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Azerbaijan will not run the risk of withdrawing from OSCE Minsk Group
- Arman Melikyan
21:30 * 25.07.14
Despite Azerbaijan voicing its discontent with the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process and the Minsk Group (MG) format, ex-FM of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Arman Melikyan told Tert.am that
Azerbaijan will not run the risk of leaving the MG format.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are calling for an Armenian-Azerbaijani
presidential meeting. Is Azerbaijan able to have the Minsk Group
dissolved, and will the co-chairing countries allow it to?
"Azerbaijan could pull out of the negotiations within the Minsk Group.
But it could only happen if Azerbaijan finally decides in favor of one
of the camps, which are in a state of political confrontation now. It
has to choose between Russia and the West, and any such decision in
the present situation could prove fateful for Azerbaijan's President
Ilham Aliyev and his inner circles. I think he will prefer not running
the risk."
US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick restated the need
for such a meeting. But Azerbaijan states that resuming hostilities is
the only alternative. Official Yerevan is silent. Are there any
reasons for the sides' avoiding a meeting?
"Armenia does not refuse a meeting because expecting it to produce any
real results would be naïve. The sides' positions are radically
different and there are no real grounds for bringing them closer to
each other now. The issue is actually settled for the Armenian side,
and it is Azerbaijan that is dissatisfied with the current situation
and is trying to change it by exerting pressures on the two Armenian
sides and on the co-chairs. It is Azerbaijan that could decide to
resume hostilities. But Azerbaijan's leadership will not make such a
decision without most serious external guarantees."
The French and US co-chairs' efforts are obvious to persuade the sides
into starting talks, whereas Russia does not seem to be interested.
What could this suggest?
"Each side is playing its own game. In this context, we can recall
that, during Dmitri Medvedev's presidency, it was Russia that, as the
Minsk Group co-chairing country, was the initiator of regular
Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings."
Some say that Azerbaijan could resume hostilities with Russia's
support as, by fanning war in the region it could block the West's way
to alternative oil resources. Is such a scenario possible and will
Armenia's military partner, Russia, support Armenia?
"Oil-related issues are normally made use of for concealing
superpowers' actually objectives and programs. There is no global oil
deficit now. As to the confidence in Russia's support to Armenia in
case of war with Azerbaijan, if Azerbaijan decides in favor of Russia,
it could refuse to honor its commitments as Armenia's ally. I do not
consider such a scenario highly probable. All possible scenarios
should just be considered."
Armenian News - Tert.am
- Arman Melikyan
21:30 * 25.07.14
Despite Azerbaijan voicing its discontent with the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process and the Minsk Group (MG) format, ex-FM of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Arman Melikyan told Tert.am that
Azerbaijan will not run the risk of leaving the MG format.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are calling for an Armenian-Azerbaijani
presidential meeting. Is Azerbaijan able to have the Minsk Group
dissolved, and will the co-chairing countries allow it to?
"Azerbaijan could pull out of the negotiations within the Minsk Group.
But it could only happen if Azerbaijan finally decides in favor of one
of the camps, which are in a state of political confrontation now. It
has to choose between Russia and the West, and any such decision in
the present situation could prove fateful for Azerbaijan's President
Ilham Aliyev and his inner circles. I think he will prefer not running
the risk."
US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick restated the need
for such a meeting. But Azerbaijan states that resuming hostilities is
the only alternative. Official Yerevan is silent. Are there any
reasons for the sides' avoiding a meeting?
"Armenia does not refuse a meeting because expecting it to produce any
real results would be naïve. The sides' positions are radically
different and there are no real grounds for bringing them closer to
each other now. The issue is actually settled for the Armenian side,
and it is Azerbaijan that is dissatisfied with the current situation
and is trying to change it by exerting pressures on the two Armenian
sides and on the co-chairs. It is Azerbaijan that could decide to
resume hostilities. But Azerbaijan's leadership will not make such a
decision without most serious external guarantees."
The French and US co-chairs' efforts are obvious to persuade the sides
into starting talks, whereas Russia does not seem to be interested.
What could this suggest?
"Each side is playing its own game. In this context, we can recall
that, during Dmitri Medvedev's presidency, it was Russia that, as the
Minsk Group co-chairing country, was the initiator of regular
Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings."
Some say that Azerbaijan could resume hostilities with Russia's
support as, by fanning war in the region it could block the West's way
to alternative oil resources. Is such a scenario possible and will
Armenia's military partner, Russia, support Armenia?
"Oil-related issues are normally made use of for concealing
superpowers' actually objectives and programs. There is no global oil
deficit now. As to the confidence in Russia's support to Armenia in
case of war with Azerbaijan, if Azerbaijan decides in favor of Russia,
it could refuse to honor its commitments as Armenia's ally. I do not
consider such a scenario highly probable. All possible scenarios
should just be considered."
Armenian News - Tert.am