Tweet
EURASIAN UNION STARTS OFF ON THE WRONG FOOT
EDITORIAL | JUNE 5, 2014 2:36 PM
By Edmond Y. Azadian
Once again, Armenia is trapped in the web of world political intrigues,
primarily as a result of its isolation and dangerous depopulation. This
trend does not augur well for the country.
After years of negotiations with the European Union, last September
Yerevan made a U-turn, to join the Russian-led Customs Union, which
today has grown to become the Eurasian Union.
Time and again, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that
his intention is to recreate the former Soviet Union, but all the
developments indicate otherwise.
In the face of an intensifying new cold war, major powers are
repositioning themselves in the so-called new world order. The west
always denies that NATO is a threat to Russia, all the while encircling
Russia to contain its growing power.
Moscow is trying to break the stranglehold in its own way. Ukraine
was the last link in that encirclement process, which Russia lost
but not without drawing blood, thus not enabling the west to claim
victory in that tug-of-war, yet.
The annexation of Crimea by Moscow and its "misbehavior" in Eastern
Ukraine has in turn created excuses for the west to strike Russia
with economic sanctions.
As a reaction to those threats, Russia was able to achieve two major
projects of global significance. One was the $400-billion energy deal
with China and the other was the creation of the Eurasian Union,
which, according to President Putin, is "a treaty of epoch-making
historic importance."
Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev similarly crowed, "A new
geopolitical reality of the 21st century is born."
The west certainly does not perceive these developments in that
perspective, in view of the member states' divergent interests. For
example, in 1995, 47 percent of Kazakhstan's trade activity was with
Russia, but by 2011, 40 percent of its exports went to Europe and
only 9 percent to Russia.
An article in the New York Times on May 30 presents all these
activities in their political context: "Like the huge gas agreement
Russia signed with China this month, the Eurasian Economic Union is
a way for Moscow to show that it is pivoting to Asia and that it can
withstand western sanctions and other pressures as it pursues its
national interests, as in its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine."
While Russia is well within its rights to pursue its national
interests, Armenia has to struggle for its survival. And it seems
that Armenia's plight is one of the lower prerogatives of the Russian
regional politics.
While Moscow continually arms Azerbaijan, its claims that it intends
to solve the Karabagh impasse peacefully sounds very disingenuous. The
action makes clear that it is not in Moscow's interest to resolve
the issue in order to be able to keep both Baku and Yerevan on a
short leash.
To undermine those Russian intentions, the US made an extraordinary
proposal about Karabagh through its ambassador to the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe Minsk Group, James Warlick. The
ambassador ordinarily would act in unison with the other co-chairs
of the Minsk Group, but at a speech at the Carnegie Foundation, he
took the extraordinary step of enunciating the US position on the
Karabagh problem.
All the above developments constitute the background of what happened
in Astana as the leaders of the Eurasian Union gathered to sign the
charter of that organization.
While President George Bush was putting together "A coalition of
the willing" during the first Gulf War, the Eurasian Union seems to
present a coalition of the unwilling. In fact, Russia had to bribe
Belarus with a $2-billion loan to bring it to submission. Armenia's
share was $300 million to repair the Metsamor nuclear power plant.
Incidentally, after the initial fanfare to build a new nuclear power
plant in Armenia, Russia has opted for the same to be built in Turkey.
Another aspect of the Eurasian Union is political discord among its
participants. While Belarusian President Lukashenko was predicting that
the union would eventually lead to a political union, Kazakhstan's
government begged to differ, limiting the agreement only to economic
activities among the partners. If the Eurasian Union is to imitate
the European Union, its political dimension will be missing, since
all the new members of the EU are gradually being integrated within
the NATO structure.
It looks like Nazarbayev calls the shots in this new union, under
President Putin's tolerant gaze. Indeed, as he hosted the summit
in Astana last week, Nazarbayev threw a bombshell while Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan were waiting at the door for the founding members of the
union, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, to sign the charter of the
union. That bombshell was a letter by Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev, who demanded that Armenia be admitted to the Eurasian Union
only within its borders recognized by the United Nations, meaning
without Nagorno Karabagh.
That was a clear message to Yerevan that no open border is possible
between Armenia and Karabagh after Armenia joins the Eurasian Union.
Armenia's reaction was confused and confusing; before the agreement
was signed, Armenian Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan had stated that
Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh Republic are a single economic zone and
that there can be no customs or other borders between them.
After Nazarbayev's unpleasant letter, President Serge Sargisian of
Armenia contradicted his prime minister's earlier statement: "As for
what was voiced by Nazarbayev, first, from the outset, it is wrong
to talk about borders. What borders are we talking about? Karabagh
problem is not being solved in the Customs Union." He added, "And
who said that we are joinging the Customs Union together with Nagorno
Karabagh? There has been no such thing and could not be, because at
least, under our laws, and in accordance with our ideas, Karabagh
today is not part of Armenia. And the fact that the membership in the
Customs Union will contribute to the solution of the Nagorno Karabagh
problem is unequivocal. Of course, what Nazarbayev said was unpleasant,
but it cannot harm us."
Nazarbayev's intervention was not only "unpleasant," but it was even
disgusting as he also commented that "we should not hurt the feelings
of our friend, Aliyev."
In addition to doing a favor for his friend, Mr. Nazarbayev entertains
the idea of inviting Turkey to join the Eurasian Union, down the road,
in total disregard of the thorny issues still extent between Armenia
and Turkey.
Russia has remained silent on the incident. Mr. Putin's silence seems
ominous. Adding insult to injury, one of the Russian commentators
blamed Armenia for that "unpleasant" letter. Indeed, a senior advisor
to the Russian Federation and the editor of the news agency, Rex,
Modest Kolerov, commented that Aliyev's letter was a response to the
comments made by the Armenian prime minister.
Azerbaijan is not even a member of the Eurasian Union, nor does it
intend to join that entity, but it is still blackmailing Armenia by
flexing its petro muscles.
Nazarbayev, through his insensitivity toward one of the members of the
union, on behalf of an outsider, demonstrates that he is fulfilling
the wishes of his pan-Turanist friends. Many in Armenia blame him
to be the pillar of Pan-Turanist dreams of Azerbaijan and Turkey in
Central Asia. Although pan-Turanism and Ottomanism have been Russia's
perennial enemies, at this time, Mr. Putin does not consider them as
posing existential threats to Russia, as he has other fish to fry,
potentially threatening to singe Armenia.
With all the grandiose rhetoric, the Eurasian Union seems to have
started off on the wrong foot, at least, from Armenia's perspective.
- See more at:
http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2014/06/05/eurasian-union-starts-off-on-the-wrong-foot/#sthash.D5sfYx5m.dpuf
EDITORIAL | JUNE 5, 2014 2:36 PM
By Edmond Y. Azadian
Once again, Armenia is trapped in the web of world political intrigues,
primarily as a result of its isolation and dangerous depopulation. This
trend does not augur well for the country.
After years of negotiations with the European Union, last September
Yerevan made a U-turn, to join the Russian-led Customs Union, which
today has grown to become the Eurasian Union.
Time and again, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that
his intention is to recreate the former Soviet Union, but all the
developments indicate otherwise.
In the face of an intensifying new cold war, major powers are
repositioning themselves in the so-called new world order. The west
always denies that NATO is a threat to Russia, all the while encircling
Russia to contain its growing power.
Moscow is trying to break the stranglehold in its own way. Ukraine
was the last link in that encirclement process, which Russia lost
but not without drawing blood, thus not enabling the west to claim
victory in that tug-of-war, yet.
The annexation of Crimea by Moscow and its "misbehavior" in Eastern
Ukraine has in turn created excuses for the west to strike Russia
with economic sanctions.
As a reaction to those threats, Russia was able to achieve two major
projects of global significance. One was the $400-billion energy deal
with China and the other was the creation of the Eurasian Union,
which, according to President Putin, is "a treaty of epoch-making
historic importance."
Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev similarly crowed, "A new
geopolitical reality of the 21st century is born."
The west certainly does not perceive these developments in that
perspective, in view of the member states' divergent interests. For
example, in 1995, 47 percent of Kazakhstan's trade activity was with
Russia, but by 2011, 40 percent of its exports went to Europe and
only 9 percent to Russia.
An article in the New York Times on May 30 presents all these
activities in their political context: "Like the huge gas agreement
Russia signed with China this month, the Eurasian Economic Union is
a way for Moscow to show that it is pivoting to Asia and that it can
withstand western sanctions and other pressures as it pursues its
national interests, as in its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine."
While Russia is well within its rights to pursue its national
interests, Armenia has to struggle for its survival. And it seems
that Armenia's plight is one of the lower prerogatives of the Russian
regional politics.
While Moscow continually arms Azerbaijan, its claims that it intends
to solve the Karabagh impasse peacefully sounds very disingenuous. The
action makes clear that it is not in Moscow's interest to resolve
the issue in order to be able to keep both Baku and Yerevan on a
short leash.
To undermine those Russian intentions, the US made an extraordinary
proposal about Karabagh through its ambassador to the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe Minsk Group, James Warlick. The
ambassador ordinarily would act in unison with the other co-chairs
of the Minsk Group, but at a speech at the Carnegie Foundation, he
took the extraordinary step of enunciating the US position on the
Karabagh problem.
All the above developments constitute the background of what happened
in Astana as the leaders of the Eurasian Union gathered to sign the
charter of that organization.
While President George Bush was putting together "A coalition of
the willing" during the first Gulf War, the Eurasian Union seems to
present a coalition of the unwilling. In fact, Russia had to bribe
Belarus with a $2-billion loan to bring it to submission. Armenia's
share was $300 million to repair the Metsamor nuclear power plant.
Incidentally, after the initial fanfare to build a new nuclear power
plant in Armenia, Russia has opted for the same to be built in Turkey.
Another aspect of the Eurasian Union is political discord among its
participants. While Belarusian President Lukashenko was predicting that
the union would eventually lead to a political union, Kazakhstan's
government begged to differ, limiting the agreement only to economic
activities among the partners. If the Eurasian Union is to imitate
the European Union, its political dimension will be missing, since
all the new members of the EU are gradually being integrated within
the NATO structure.
It looks like Nazarbayev calls the shots in this new union, under
President Putin's tolerant gaze. Indeed, as he hosted the summit
in Astana last week, Nazarbayev threw a bombshell while Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan were waiting at the door for the founding members of the
union, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, to sign the charter of the
union. That bombshell was a letter by Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev, who demanded that Armenia be admitted to the Eurasian Union
only within its borders recognized by the United Nations, meaning
without Nagorno Karabagh.
That was a clear message to Yerevan that no open border is possible
between Armenia and Karabagh after Armenia joins the Eurasian Union.
Armenia's reaction was confused and confusing; before the agreement
was signed, Armenian Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan had stated that
Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh Republic are a single economic zone and
that there can be no customs or other borders between them.
After Nazarbayev's unpleasant letter, President Serge Sargisian of
Armenia contradicted his prime minister's earlier statement: "As for
what was voiced by Nazarbayev, first, from the outset, it is wrong
to talk about borders. What borders are we talking about? Karabagh
problem is not being solved in the Customs Union." He added, "And
who said that we are joinging the Customs Union together with Nagorno
Karabagh? There has been no such thing and could not be, because at
least, under our laws, and in accordance with our ideas, Karabagh
today is not part of Armenia. And the fact that the membership in the
Customs Union will contribute to the solution of the Nagorno Karabagh
problem is unequivocal. Of course, what Nazarbayev said was unpleasant,
but it cannot harm us."
Nazarbayev's intervention was not only "unpleasant," but it was even
disgusting as he also commented that "we should not hurt the feelings
of our friend, Aliyev."
In addition to doing a favor for his friend, Mr. Nazarbayev entertains
the idea of inviting Turkey to join the Eurasian Union, down the road,
in total disregard of the thorny issues still extent between Armenia
and Turkey.
Russia has remained silent on the incident. Mr. Putin's silence seems
ominous. Adding insult to injury, one of the Russian commentators
blamed Armenia for that "unpleasant" letter. Indeed, a senior advisor
to the Russian Federation and the editor of the news agency, Rex,
Modest Kolerov, commented that Aliyev's letter was a response to the
comments made by the Armenian prime minister.
Azerbaijan is not even a member of the Eurasian Union, nor does it
intend to join that entity, but it is still blackmailing Armenia by
flexing its petro muscles.
Nazarbayev, through his insensitivity toward one of the members of the
union, on behalf of an outsider, demonstrates that he is fulfilling
the wishes of his pan-Turanist friends. Many in Armenia blame him
to be the pillar of Pan-Turanist dreams of Azerbaijan and Turkey in
Central Asia. Although pan-Turanism and Ottomanism have been Russia's
perennial enemies, at this time, Mr. Putin does not consider them as
posing existential threats to Russia, as he has other fish to fry,
potentially threatening to singe Armenia.
With all the grandiose rhetoric, the Eurasian Union seems to have
started off on the wrong foot, at least, from Armenia's perspective.
- See more at:
http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2014/06/05/eurasian-union-starts-off-on-the-wrong-foot/#sthash.D5sfYx5m.dpuf