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ARMENIA'S PROPOSAL TO 3 EURASIAN STATES INSTEAD OF ARTSAKH
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 05 June 2014, 11:32
The Armenian government is planning to set up a free economic
zone at the Armenian-Iranian border, the minister of economy Karen
Chshmarityan told reporters on June 4. If he is telling the truth and
is not bluffing, like in many initiatives of the Armenian government,
the establishment of a free economic zone on the border with Iran may
mean that Armenia gives up on the Eurasian Union or has lost hope to
become its member.
The point is that in case Armenia becomes a member of the Eurasian
Union, the border with Iran will be the border of this Union.
Therefore, establishment of a FEZ on that border is a matter at the
level of the Eurasian Union, and Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will
not allow Armenia to make a singlehanded decision.
Two options are left: either they refuse Armenia and bar the FEZ on the
Eurasian-Iranian border or the FEZ is tailored to their requirements,
actually sharing the pie that could be made in that FEZ.
Crumbs will be left to Armenia, whereas Armenia could have set up
the zone without the Eurasian Union and eat the whole pie or choose
who to share it with.
Hence, either the three founding members of the Eurasian Union, not
Armenia, will set up the FEZ and enjoy its fruits or the Armenian
government has no hope to join the Eurasian Union, which enables it
considering a FEZ on the border with Iran.
Although, there is a serious matter here, the powerful Russian
counteraction which does not depend on Armenia's membership to the
Customs Union. So far Russia has suspended all the Armenian-Russian
strategic projects, transforming them to a bilateral business plan,
like the gas pipeline. Therefore, there are doubts that Russia will
allow Armenia to set up a FEZ on the border with Iran unless the FEZ
is fully controlled by Russia.
It is difficult to imagine that the Armenian government will be able
to oppose Russia.
This might be the reason why Chshmarityan did not mention a time or
other detail. The Armenian government has an intention but does not
have an authorization and does not know how to fulfill it.
For its part, the West would approve Armenian-Iranian projects if
Armenia is sovereign, not Russia controls the projects through
Armenia. The problem is that Armenia is not able to enter into
dangerous processes on its own. The scope of this cooperation cannot be
such as to cause an essential change in the balance of forces of Iran.
Moreover, these projects will enable Armenia to diversify its economy
and energy sector, as well as rid of Russian dominance. In this
respect, the Armenian-Iranian projects are a geopolitical opportunity
for the West. However, the most important condition must be observed.
These projects are implemented by sovereign decisions by Armenia, not
under Russian patronage. In other words, if those are Armenian-Iranian
relations, not a type of Russian-Iranian relations.
In addition, the sovereign relationship with Iran is a prospect for
raising the status of regional player that decreases significantly
if it cooperates with Iran under Russian dominance.
It is obvious that Hovik Abrahamyan's government has no will and
courage to set up sovereign relations with Iran, let alone the
understanding of their geopolitical prospects. The FEZ is just another
business project under Russian patronage, such as the gas pipeline,
which promotes business but crashes strategy.
It is not ruled out that the idea of the FEZ will be evidence to the
opposite, and Armenia still has hopes. It may have been intended for
winning over the three Eurasian states and invite them to direct the
Armenian-Iranian border to let the border with Artsakh alone.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32542#sthash.bNPHWqC0.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 05 June 2014, 11:32
The Armenian government is planning to set up a free economic
zone at the Armenian-Iranian border, the minister of economy Karen
Chshmarityan told reporters on June 4. If he is telling the truth and
is not bluffing, like in many initiatives of the Armenian government,
the establishment of a free economic zone on the border with Iran may
mean that Armenia gives up on the Eurasian Union or has lost hope to
become its member.
The point is that in case Armenia becomes a member of the Eurasian
Union, the border with Iran will be the border of this Union.
Therefore, establishment of a FEZ on that border is a matter at the
level of the Eurasian Union, and Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will
not allow Armenia to make a singlehanded decision.
Two options are left: either they refuse Armenia and bar the FEZ on the
Eurasian-Iranian border or the FEZ is tailored to their requirements,
actually sharing the pie that could be made in that FEZ.
Crumbs will be left to Armenia, whereas Armenia could have set up
the zone without the Eurasian Union and eat the whole pie or choose
who to share it with.
Hence, either the three founding members of the Eurasian Union, not
Armenia, will set up the FEZ and enjoy its fruits or the Armenian
government has no hope to join the Eurasian Union, which enables it
considering a FEZ on the border with Iran.
Although, there is a serious matter here, the powerful Russian
counteraction which does not depend on Armenia's membership to the
Customs Union. So far Russia has suspended all the Armenian-Russian
strategic projects, transforming them to a bilateral business plan,
like the gas pipeline. Therefore, there are doubts that Russia will
allow Armenia to set up a FEZ on the border with Iran unless the FEZ
is fully controlled by Russia.
It is difficult to imagine that the Armenian government will be able
to oppose Russia.
This might be the reason why Chshmarityan did not mention a time or
other detail. The Armenian government has an intention but does not
have an authorization and does not know how to fulfill it.
For its part, the West would approve Armenian-Iranian projects if
Armenia is sovereign, not Russia controls the projects through
Armenia. The problem is that Armenia is not able to enter into
dangerous processes on its own. The scope of this cooperation cannot be
such as to cause an essential change in the balance of forces of Iran.
Moreover, these projects will enable Armenia to diversify its economy
and energy sector, as well as rid of Russian dominance. In this
respect, the Armenian-Iranian projects are a geopolitical opportunity
for the West. However, the most important condition must be observed.
These projects are implemented by sovereign decisions by Armenia, not
under Russian patronage. In other words, if those are Armenian-Iranian
relations, not a type of Russian-Iranian relations.
In addition, the sovereign relationship with Iran is a prospect for
raising the status of regional player that decreases significantly
if it cooperates with Iran under Russian dominance.
It is obvious that Hovik Abrahamyan's government has no will and
courage to set up sovereign relations with Iran, let alone the
understanding of their geopolitical prospects. The FEZ is just another
business project under Russian patronage, such as the gas pipeline,
which promotes business but crashes strategy.
It is not ruled out that the idea of the FEZ will be evidence to the
opposite, and Armenia still has hopes. It may have been intended for
winning over the three Eurasian states and invite them to direct the
Armenian-Iranian border to let the border with Artsakh alone.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32542#sthash.bNPHWqC0.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian