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BIG CAUCASUS GAME: IRANIAN GAS SEEN AS MAJOR PART OF REGIONAL EQUATION
Analysis | 21.07.14 | 10:35
Photolure
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Late last week, Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Reisi called
a press conference during which he made a number of statements that
were described by many Armenian media as "sensational". Political
analysts have called them Iran's new proposals that show that Tehran
enters into open competition with Moscow for influence in Armenia.
The most sensational was the proposal to Armenia regarding the transit
of gas from Iran to Georgia and from there to Europe via Armenia. It is
for the first time that such a proposal is made openly. The ambassador
said that in case of Armenia's consent it could sell cheaper gas to
Armenia, and Armenia's energy minister will soon visit Tehran where
he is likely to discuss the matter.
Last December Armenia tied itself with Russia with what many consider
to be a fettering agreement, according to which, in fact, for 30
years it will not be able to make decisions in the gas sector without
Gazprom's permission. The Russian state-run corporation supplies
natural gas to Armenia and its subsidiary distributes it in the
country on a monopoly basis and will not allow the entry of less
expensive gas. But most importantly, Iran is gradually becoming the
most powerful rival of Russia in the European gas market, and Moscow
is trying to block all possible ways for Iranian gas to reach Europe.
By the way, the ambassador said that the likelihood of resumed
hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone is small and that Iran
does not want destabilization in the region. He also said that to
his knowledge, there are no Turkish military units in Nakhijevan. It
looks like Iran's 'calming' Armenia, which usually rejects favorable
economic and political projects, citing the threat of destabilization
in the region. In fact, Iran, through its ambassador, said that there
are no threats in the region, that Tehran will take care of that and
now Armenia should not be afraid to make an important step.
The next remarkable statement was that Iran is not interested in
the appearance of third countries' troops in the Karabakh conflict
zone, because "it will become a threat to the whole region." In fact,
Iran says that it has the leverage that it will use not to allow the
entry of other forces, including Russian troops, into the region,
and, accordingly, will not allow the partition of Karabakh. Some
experts believe that the function of peacekeeping forces in the
Karabakh conflict would come down to ensuring a "peaceful" division
of the territory currently controlled by Nagorno-Karabakh. And this
is another "guarantee" of Iran to Armenia, which is not interested
in the deployment of peacekeepers and the partition of Karabakh.
The Armenian-Russian gas agreement and a broader range of interests
of Russia in Armenia has become a major obstacle not only to the
development of Armenia and the removal of its economic blockade,
but also a barrier to the opening of the entire region. The revision
of the agreement is not a very simple matter, and the only "occasion"
could be Georgia's changing its attitude towards the transit of Russian
gas to Armenia through its territory. On July 18, Georgia ratified
the agreement on joining the Free Trade Area with the European Union,
and when this agreement is ratified by all EU member states, Georgia
can, in agreement with Brussels, change the rules for the transit
of Russian gas to Armenia, which, in turn, may become a reason for
denunciation of the agreement. And then Armenia will have nothing
left but to start negotiations with Iran.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/56198/armenia_iran_natural_gas_transit_ambassador
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Analysis | 21.07.14 | 10:35
Photolure
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Late last week, Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Reisi called
a press conference during which he made a number of statements that
were described by many Armenian media as "sensational". Political
analysts have called them Iran's new proposals that show that Tehran
enters into open competition with Moscow for influence in Armenia.
The most sensational was the proposal to Armenia regarding the transit
of gas from Iran to Georgia and from there to Europe via Armenia. It is
for the first time that such a proposal is made openly. The ambassador
said that in case of Armenia's consent it could sell cheaper gas to
Armenia, and Armenia's energy minister will soon visit Tehran where
he is likely to discuss the matter.
Last December Armenia tied itself with Russia with what many consider
to be a fettering agreement, according to which, in fact, for 30
years it will not be able to make decisions in the gas sector without
Gazprom's permission. The Russian state-run corporation supplies
natural gas to Armenia and its subsidiary distributes it in the
country on a monopoly basis and will not allow the entry of less
expensive gas. But most importantly, Iran is gradually becoming the
most powerful rival of Russia in the European gas market, and Moscow
is trying to block all possible ways for Iranian gas to reach Europe.
By the way, the ambassador said that the likelihood of resumed
hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone is small and that Iran
does not want destabilization in the region. He also said that to
his knowledge, there are no Turkish military units in Nakhijevan. It
looks like Iran's 'calming' Armenia, which usually rejects favorable
economic and political projects, citing the threat of destabilization
in the region. In fact, Iran, through its ambassador, said that there
are no threats in the region, that Tehran will take care of that and
now Armenia should not be afraid to make an important step.
The next remarkable statement was that Iran is not interested in
the appearance of third countries' troops in the Karabakh conflict
zone, because "it will become a threat to the whole region." In fact,
Iran says that it has the leverage that it will use not to allow the
entry of other forces, including Russian troops, into the region,
and, accordingly, will not allow the partition of Karabakh. Some
experts believe that the function of peacekeeping forces in the
Karabakh conflict would come down to ensuring a "peaceful" division
of the territory currently controlled by Nagorno-Karabakh. And this
is another "guarantee" of Iran to Armenia, which is not interested
in the deployment of peacekeepers and the partition of Karabakh.
The Armenian-Russian gas agreement and a broader range of interests
of Russia in Armenia has become a major obstacle not only to the
development of Armenia and the removal of its economic blockade,
but also a barrier to the opening of the entire region. The revision
of the agreement is not a very simple matter, and the only "occasion"
could be Georgia's changing its attitude towards the transit of Russian
gas to Armenia through its territory. On July 18, Georgia ratified
the agreement on joining the Free Trade Area with the European Union,
and when this agreement is ratified by all EU member states, Georgia
can, in agreement with Brussels, change the rules for the transit
of Russian gas to Armenia, which, in turn, may become a reason for
denunciation of the agreement. And then Armenia will have nothing
left but to start negotiations with Iran.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/56198/armenia_iran_natural_gas_transit_ambassador
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress