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ERDOGAN TO ISRAEL, FOR THE WIN!
War on the Rocks
June 5 2014
Joshua Walker
June 5, 2014 ยท in Commentary
>From an ugly brawl between the Islamic scholar Fetullah Gulen's
movement and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Soma mining
disaster, 2014 has not been Turkey's year. Last weekend marked the
dual anniversaries of the Gezi Park protests that took place last year
and the Mavi Marmara flotilla raid four years ago; both are powerful
reminders of the continuing challenges and extreme polarization in
Turkey today. Yet amidst Turkey's most consequential elections in
decades, the longer marathon of Turkish politics is just getting
started. Unfortunately, like many other democracies, elections seem
to bring out the worst in Turkey.
With recent elections providing a strong domestic mandate for
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, any damage done to Turkey's
international reputation may receive little attention from Erdogan
in the short run. However, he should start paying attention. With
an economy and foreign policy that relies on critical alliances,
Turkey's future will be written over the course of the next year and
the United States should be a friendly co-author.
American foreign policy towards Turkey has become stale and does not
reflect the tectonic shifts of the last four years in Turkey and the
broader region. If the United States re-engages with Erdogan and the
larger Turkish polity the right way, Erdogan would have the necessary
incentives to take a few steps back from the anti-Western rhetoric
he has been leaning on with greater regularity.
Interestingly, as Turkey looks forward to leading the G-20 summit next
year and its centennial - now only eight years away - previously taboo
areas offer the greatest hope for successful breakthroughs. These
include Armenia, Cyprus, the "Eastern" question (read: Kurdish),
and - as I wrote prior to the elections - Israel.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/06/erdogan-to-israel-for-the-win/
It may seem counterintuitive given the ongoing tenor of Turkish
politics, which has seen anti-Semitism on full display from discussions
about the Soma mine owner's Jewish son-in-law to unfortunate new
insults (that shall not be repeated on WOTR, which is a family
site). Through it all, however, Turkey and Israel have maintained
important economic and military ties. Government officials point to
the 520 years of shared Jewish-Turkish history and the quadrupling of
trade, despite the Mavi Marmaraincidents and insults from both sides.
Despite the headlines over the recent Mavi Marmara protests and
Turkish court's arrest orders for the Israeli commanders "responsible"
for the incident, Ankara and Jerusalem are tantalizingly close
to a comprehensive settlement that would open the door to greater
strategic cooperation. Despite internal push back, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has satisfied almost all of Erdogan's demands,
having already apologized to Erdogan on Obama's phone, agreed on
compensation for the Mavi Marmara victims' families, and even offered
supplies to Gaza to build a Turkish hospital. This should be welcomed
news to both sides, which are facing new regional realities, making
cooperation timelier than ever before.
Today, Israel and Turkey are strategically aligned in ways that
few would have predicted at the beginning of the Arab Spring. Both
states have problems the other side could help with. For instance,
as the Syrian civil war drags on and Assad regains the momentum,
both Jerusalem and Ankara have a shared interest in a weaker Assad.
Additionally, each state could support each other in their shared
regional rivalries with Iran and Saudi Arabia, not to mention through
greater attention from Washington when they work together regionally.
The rise of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's military and collapse
of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has also left Turkey further
isolated in the Middle East. Therefore, Israel may hold the key to
Turkey's energy future in the Eastern Mediterranean if it remains less
interested in domestic Turkish politics than pragmatic areas of mutual
cooperation. Further, with the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian
peace talks and the recent deal that has reunited Hamas and Fatah,
the two main Palestinian factions, the possibility of a third intifada
is in no one's long-term interest. Ankara still may be one of the
few capitals that can credibly negotiate with a Hamas-incorporated
Palestinian unity government.
With the new momentum created by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's
visit to Cyprus and Secretary of State John Kerry's continuing
focus on the region, Ankara has the chance, albeit limited, to lead
constructively in the region if it can work with its most valuable
partner. Today that should be Israel, which has a stable government
and popular leader. Clearly, this has to be delicately balanced given
the conspiratorial nature of Turkish politics and the level to which
the AKP and Erdogan have been vilified in Israel, but the conditions
and incentives are there.
Turkey's first direct presidential election set for the summer, and
national parliamentary elections scheduled soon after, cast a long
shadow over any potential foreign policy prerogatives. Therefore,
depending on who and how the opposition challenges Erdogan in both of
these elections, the fate of any international breakthrough remains
on the back burner. However, given that the government is insisting on
"business as usual" despite the domestic tension, foreign relations may
be the most pragmatic area for quick victories, starting in Jerusalem.
Dr. Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall
Fund of the United States and a Fellow at the Truman National Security
Project, and previously served as a Senior Advisor to the U.S.
Department of State. He is a contributor to War on the Rocks and the
views expressed are his own.
War on the Rocks
June 5 2014
Joshua Walker
June 5, 2014 ยท in Commentary
>From an ugly brawl between the Islamic scholar Fetullah Gulen's
movement and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Soma mining
disaster, 2014 has not been Turkey's year. Last weekend marked the
dual anniversaries of the Gezi Park protests that took place last year
and the Mavi Marmara flotilla raid four years ago; both are powerful
reminders of the continuing challenges and extreme polarization in
Turkey today. Yet amidst Turkey's most consequential elections in
decades, the longer marathon of Turkish politics is just getting
started. Unfortunately, like many other democracies, elections seem
to bring out the worst in Turkey.
With recent elections providing a strong domestic mandate for
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, any damage done to Turkey's
international reputation may receive little attention from Erdogan
in the short run. However, he should start paying attention. With
an economy and foreign policy that relies on critical alliances,
Turkey's future will be written over the course of the next year and
the United States should be a friendly co-author.
American foreign policy towards Turkey has become stale and does not
reflect the tectonic shifts of the last four years in Turkey and the
broader region. If the United States re-engages with Erdogan and the
larger Turkish polity the right way, Erdogan would have the necessary
incentives to take a few steps back from the anti-Western rhetoric
he has been leaning on with greater regularity.
Interestingly, as Turkey looks forward to leading the G-20 summit next
year and its centennial - now only eight years away - previously taboo
areas offer the greatest hope for successful breakthroughs. These
include Armenia, Cyprus, the "Eastern" question (read: Kurdish),
and - as I wrote prior to the elections - Israel.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/06/erdogan-to-israel-for-the-win/
It may seem counterintuitive given the ongoing tenor of Turkish
politics, which has seen anti-Semitism on full display from discussions
about the Soma mine owner's Jewish son-in-law to unfortunate new
insults (that shall not be repeated on WOTR, which is a family
site). Through it all, however, Turkey and Israel have maintained
important economic and military ties. Government officials point to
the 520 years of shared Jewish-Turkish history and the quadrupling of
trade, despite the Mavi Marmaraincidents and insults from both sides.
Despite the headlines over the recent Mavi Marmara protests and
Turkish court's arrest orders for the Israeli commanders "responsible"
for the incident, Ankara and Jerusalem are tantalizingly close
to a comprehensive settlement that would open the door to greater
strategic cooperation. Despite internal push back, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has satisfied almost all of Erdogan's demands,
having already apologized to Erdogan on Obama's phone, agreed on
compensation for the Mavi Marmara victims' families, and even offered
supplies to Gaza to build a Turkish hospital. This should be welcomed
news to both sides, which are facing new regional realities, making
cooperation timelier than ever before.
Today, Israel and Turkey are strategically aligned in ways that
few would have predicted at the beginning of the Arab Spring. Both
states have problems the other side could help with. For instance,
as the Syrian civil war drags on and Assad regains the momentum,
both Jerusalem and Ankara have a shared interest in a weaker Assad.
Additionally, each state could support each other in their shared
regional rivalries with Iran and Saudi Arabia, not to mention through
greater attention from Washington when they work together regionally.
The rise of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's military and collapse
of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has also left Turkey further
isolated in the Middle East. Therefore, Israel may hold the key to
Turkey's energy future in the Eastern Mediterranean if it remains less
interested in domestic Turkish politics than pragmatic areas of mutual
cooperation. Further, with the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian
peace talks and the recent deal that has reunited Hamas and Fatah,
the two main Palestinian factions, the possibility of a third intifada
is in no one's long-term interest. Ankara still may be one of the
few capitals that can credibly negotiate with a Hamas-incorporated
Palestinian unity government.
With the new momentum created by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's
visit to Cyprus and Secretary of State John Kerry's continuing
focus on the region, Ankara has the chance, albeit limited, to lead
constructively in the region if it can work with its most valuable
partner. Today that should be Israel, which has a stable government
and popular leader. Clearly, this has to be delicately balanced given
the conspiratorial nature of Turkish politics and the level to which
the AKP and Erdogan have been vilified in Israel, but the conditions
and incentives are there.
Turkey's first direct presidential election set for the summer, and
national parliamentary elections scheduled soon after, cast a long
shadow over any potential foreign policy prerogatives. Therefore,
depending on who and how the opposition challenges Erdogan in both of
these elections, the fate of any international breakthrough remains
on the back burner. However, given that the government is insisting on
"business as usual" despite the domestic tension, foreign relations may
be the most pragmatic area for quick victories, starting in Jerusalem.
Dr. Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall
Fund of the United States and a Fellow at the Truman National Security
Project, and previously served as a Senior Advisor to the U.S.
Department of State. He is a contributor to War on the Rocks and the
views expressed are his own.