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Possible U.S.-Turkey Arrangement
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 24 July 2014, 19:30
The Ukrainian developments have introduced corrections in the revision
of goals of interested great powers relating to the Black Sea. First
of all, the point is about problems relating to the U.S.-Turkey
relations. If earlier Turkey objected to intensification of the U.S.
influence and presence in the Black Sea, currently there are signs
that this region has very specific agreements.
Turkey has to assume a much more reserved position and agree to
increased military and logistical presence of the United States
without Turkey's participation, relying on other states: Romania (key
U.S. partner in the region), Bulgaria, Georgia and to some extent
Ukraine. Obviously, this scenario does not match Turkey's interests,
and the proposals that the United States made to Turkey in the sphere
of military-technical and political assistance does not compensate for
its current miserable situation.
Turkey tried to bid for and achieve more active participation in the
U.S. plans on the Black Sea but the Americans have brought some
arguments that did not allow Turks achieve their intentions. The
United States has justified the distance it keeps between Turkey and
its plans on the Black Sea by reluctance to irritate Russia and the
necessity for more active participation of the countries of the Black
Sea region. This does not look like sound but the Americans did not
bother themselves about soundness.
American experts who are not well-aware of the situation in the Black
Sea cannot understand the core issue well enough. In other words, to
what extent the United States and Turkey agreed actions and positions
in the region of the Black Sea. At the same time, according to
experts, distance between Turkey and Russia is growing, and this may
be caused by not only normalization of the U.S.-Turkish relations but
also deterioration of the Turkish-Russian relations.
According to British diplomats, Russia is reluctant to make a
geopolitical compromise in the relations of Turkey, as well as
elaboration of specific pipeline projects. Turkey would not like to
put off resolution of a number of issues in the relations with Russia
for an indefinite period and is set to resolve them now, which Russia
cannot afford.
Experts say Russia was up for partnership with Turkey with prospects
of cooperation for ousting the United States from several regions
which would not be acceptable to Turkey. At the same time, Turkey
tried to strengthen its influence and presence in the region of the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus, as well as intended to boost its
positions in Central Asia.
During Turkish-Russian negotiations Turkey put forth a lot of
objectives on the Black Sea and the South Caucasus, which was
unacceptable for Russia. These experts suggest that the United States
has not made a final decision on the plans on the Black Sea region,
and most probably more limited increase of the American presence is
expected than it had been supposed earlier. Security of the logistical
system rather than advance deployment will be used, which suggests a
more modest format of presence.
It is possible that this circumstance had a significant role in
Turkey's calmer attitude to these plans of the United States which do
not correct the balance of forces in the Black and do not reduce
Turkey's role in the region. No significant changes are taking place
in the region of the Black Sea, and for the time being there is no
reason to claim that Turkey and the United States have achieved any
special agreement on the Black Sea but most probably during different
negotiations the sides were able to reach one arrangement or another
on the region concerned.
Most probably, these arrangements are agreements in character which
are not many among NATO allies. Experts think it looks like Turkey has
accepted some of the U.S. demands to refrain from new political
initiatives on the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. At the same time,
this region is not a priority in the U.S.-Turkey agenda and it should
not be focused on much.
In fact, given the increasingly broader arrangements between the
United States and Turkey on regional politics, the question of the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus may be resolved in a "routine
manner".
Highly estimating the opinion that the problems of the Black Sea and
the South Caucasus in the U.S.-Turkish relations should be viewed in
the framework of wider and more principled agreements, and they cannot
refrain from resolving the problems relating to the interests of NATO
member states. No doubt the United States and Turkey agreed on the
problems of the Black Sea and the South Caucasus more thoroughly.
The experts whose interests are far from the Black Sea and the South
Caucasus suggest that now the relations between the United States and
Turkey regarding the regions are far from full agreement but both
sides have had thorough negotiations on all the other regions, and the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus cannot be an exception.
At the same time, the United States and NATO are currently boosting
their military presence in the Black Sea in regard to the developments
in Ukraine, and in this situation Turkey does not have relevant
arguments for objections to implementation of these plans and tasks.
Turkey has appeared in a miserable situation regarding the occupation
of Crimea by Russia, and the complicated situation requires that
Ankara revise its attitude to the Black Sea.
Crime is not so very important a problem for Turkey to put up with the
presence of the navy of NATO member states in this basis because it
plays down Turkey's role not only in the Black Sea and the coastal
regions but also in more important geopolitical terms. At the same
time, the previous arrangements between Turkey and the United States
and new arguments bind Turkey and do not allow it to complain,
especially that Russia has actually let Turkey down regarding this
regional matter.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32766#sthash.wHSYI3MU.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 24 July 2014, 19:30
The Ukrainian developments have introduced corrections in the revision
of goals of interested great powers relating to the Black Sea. First
of all, the point is about problems relating to the U.S.-Turkey
relations. If earlier Turkey objected to intensification of the U.S.
influence and presence in the Black Sea, currently there are signs
that this region has very specific agreements.
Turkey has to assume a much more reserved position and agree to
increased military and logistical presence of the United States
without Turkey's participation, relying on other states: Romania (key
U.S. partner in the region), Bulgaria, Georgia and to some extent
Ukraine. Obviously, this scenario does not match Turkey's interests,
and the proposals that the United States made to Turkey in the sphere
of military-technical and political assistance does not compensate for
its current miserable situation.
Turkey tried to bid for and achieve more active participation in the
U.S. plans on the Black Sea but the Americans have brought some
arguments that did not allow Turks achieve their intentions. The
United States has justified the distance it keeps between Turkey and
its plans on the Black Sea by reluctance to irritate Russia and the
necessity for more active participation of the countries of the Black
Sea region. This does not look like sound but the Americans did not
bother themselves about soundness.
American experts who are not well-aware of the situation in the Black
Sea cannot understand the core issue well enough. In other words, to
what extent the United States and Turkey agreed actions and positions
in the region of the Black Sea. At the same time, according to
experts, distance between Turkey and Russia is growing, and this may
be caused by not only normalization of the U.S.-Turkish relations but
also deterioration of the Turkish-Russian relations.
According to British diplomats, Russia is reluctant to make a
geopolitical compromise in the relations of Turkey, as well as
elaboration of specific pipeline projects. Turkey would not like to
put off resolution of a number of issues in the relations with Russia
for an indefinite period and is set to resolve them now, which Russia
cannot afford.
Experts say Russia was up for partnership with Turkey with prospects
of cooperation for ousting the United States from several regions
which would not be acceptable to Turkey. At the same time, Turkey
tried to strengthen its influence and presence in the region of the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus, as well as intended to boost its
positions in Central Asia.
During Turkish-Russian negotiations Turkey put forth a lot of
objectives on the Black Sea and the South Caucasus, which was
unacceptable for Russia. These experts suggest that the United States
has not made a final decision on the plans on the Black Sea region,
and most probably more limited increase of the American presence is
expected than it had been supposed earlier. Security of the logistical
system rather than advance deployment will be used, which suggests a
more modest format of presence.
It is possible that this circumstance had a significant role in
Turkey's calmer attitude to these plans of the United States which do
not correct the balance of forces in the Black and do not reduce
Turkey's role in the region. No significant changes are taking place
in the region of the Black Sea, and for the time being there is no
reason to claim that Turkey and the United States have achieved any
special agreement on the Black Sea but most probably during different
negotiations the sides were able to reach one arrangement or another
on the region concerned.
Most probably, these arrangements are agreements in character which
are not many among NATO allies. Experts think it looks like Turkey has
accepted some of the U.S. demands to refrain from new political
initiatives on the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. At the same time,
this region is not a priority in the U.S.-Turkey agenda and it should
not be focused on much.
In fact, given the increasingly broader arrangements between the
United States and Turkey on regional politics, the question of the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus may be resolved in a "routine
manner".
Highly estimating the opinion that the problems of the Black Sea and
the South Caucasus in the U.S.-Turkish relations should be viewed in
the framework of wider and more principled agreements, and they cannot
refrain from resolving the problems relating to the interests of NATO
member states. No doubt the United States and Turkey agreed on the
problems of the Black Sea and the South Caucasus more thoroughly.
The experts whose interests are far from the Black Sea and the South
Caucasus suggest that now the relations between the United States and
Turkey regarding the regions are far from full agreement but both
sides have had thorough negotiations on all the other regions, and the
Black Sea and the South Caucasus cannot be an exception.
At the same time, the United States and NATO are currently boosting
their military presence in the Black Sea in regard to the developments
in Ukraine, and in this situation Turkey does not have relevant
arguments for objections to implementation of these plans and tasks.
Turkey has appeared in a miserable situation regarding the occupation
of Crimea by Russia, and the complicated situation requires that
Ankara revise its attitude to the Black Sea.
Crime is not so very important a problem for Turkey to put up with the
presence of the navy of NATO member states in this basis because it
plays down Turkey's role not only in the Black Sea and the coastal
regions but also in more important geopolitical terms. At the same
time, the previous arrangements between Turkey and the United States
and new arguments bind Turkey and do not allow it to complain,
especially that Russia has actually let Turkey down regarding this
regional matter.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32766#sthash.wHSYI3MU.dpuf