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Tengri News, Kazakhstan
July 21 2014
Ukraine risks repeating Afghanistan scenario: Kazakh analyst
by By Dinara Urazova
The protracted conflict in Ukraine may lead to the country repeating
the scenario of Balkan military confrontation in the 1990s with a
possible evolution into another Afghanistan, Tengrinews cites Kazakh
political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
Satpayev believes that the conflict in Ukraine has stirred memories of
old national and ethnic tensions that were observed in the dissolution
of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, such as the territorial dispute of
Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moldova's breakaway
republic of Transdniester (or Transnistria) located on the border with
Ukraine and the civil war in Tajikistan.
The analyst stressed the necessity to stabilize the situation in
Ukraine because separatist moods affected not only neighboring
countries. "Most likely, even Moscow has come to understand that it
does not fully control the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. And provision
of support to the forces that are trying to split the east of Ukraine
from the rest of the country is a very serious threat. In case the
Ukrainian conflict escalates into a permanent zone of instability, the
situation will affect not only this country's neighbors. The tragedy
with the airliner has shown that conflicts may affect citizens of
countries, which are geographically distant from the conflict zones.
If the situation is transposed to Central Asia, it would clearly
highlight quite a few potential conflict zones in our region, some of
which are connected to separatist inclinations," he said.
Satpayev said that the conflict was on the stage of balkanisation: a
surge of separatism and proclamation of new states. The expert was
convinced that a new Afghanistan could emerge in the center of Europe
if the conflict was not resolved at the current stage. "The war has
been going on for some time already and the international community
has had to put much effort into regulating the conflict. (...)
Currently, Ukraine is entering the balkanization stage. The worst case
scenario is for this balkanization to evolve into afghanization: when
Ukraine turns into a zone of constant instability, where different
armed groups operate without control from anyone - neither the West,
nor Moscow - and power is not in the hands of politicians but in those
of warlords."
He also said that Ukraine could repeat the fate of Chechnya. "Some
experts have rightly stated that Ukraine may come to be an analog of
Chechnya, where many representatives of radical organization had
received military training. In the future, similar individuals may
appear in other post-Soviet countries, and the question of national
security will come forward, in Kazakhstan as well," Satpayev said.
The conflict in Ukraine has taken a new turn last week. Malaysia
Airlines passenger airplane with 298 people on board was shot down by
a surface-to-air missile over the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's
Republic. Russia, Ukraine and the separatists have all given different
versions of what happened. International investigators are trying to
get access to physical evidence, which might help to reconstruct the
crash in rebel-controlled territory.
http://en.tengrinews.kz/politics_sub/Ukraine-risks-repeating-Afghanistan-scenario-Kazakh-analyst-254898/
From: A. Papazian
July 21 2014
Ukraine risks repeating Afghanistan scenario: Kazakh analyst
by By Dinara Urazova
The protracted conflict in Ukraine may lead to the country repeating
the scenario of Balkan military confrontation in the 1990s with a
possible evolution into another Afghanistan, Tengrinews cites Kazakh
political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
Satpayev believes that the conflict in Ukraine has stirred memories of
old national and ethnic tensions that were observed in the dissolution
of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, such as the territorial dispute of
Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Moldova's breakaway
republic of Transdniester (or Transnistria) located on the border with
Ukraine and the civil war in Tajikistan.
The analyst stressed the necessity to stabilize the situation in
Ukraine because separatist moods affected not only neighboring
countries. "Most likely, even Moscow has come to understand that it
does not fully control the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. And provision
of support to the forces that are trying to split the east of Ukraine
from the rest of the country is a very serious threat. In case the
Ukrainian conflict escalates into a permanent zone of instability, the
situation will affect not only this country's neighbors. The tragedy
with the airliner has shown that conflicts may affect citizens of
countries, which are geographically distant from the conflict zones.
If the situation is transposed to Central Asia, it would clearly
highlight quite a few potential conflict zones in our region, some of
which are connected to separatist inclinations," he said.
Satpayev said that the conflict was on the stage of balkanisation: a
surge of separatism and proclamation of new states. The expert was
convinced that a new Afghanistan could emerge in the center of Europe
if the conflict was not resolved at the current stage. "The war has
been going on for some time already and the international community
has had to put much effort into regulating the conflict. (...)
Currently, Ukraine is entering the balkanization stage. The worst case
scenario is for this balkanization to evolve into afghanization: when
Ukraine turns into a zone of constant instability, where different
armed groups operate without control from anyone - neither the West,
nor Moscow - and power is not in the hands of politicians but in those
of warlords."
He also said that Ukraine could repeat the fate of Chechnya. "Some
experts have rightly stated that Ukraine may come to be an analog of
Chechnya, where many representatives of radical organization had
received military training. In the future, similar individuals may
appear in other post-Soviet countries, and the question of national
security will come forward, in Kazakhstan as well," Satpayev said.
The conflict in Ukraine has taken a new turn last week. Malaysia
Airlines passenger airplane with 298 people on board was shot down by
a surface-to-air missile over the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's
Republic. Russia, Ukraine and the separatists have all given different
versions of what happened. International investigators are trying to
get access to physical evidence, which might help to reconstruct the
crash in rebel-controlled territory.
http://en.tengrinews.kz/politics_sub/Ukraine-risks-repeating-Afghanistan-scenario-Kazakh-analyst-254898/
From: A. Papazian