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ALEPPO'S FALL COULD PROVE TURNING POINT
15.07.2014
The Syrian army is advancing to retake the country's largest city,
Aleppo, which would deliver a devastating blow to the opposition
after two years of stalemate. Doctors are preparing for the worst.
Aleppo, formerly Syria's commercial hub, has been the target of the
conflict's most vicious air campaign, with government barrel bombs -
oil drums packed with hundreds of kilograms of explosives and metal
fragments - killing thousands in the rebel-held areas this year.
Fears of a siege by government forces have risen after the army
made dramatic gains in the last two weeks, taking the Sheikh Naijar
industrial zone in the northeast.
The army is focused on capturing Handarat camp, an area beside Aleppo
Central prison, which, if successful, would put the government in a
position to besiege an estimated 300,000 civilians remaining in the
city and cut off the rebels' main supply route in the countryside.
The advance follows months of slow gains by government forces as
President Bashar al-Assad prepares to be sworn in for a new seven-year
term this week.
Since the conflict in Aleppo began in mid-2012, the government has
controlled the south and west but has been unable to push rebel
fighters out of the city after they entered from the north.
Political prize
Yezid Sayigh, senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center
in Beirut, said the recapture of Aleppo would constitute a shift in
the conflict.
"The retaking of Aleppo would represent a big blow in terms of morale
and political significance," he told DW. "For the regime to reassert
effective control of the city is a big signal of its ability to turn
the tide and fight its way back. It doesn't represent a major military
prize, but a political one."
Sayigh said it was likely government forces would encircle the city.
"The regime would prefer to encircle because it's a relatively easier
task. It won't necessarily go in but it will besiege, starve and bomb.
But taking neighborhoods and an estimated 300,000 people won't
be easy."
Siege preparation
The siege and potential fall of Aleppo to the Syrian army could prove
decisive in the conflict
Doctors on the ground told DW they were preparing for the worst. "The
situation is very horrible," one doctor, who didn't want to be named
for security reasons, said. "There is enough medicine for now but
we are working to store more to have enough for the longest time
possible. It is the same situation for food. We must try to make
something for our country."
Another doctor added that there were no more than 20 doctors on the
ground - a far cry from the 6,000 in the city before the war.
He expressed concern about increasing barrel bombs on the city, which
had also recently targeted a few of the remaining functional hospitals.
"We have enough medical supplies for one month," said Muhammed,
a medical supplier in Aleppo. "But we really need external fixation
and anesthesia."
Revolution over?
Despite the situation in Aleppo deteriorating rapidly, Oubai
Shahbandar, a spokesperson for the Syrian National Coalition, said
the opposition would fight the battle until the end.
"The Assad regime is dependent upon Iranian military forces and
Hezbollah militias in their attempt to encircle Aleppo," he said.
"Syrian revolutionary forces are dug in and are fiercely fighting back
in order to protect the inhabitants of Aleppo city and the surrounding
countryside. Assad's tanks cannot destroy a revolution."
Anas Al-Haj from the Revolutionary Military Council of Aleppo stressed
that the opposition was not only facing government forces but also
those of the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS,
which recently pushed into the Aleppo countryside.
"The regime doesn't want to attack the city, it just wants to create
a siege. We have the regime on one side and ISIS on the other."
Al-Haj said that rebel groups were increasingly coordinated, boosted
by a 600-strong elite force to combat the offensive.
"The problem is that we can't see any soldiers because the whole
battle is overhead - just barrels and more barrels," he added.
Civilians are trying to get away while they can
"Innocent people are trying to leave the city but the poor people
can't leave Aleppo city because they have no money to get toTurkey or
to the countryside. But even if the regime makes a siege, he cannot
do what he [Assad - the ed.] thinks because we have the ability to
break the siege and we will do our best."
But political analyst Sayigh was more skeptical. "I think the rebels
are unable to win. This is not to say that people aren't resisting
and fighting back. But as a political set of structures that aims to
achieve battlefield results on the ground, I think they peaked already
a while back and I don't think they're able to deliver results."
http://www.dw.de/aleppos-fall-could-prove-turning-point/a-17786371
15.07.2014
The Syrian army is advancing to retake the country's largest city,
Aleppo, which would deliver a devastating blow to the opposition
after two years of stalemate. Doctors are preparing for the worst.
Aleppo, formerly Syria's commercial hub, has been the target of the
conflict's most vicious air campaign, with government barrel bombs -
oil drums packed with hundreds of kilograms of explosives and metal
fragments - killing thousands in the rebel-held areas this year.
Fears of a siege by government forces have risen after the army
made dramatic gains in the last two weeks, taking the Sheikh Naijar
industrial zone in the northeast.
The army is focused on capturing Handarat camp, an area beside Aleppo
Central prison, which, if successful, would put the government in a
position to besiege an estimated 300,000 civilians remaining in the
city and cut off the rebels' main supply route in the countryside.
The advance follows months of slow gains by government forces as
President Bashar al-Assad prepares to be sworn in for a new seven-year
term this week.
Since the conflict in Aleppo began in mid-2012, the government has
controlled the south and west but has been unable to push rebel
fighters out of the city after they entered from the north.
Political prize
Yezid Sayigh, senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center
in Beirut, said the recapture of Aleppo would constitute a shift in
the conflict.
"The retaking of Aleppo would represent a big blow in terms of morale
and political significance," he told DW. "For the regime to reassert
effective control of the city is a big signal of its ability to turn
the tide and fight its way back. It doesn't represent a major military
prize, but a political one."
Sayigh said it was likely government forces would encircle the city.
"The regime would prefer to encircle because it's a relatively easier
task. It won't necessarily go in but it will besiege, starve and bomb.
But taking neighborhoods and an estimated 300,000 people won't
be easy."
Siege preparation
The siege and potential fall of Aleppo to the Syrian army could prove
decisive in the conflict
Doctors on the ground told DW they were preparing for the worst. "The
situation is very horrible," one doctor, who didn't want to be named
for security reasons, said. "There is enough medicine for now but
we are working to store more to have enough for the longest time
possible. It is the same situation for food. We must try to make
something for our country."
Another doctor added that there were no more than 20 doctors on the
ground - a far cry from the 6,000 in the city before the war.
He expressed concern about increasing barrel bombs on the city, which
had also recently targeted a few of the remaining functional hospitals.
"We have enough medical supplies for one month," said Muhammed,
a medical supplier in Aleppo. "But we really need external fixation
and anesthesia."
Revolution over?
Despite the situation in Aleppo deteriorating rapidly, Oubai
Shahbandar, a spokesperson for the Syrian National Coalition, said
the opposition would fight the battle until the end.
"The Assad regime is dependent upon Iranian military forces and
Hezbollah militias in their attempt to encircle Aleppo," he said.
"Syrian revolutionary forces are dug in and are fiercely fighting back
in order to protect the inhabitants of Aleppo city and the surrounding
countryside. Assad's tanks cannot destroy a revolution."
Anas Al-Haj from the Revolutionary Military Council of Aleppo stressed
that the opposition was not only facing government forces but also
those of the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS,
which recently pushed into the Aleppo countryside.
"The regime doesn't want to attack the city, it just wants to create
a siege. We have the regime on one side and ISIS on the other."
Al-Haj said that rebel groups were increasingly coordinated, boosted
by a 600-strong elite force to combat the offensive.
"The problem is that we can't see any soldiers because the whole
battle is overhead - just barrels and more barrels," he added.
Civilians are trying to get away while they can
"Innocent people are trying to leave the city but the poor people
can't leave Aleppo city because they have no money to get toTurkey or
to the countryside. But even if the regime makes a siege, he cannot
do what he [Assad - the ed.] thinks because we have the ability to
break the siege and we will do our best."
But political analyst Sayigh was more skeptical. "I think the rebels
are unable to win. This is not to say that people aren't resisting
and fighting back. But as a political set of structures that aims to
achieve battlefield results on the ground, I think they peaked already
a while back and I don't think they're able to deliver results."
http://www.dw.de/aleppos-fall-could-prove-turning-point/a-17786371