be considered in a wider scope of relations in the region,
and its situation will be more wanted.
Currently the Americans are considering a more intensive involvement of
Iran in the settlement of the Karabakh issue, and there are no doubts
that the United States is considering the role of Iran, in this case,
from the point of view of prevention of too much strengthening of
Russia and Turkey and not only in regard to the Karabakh issue.
Iran could be a partner to the United States and the West, at least
in terms of balancing relations in the South Caucasus, especially
if Turkey and Russia succeed in creating an alliance or something
like that. The United States and NATO might find it difficult to
counteract this alliance, and the importance of Iran for the West
may grow in this case.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32742#sthash.sEdBCDeG.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 18 July 2014, 10:06
There is still a long way to go until a significant normalization of
the U.S.-Iranian relations but both counties have reached understanding
of mutually favorable conditions in a regional setting, first of all
in respect of the war or radical Sunni forces against Iraq and Syria,
in respect of Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, as well as the Black
Sea-Caucasian-Caspian region.
These mutual interests have always existed but both countries were
fully satisfied with a lasting period of confrontations in these and
other directions and have arrived at final decisions on the necessity
to complete this period.
These changes have already produced some quite positive results
in political and economic developments in Iran. Inflation is down,
dynamics and real economic growth is observed, and most importantly
positive expectations have intensified, boosting investments and even
return of the Iranian capital which had left the homeland earlier. In
a political sense the situation has become more stable, the government
is more popular and different political forces have become active
and are full of hope, getting ready to embark on the domestic arena.
Iran is more confident in the dialogue not only with Russia and China
but also European countries. Iran feels that its national interests in
the Near East are highly secure, offering new proposals to Americans
rather than Arab states. It turns out that under a new war of Sunnite
orders in respect of Iraq and Syria, the United States and Iran do
not have real allies except each other.
The attempts of the United States to normalize relations with Iran
are provoked by many factors but there are two typical regional
factors - avoiding control of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, emergence of
new threats coming from Sunni states and traditional political and
religious corporations.
In Iran's policy, namely its regional policy the United States is
attracted by the fact that Iran does not put forth conditions and
pretensions and does not demand any major concessions in respect
of regions but comes up with specific tasks relating to security
problems. However, the existing situation is far from being ideal
because Iran's influence, economic and political presence in
neighboring regions is growing.
The South Caucasus has a special place in the regional dimension of
the U.S.-Iranian relations. Conceptually and in terms of strategic
doctrine the South Caucasus is being viewed by the West as a component
of the European political-ideological space which is increasingly
integrating with Europe despite Russia's efforts.
If earlier Iran feared integration of the countries of the South
Caucasus with the European Union and NATO and was therefore with
Russia, now Iran is trying to weaken the Russian influence in
the region because the Russian policy is aimed at isolation of
Iran and failure of projects of establishment of energy and other
infrastructures.
It is necessary to understand that former relations between Iran
and Russia will not repeat because Iranians are fed up with Moscow's
attempts to not allow equal relations with Tehran and regularly let
its southern partner down which is eager to set up strategic relations
with Russia.
Iran is considering Georgia as a country which chooses integration
with the Western community, as well as develops relations with Iran.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are like isolated countries but their isolation
is different. Armenia wants integration with the West which approved
any initiative of Armenia at rapprochement but undergoes strong
pressure of Russia. And Azerbaijan is considered by the West as a
highly valuable but inconvenient country for political and military
partnership.
Of course, Iran is mostly interested in saving the current position
of Azerbaijan which has to maneuver among big states. As to Armenia,
Iran is interested in its rapprochement with the West and distance
from Russia. It will ensure that Iran keeps its positions in Armenia.
September 3 and the attempts at including Armenia in the pro-Russian
Eurasian Union was a "childish game" which would collapse under the
pressure of the Western community. The Iranians have scrutinized
the situation of Armenia and concluded that after the fiasco of this
Russian project Armenia will appear in greater dependence on Iran.
Iran understands very well that the rapprochement with the United
States plays down the role of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and may play
a game with these two countries that it will prefer. It demonstrates
ability to perform functions which had earlier been performed by Turkey
and Azerbaijan. In addition, Iran is skillfully and patiently working
on the breakup of Turkey and Azerbaijan with the United States and
the West.
At first, the possibilities of Iran to destabilize the situation in
Turkey and Azerbaijan were not appreciated duly. Now this potential of
Iran has become wanted by Americans and Europeans. At the same time,
Iran is viewing Azerbaijan as an Iranized state in the future with
fragmented territory and certainly associated with Iran.
But in what situation will Armenia appear? It is possible that Armenia
will be considered in a wider scope of relations in the region,
and its situation will be more wanted.
Currently the Americans are considering a more intensive involvement of
Iran in the settlement of the Karabakh issue, and there are no doubts
that the United States is considering the role of Iran, in this case,
from the point of view of prevention of too much strengthening of
Russia and Turkey and not only in regard to the Karabakh issue.
Iran could be a partner to the United States and the West, at least
in terms of balancing relations in the South Caucasus, especially
if Turkey and Russia succeed in creating an alliance or something
like that. The United States and NATO might find it difficult to
counteract this alliance, and the importance of Iran for the West
may grow in this case.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32742#sthash.sEdBCDeG.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress