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  • Armenia As A Sovereign Partner State Does Not Exist In The Mind Of R

    ARMENIA AS A SOVEREIGN PARTNER STATE DOES NOT EXIST IN THE MIND OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION AUTHORITIES

    June 5 2014

    According to the expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security
    and Development, Marta Ayvazyan, Russia will use Armenia at any time
    as a coin in its political games. - The RA authorities were assuring
    that no checkpoint can be installed between the Nagorno-Karabakh and
    Armenia, but last week it became known that Armenia would be signing
    the treaty to join the Eurasian Union by July 1, should Armenia agree
    with the condition put forward by a founding member of the Union,
    President of Kazakhstan. Armenia should join the Eurasian Union
    with the UN-recognized borders, without Nagorno-Karabakh. How do
    you explain the fact that the interests of Azerbaijan, which are not
    associated with the Eurasian Union, are more consistently protected by
    this union? - The matter that by joining the CU, Armenia, permanently
    deprived of the opportunity to conduct an independent foreign policy,
    will at least lose its economic ties with NK with installation of the
    checkpoint or otherwise, was clear from the outset. Recall Russian
    officials' voiced opinions and positions to this respect, and I am
    confident that the RA authorities were well aware of it. Maybe it was
    a surprise for them of how this requirement was put forward, but not
    its essence. The matter that the relations with Azerbaijan were much
    more important for Russia, and that Armenia is a reliable partner for
    Russia and at all times Russia is only pursuing its national interests,
    is also not new, and Russia keeps approving this fact.

    Suffice it to recall the continuous transactions on the same of
    attacking weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as the form and content of
    the visit by the President of Russia to Azerbaijan, also numerous
    statements made by various representatives of the Russian Federation,
    which evidently prove that Armenia as an independent and sovereign
    partner state with its own state interest does not exist in the minds
    of RF authorities, and at any time Russia will use Armenia as a coin
    in its political games, regardless of the possible consequences
    for Armenia. On the other hand, Armenia's accession is not also
    desirable for Kazakhstan and Belarus, whose relationships with Russia
    within the CU are quite complex, because Armenia, being Russia's
    puppet state, can be used against other CU member states during the
    decision-making process. In my opinion, this is due to the form of
    introducing the requirement and publicity of the content of Aliyev's
    letter by Nazarbayev. At the same time, under created conditions, an
    unexpected opportunity is granted to Armenia if not totally refuse
    the CU membership, then at least to postpone it indefinitely, but
    whether our authorities would be able to seize this opportunity. This
    whole situation also leads to another painful conclusion; today,
    the relations with Armenia are absolutely not important for virtually
    any state, including the founder state of the European Union. - RF had
    completed its supply of 100 T-90C tanks batch to Azerbaijan, supply of
    the second batch with the same number of tanks to Baku is possible. On
    May 26, it became also known that Russia is planning to supply another
    batch of TOS-1A reactive flame-throwers to Azerbaijan. Russia side is
    introducing the Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation with several
    billion dollars as a "commercial transaction." How should Armenia, as
    Russia's strategic partner, display itself under these conditions? -
    In case of willingness and ability, possible displays are vary and are
    on different dimensions, bilateral and multilateral, from reviewing the
    terms for deployment of the Russian military base up to enhancement of
    relations with NATO and signing of similar "commercial transactions"
    with the member states. Given that this "commercial transactions" under
    the conditions of unresolved conflict create tension and hinder the
    peace settlement process that is underway for more than two decades,
    violates a number of international norms and agreements in principle
    reached within conflict settlement negotiations, including the UN
    Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia
    may also, if not, should, send respective notes of protest to Russian
    authorities, raise this issue within the UN and the OSCE, demanding
    that Russia fulfill its international commitments and refrain from
    supplying weapons to one of the sides in conflict and so on. -
    Recently, there are many views voiced that new possibilities for
    signing the EU Association for are opened up. The French President
    Hollande, in the framework of his visit to Armenia said that a new
    version of Association Agreement should be thought for Armenia, which
    would not prevent the decision to join the Customs Union. Do you see
    such possibilities? - Association Agreement with a new version that
    will contain a component of economic cooperation with necessary scope
    and substantive content, would have practical rather than merely a
    political significance, and will not obstruct the decision to join the
    CU, to be more precise, it would be acceptable for the CU, I cannot
    imagine. Generally, the future development between Armenia and EU
    is incompatible with the CU membership with desired and practically
    profitable direction for us, and it will be possible only if Armenia
    would be able to avoid this structure. As I already mentioned, to
    avoid the CU, a certain possibility was opened up after the events
    in Astana. As to the French President's words, I would assess them
    more like a political statement, which once again confirms the EU's
    desire and willingness to continue the development of cooperation with
    Armenia in the presence of respective political decision by Armenia
    and provision of required conditions. - On June 27, signing of the EU
    Association Agreement with Georgia is scheduled. Can a dividing line
    emerge between Armenia and Georgia, given the fact that Russia has
    increased its military presence in Armenia, and there is a danger for
    the Russian military base to operate as an obstacle Georgia's way to
    the European and Euro-Atlantic integration? - The dividing line between
    Georgia and Armenia has emerged a long time ago and is strengthened
    in concomitant with enhancement of Russia's dominant role in Armenia
    and loss of our sovereignty. Today, Armenia, being under the absolute
    dependence on Russia, serving to Russia's regional and geopolitical
    interests, operating in line with them on various international
    platforms, has turned into a source of instability and possibly a
    military threat for the states in the region, particularly Georgia. On
    June 27, the scheduled signing of the EU Association Agreement with
    Georgia would not the cause of the dividing line, but will give a new
    institutional format to it. - Recently, The Sunday Times wrote that
    NATO may deploy troops in the post-Soviet territories. The NATO member
    states defense ministers will discuss this issue in the near future.

    What do you think will the tension in the West-Russia relations
    mitigate after the presidential elections in Ukraine? - The tension
    in the West-Russia relations can be partially mitigated if RF stop its
    interference in Ukraine's internal affairs and, in particular, all its
    actions towards destabilization of the country's eastern regions and
    separation of the country. But, even then these relationships will
    never be the same as they were before the crisis in Ukraine. Russia
    remains an important partner for the West, but it has become a much
    more important issue for the West to possibly neutralize and limit
    expansion of Russia's neo-imperialistic ambitions and their aggressive
    actions towards their implementation. Hence, the West will continue
    operating all, and particularly economic, levers available under its
    influence against Russia. Development of economic ties with China and
    other Asian countries, which in its turn is full of numerous risks,
    can no wise compensate for the losses, which Russia would have as a
    state, as well as Russia's political and particularly economic elite
    in the result of cooling of relations with the West. Moreover, the
    Eurasian economic cooperation, in its current format, pushed forward
    by Russia is not promising anymore. As a result, in not so distant
    future, Russia may face a deep and insurmountable economic crisis
    without ideological and systemic changes. All of this, in their turn,
    will cause a domestic political and internal power crisis, and may
    spur a new wave of social riot against the current authorities and,
    particularly, the President of Russia, and as a result it may lead
    to change of power though reshuffling of the power.

    EMMA GABRIELYAN

    Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2014/06/05/165557/

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