Tweet
United States Cuts Turkey From South Caucasus
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 23 July 2014, 14:54
The Black Sea and Caucasus is the second important region in the
U.S.-Turkey relations after the Near East in terms of regional policy.
Regarding the Near East, the United States and Turkey have specific
arrangements that have become the rules of their cooperation and
interaction. These agreements in a hookup can be characterized in the
following way: the United States and Turkey are reaching agreements on
regional policy observing priorities of relations in the framework of
the Atlantic alliance. Turkey limits its expansion in the regions and
builds its regional policy with consideration of interests and
agreements with the United States. Turkey is not limited in its
regional policy, considering economic tasks except global economic
projects which are related to the interests and security of the
western community (first of all, energy projects are meant). The
United States and Turkey interact both within the framework of NATO
and directly in the sphere of international and national security,
including military and technical cooperation and military basing.
Although the mentioned arrangements existed for decades, the point is
that over the second half of the 2000s the United States and Turkey
actually confirmed these duties, considering that the U.S.-Turkish
relations have been deteriorating over the past few years.
Turkey has already demonstrated its reserved attitude to developments
and processes in the Near East and the Black Sea and Caucasus. The
Turkish policy on Syria, according to most experts and politicians, is
implemented in dark cooperation. In addition, it should be noted that
coldness and distance have occurred between Turkey and the European
Union, which has had Turkey obey Turkish American interests.
At the same time, both American and European experts agree that these
agreements between the United States and Turkey are, at best, mid-term
agreements and will last from 5 to 15 years and even this relatively
small period of time may demonstrate the instability and changeability
in the U.S.-Turkish relations.
One way or another, basic issues in the U.S.-Turkish relations are
being solved and will be resolved on the arena of the Middle East. The
United States prefers avoiding spending and responsibility for the
situation in this region and hope that Turkey will be sufficiently
helpful to their plans and intentions.
At the same time, the social and political processes taking place in
Turkey rule out the former models which the United States applied to
Turkey, first of all, viewing it as a democratic and secular state.
The U.S. policy will increasingly contain persistent requirements to
Turkey in respect to internal order and ideology, Americans are and
will continue to be interested in Turkey's restraint in regional
policy, exclusion of expansionist and aggressive intentions.
In fact, the United States is not interested in Turkey as an active
military partner and ally. At best, Turkey is considered as a passive
partner in the sphere of defense and security. The complete absence of
political activity of Turkey regarding the key regions is the ideal
variant for the United States. Since this is practically impossible,
the United States has to conduct a combined and delicate policy in
regard to Turkey, applying means of containment and initiatives.
In addition, the impression is that the U.S. policy on the role and
place of Turkey in the Black Sea and Caucasian region has not been
elaborated. It might be possible to refer to Washington's concerns
about domestic and economic issues, saying that the American
administration does not have time to deal with regional issues. The
Black Sea-Caucasian region is, nevertheless, considered by the
Americans as a region of "second level of significance", and the U.S.
interests on Eurasia depend on this a lot, first of all in terms of
military transit in the direction of Afghanistan, and in the definite
future, such a global issue as containment of China's expansion.
Therefore, the United States cannot minimize attention to the South
Caucasus. The United States is viewing it as a region where it holds
"controlling interest" for political decisions though Russia, Turkey
and Iran do have a strong influence on this region.
The United States has formed definite relations and geopolitical
influence on the South Caucasus where they are, first of all,
interested in the security of the transit corridor from the Black Sea
to the Caspian Sea. The current situation in the region, though not
fully but is OK for the United States, and they are not trying to
change the situation drastically.
In regard to Turkey's role in the South Caucasus Washington has three
opinions. More traditional evaluations relate to ideas of partnership
with Turkey and support to the implementation of the doctrine of
pan-Turkism. A supporter of this idea is currently Zbignew Brzezinski
who has called to support Turkey in the direction of Central Asia.
These ideas have not become underlying in actual American politics but
it is obvious that this doctrine is again closely studied in
Washington.
The supporters of this doctrine bring such an argument: the lack of
American support to the Turkish policy has made efforts futile and
actually led to failure of the U.S. policy on Central Asia. Another
argument is that the direction of the Turkish politics towards Central
Asia distracts it from the Near East, and Ankara has already
acknowledged the plans of neo-Ottomanism and is ready to return to the
doctrine of pan-Turkism.
However, no matter how the pan-Turkism plans are interpreted and
structured, this doctrine must affect the South Caucasus. Therefore,
this idea is quite hostile to the opponents of pan-Turkism.
Along with these ideas there are supporters of continuation of pushing
Turkey into the European Union who think that the United States has
not been sufficiently committed to this goal, which would allow
"tying" Turkey to the Western community and, at the same time, shift
the center of gravity in Europe towards the southeast, which will
weaken France and Germany as main opponents of the United States in
NATO and Europe.
The European "vector" only seems to distract Turkey from the urge to
establish its influence on neighboring regions. In reality, admitting
Turkey to the European Union will make its dominance over neighboring
regions obvious.
Conceptually, the third approach has not been elaborated and is
related to notions of Turkey's containment along the full perimeter of
borders. In addition, this objective is achieved not only by the U.S.
but also its partners in the regions of the Near East, South Caucasus
and the Black Sea, the Balkans. In fact, this idea has become more
actual and demanded in the past few years.
It is possible to assume that the Americans fear continuation of this
policy which supposes certain coercion on Turkey, establishment of
strong control on it. Apparently, the United States would like to set
up more organic relations with Turkey and thereby minimize costs on
achievement of geopolitical goals. At any rate, the concept of
containment has enabled the United States to minimize Turkey's
ambitions, thwart its plans for expansion and strengthening influence
on the Near East.
Besides, this U.S. policy has called certain understanding and
solidarity in Europe and the Arab states. Without efforts from the
side of the United States, Turkey was unable to set up closer and more
reliable relations with Russia and Iran.
Without special spending of political and economic resources this
policy of the United States has led to control over Turkey, subjecting
it to the interests of the United States. One may assume that the
United States which successfully prevented strengthening of Turkey's
influence will revise its position and support it in the Central Asian
direction. Proceeding from these assumptions one can state for sure
that the United States will continue to view the South Caucasus as a
factor of containment of Turkish expansion.
At present, the United States does not demonstrate willingness to see
growing influence of the United States on Georgia, is trying to set up
a distance between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The process of settlement of
Turkish-Armenian relations was planned and implemented by the United
States to strengthen the "Armenian factor" in containment of Turkey to
achieve success in case of any scenario (opening of borders or
blockade of Armenia).
Currently, the United States is forming (with some delay) a logistical
strategy of military transit from the Black Sea to Central Asia
(keeping in mind Afghanistan and the western borders of China).
The United States is conducting a clear-cut policy of encouraging
democratization of Armenia and legitimization of the government
because this condition is highly important for building deeper
partnership between the United States and Armenia.
Hence, the United States is viewing Turkey as a partner in the
processes going on in the South Caucasus and in the solution of
problems in the region. The United States has spent too much time and
effort on setting a distance between Turkey and the South Caucasus to
change its goals and objectives radically.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32759#sthash.FeMBmIng.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 23 July 2014, 14:54
The Black Sea and Caucasus is the second important region in the
U.S.-Turkey relations after the Near East in terms of regional policy.
Regarding the Near East, the United States and Turkey have specific
arrangements that have become the rules of their cooperation and
interaction. These agreements in a hookup can be characterized in the
following way: the United States and Turkey are reaching agreements on
regional policy observing priorities of relations in the framework of
the Atlantic alliance. Turkey limits its expansion in the regions and
builds its regional policy with consideration of interests and
agreements with the United States. Turkey is not limited in its
regional policy, considering economic tasks except global economic
projects which are related to the interests and security of the
western community (first of all, energy projects are meant). The
United States and Turkey interact both within the framework of NATO
and directly in the sphere of international and national security,
including military and technical cooperation and military basing.
Although the mentioned arrangements existed for decades, the point is
that over the second half of the 2000s the United States and Turkey
actually confirmed these duties, considering that the U.S.-Turkish
relations have been deteriorating over the past few years.
Turkey has already demonstrated its reserved attitude to developments
and processes in the Near East and the Black Sea and Caucasus. The
Turkish policy on Syria, according to most experts and politicians, is
implemented in dark cooperation. In addition, it should be noted that
coldness and distance have occurred between Turkey and the European
Union, which has had Turkey obey Turkish American interests.
At the same time, both American and European experts agree that these
agreements between the United States and Turkey are, at best, mid-term
agreements and will last from 5 to 15 years and even this relatively
small period of time may demonstrate the instability and changeability
in the U.S.-Turkish relations.
One way or another, basic issues in the U.S.-Turkish relations are
being solved and will be resolved on the arena of the Middle East. The
United States prefers avoiding spending and responsibility for the
situation in this region and hope that Turkey will be sufficiently
helpful to their plans and intentions.
At the same time, the social and political processes taking place in
Turkey rule out the former models which the United States applied to
Turkey, first of all, viewing it as a democratic and secular state.
The U.S. policy will increasingly contain persistent requirements to
Turkey in respect to internal order and ideology, Americans are and
will continue to be interested in Turkey's restraint in regional
policy, exclusion of expansionist and aggressive intentions.
In fact, the United States is not interested in Turkey as an active
military partner and ally. At best, Turkey is considered as a passive
partner in the sphere of defense and security. The complete absence of
political activity of Turkey regarding the key regions is the ideal
variant for the United States. Since this is practically impossible,
the United States has to conduct a combined and delicate policy in
regard to Turkey, applying means of containment and initiatives.
In addition, the impression is that the U.S. policy on the role and
place of Turkey in the Black Sea and Caucasian region has not been
elaborated. It might be possible to refer to Washington's concerns
about domestic and economic issues, saying that the American
administration does not have time to deal with regional issues. The
Black Sea-Caucasian region is, nevertheless, considered by the
Americans as a region of "second level of significance", and the U.S.
interests on Eurasia depend on this a lot, first of all in terms of
military transit in the direction of Afghanistan, and in the definite
future, such a global issue as containment of China's expansion.
Therefore, the United States cannot minimize attention to the South
Caucasus. The United States is viewing it as a region where it holds
"controlling interest" for political decisions though Russia, Turkey
and Iran do have a strong influence on this region.
The United States has formed definite relations and geopolitical
influence on the South Caucasus where they are, first of all,
interested in the security of the transit corridor from the Black Sea
to the Caspian Sea. The current situation in the region, though not
fully but is OK for the United States, and they are not trying to
change the situation drastically.
In regard to Turkey's role in the South Caucasus Washington has three
opinions. More traditional evaluations relate to ideas of partnership
with Turkey and support to the implementation of the doctrine of
pan-Turkism. A supporter of this idea is currently Zbignew Brzezinski
who has called to support Turkey in the direction of Central Asia.
These ideas have not become underlying in actual American politics but
it is obvious that this doctrine is again closely studied in
Washington.
The supporters of this doctrine bring such an argument: the lack of
American support to the Turkish policy has made efforts futile and
actually led to failure of the U.S. policy on Central Asia. Another
argument is that the direction of the Turkish politics towards Central
Asia distracts it from the Near East, and Ankara has already
acknowledged the plans of neo-Ottomanism and is ready to return to the
doctrine of pan-Turkism.
However, no matter how the pan-Turkism plans are interpreted and
structured, this doctrine must affect the South Caucasus. Therefore,
this idea is quite hostile to the opponents of pan-Turkism.
Along with these ideas there are supporters of continuation of pushing
Turkey into the European Union who think that the United States has
not been sufficiently committed to this goal, which would allow
"tying" Turkey to the Western community and, at the same time, shift
the center of gravity in Europe towards the southeast, which will
weaken France and Germany as main opponents of the United States in
NATO and Europe.
The European "vector" only seems to distract Turkey from the urge to
establish its influence on neighboring regions. In reality, admitting
Turkey to the European Union will make its dominance over neighboring
regions obvious.
Conceptually, the third approach has not been elaborated and is
related to notions of Turkey's containment along the full perimeter of
borders. In addition, this objective is achieved not only by the U.S.
but also its partners in the regions of the Near East, South Caucasus
and the Black Sea, the Balkans. In fact, this idea has become more
actual and demanded in the past few years.
It is possible to assume that the Americans fear continuation of this
policy which supposes certain coercion on Turkey, establishment of
strong control on it. Apparently, the United States would like to set
up more organic relations with Turkey and thereby minimize costs on
achievement of geopolitical goals. At any rate, the concept of
containment has enabled the United States to minimize Turkey's
ambitions, thwart its plans for expansion and strengthening influence
on the Near East.
Besides, this U.S. policy has called certain understanding and
solidarity in Europe and the Arab states. Without efforts from the
side of the United States, Turkey was unable to set up closer and more
reliable relations with Russia and Iran.
Without special spending of political and economic resources this
policy of the United States has led to control over Turkey, subjecting
it to the interests of the United States. One may assume that the
United States which successfully prevented strengthening of Turkey's
influence will revise its position and support it in the Central Asian
direction. Proceeding from these assumptions one can state for sure
that the United States will continue to view the South Caucasus as a
factor of containment of Turkish expansion.
At present, the United States does not demonstrate willingness to see
growing influence of the United States on Georgia, is trying to set up
a distance between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The process of settlement of
Turkish-Armenian relations was planned and implemented by the United
States to strengthen the "Armenian factor" in containment of Turkey to
achieve success in case of any scenario (opening of borders or
blockade of Armenia).
Currently, the United States is forming (with some delay) a logistical
strategy of military transit from the Black Sea to Central Asia
(keeping in mind Afghanistan and the western borders of China).
The United States is conducting a clear-cut policy of encouraging
democratization of Armenia and legitimization of the government
because this condition is highly important for building deeper
partnership between the United States and Armenia.
Hence, the United States is viewing Turkey as a partner in the
processes going on in the South Caucasus and in the solution of
problems in the region. The United States has spent too much time and
effort on setting a distance between Turkey and the South Caucasus to
change its goals and objectives radically.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32759#sthash.FeMBmIng.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian