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Will Armenian-Russian Gas Deal Be Revised?
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 21 July 2014, 18:07
The Iranian ambassador Mohammad Reisi has announced that soon the
minister of energy of Armenia Yervand Zakharyan will visit Iran to
discuss transportation of the Iranian gas across Armenia and the gas
price.
Official Yerevan has not commented on the ambassador's statements, he
neither dismissed, nor confirmed. The ex-minister of energy Armen
Movsisyan and the foreign minister Edward Nalbandyan used to leave for
Tehran after such statements and apparently asked the Iranian side not
to corner the Armenian side. Apparently, they "explained" that they
cannot allow transportation of gas via Armenia and buy Iranian gas
more cheaply because according to the deal with Russia Armenia must
buy Russian gas for 30 years.
The Armenian government has tied Armenia's hands for 30 years but this
is just a paper which can be discarded any time in case circumstances
change.
And the circumstances are obviously changing. Although Iran and the
West have decided to put off the final agreement on normalization, the
U.S. Secretary General has announced that the United States unfreezes
the Iranian bank accounts of 2.8 billion dollars.
Another important circumstance is the U.S. sanctions on Gazprom, with
Europe preparing to do the same.
This means that Georgia, having signed the Association Agreement with
the European Union, may join the sanctions and announce that it will
not allow transportation of Gazprom's gas to Armenia or limit supply.
In other words, the Armenian-Russian gas agreement may lose its force
because Gazprom will not be able to supply gas to Armenia, at least
with the former quantity and prices. And Armenia will have the ground
for denouncing the deal. These are not empty scenarios but a realistic
prospect. And Armenia must get ready for it, discussing the Iranian
proposals. Unprecedented prospects are opening up for our country, and
it depends on the extent of our freedom to what extend we will benefit
from those prospects. The government of Armenia has cornered itself,
however, psychologically it is even less free than the corner allows
for. As soon as a person crosses the invisible circle which it has
drawn for itself, it suddenly feels its power and abilities that
enables the freedom of actions.
A vivid example of this is the Armenian army. Despite the tough
pressure of Russia, the leadership of the army has announced that
Armenia needs peacekeepers and will be fighting for every patch of
land. And it has produced its effect.
Such statements are needed in the sphere of politics and diplomacy.
Not the Iranian ambassador but the minister of energy of Armenia must
announce about the Iranian alternative. The Armenian foreign minister,
not the Georgian ambassador should have announced after the trip of
the Armenian president to Tbilisi that Georgia is not going to revise
its current relations with Armenia until it joins the Eurasian Union.
The silence of Armenia in this and many other issues sounds funny.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32756#sthash.qyjsqHpB.dpuf
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 21 July 2014, 18:07
The Iranian ambassador Mohammad Reisi has announced that soon the
minister of energy of Armenia Yervand Zakharyan will visit Iran to
discuss transportation of the Iranian gas across Armenia and the gas
price.
Official Yerevan has not commented on the ambassador's statements, he
neither dismissed, nor confirmed. The ex-minister of energy Armen
Movsisyan and the foreign minister Edward Nalbandyan used to leave for
Tehran after such statements and apparently asked the Iranian side not
to corner the Armenian side. Apparently, they "explained" that they
cannot allow transportation of gas via Armenia and buy Iranian gas
more cheaply because according to the deal with Russia Armenia must
buy Russian gas for 30 years.
The Armenian government has tied Armenia's hands for 30 years but this
is just a paper which can be discarded any time in case circumstances
change.
And the circumstances are obviously changing. Although Iran and the
West have decided to put off the final agreement on normalization, the
U.S. Secretary General has announced that the United States unfreezes
the Iranian bank accounts of 2.8 billion dollars.
Another important circumstance is the U.S. sanctions on Gazprom, with
Europe preparing to do the same.
This means that Georgia, having signed the Association Agreement with
the European Union, may join the sanctions and announce that it will
not allow transportation of Gazprom's gas to Armenia or limit supply.
In other words, the Armenian-Russian gas agreement may lose its force
because Gazprom will not be able to supply gas to Armenia, at least
with the former quantity and prices. And Armenia will have the ground
for denouncing the deal. These are not empty scenarios but a realistic
prospect. And Armenia must get ready for it, discussing the Iranian
proposals. Unprecedented prospects are opening up for our country, and
it depends on the extent of our freedom to what extend we will benefit
from those prospects. The government of Armenia has cornered itself,
however, psychologically it is even less free than the corner allows
for. As soon as a person crosses the invisible circle which it has
drawn for itself, it suddenly feels its power and abilities that
enables the freedom of actions.
A vivid example of this is the Armenian army. Despite the tough
pressure of Russia, the leadership of the army has announced that
Armenia needs peacekeepers and will be fighting for every patch of
land. And it has produced its effect.
Such statements are needed in the sphere of politics and diplomacy.
Not the Iranian ambassador but the minister of energy of Armenia must
announce about the Iranian alternative. The Armenian foreign minister,
not the Georgian ambassador should have announced after the trip of
the Armenian president to Tbilisi that Georgia is not going to revise
its current relations with Armenia until it joins the Eurasian Union.
The silence of Armenia in this and many other issues sounds funny.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32756#sthash.qyjsqHpB.dpuf