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ARMENIA AS A SOVEREIGN PARTNER STATE DOES NOT EXIST IN THE MIND OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION AUTHORITIES
June 5 2014
According to the expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security
and Development, Marta Ayvazyan, Russia will use Armenia at any time
as a coin in its political games. - The RA authorities were assuring
that no checkpoint can be installed between the Nagorno-Karabakh and
Armenia, but last week it became known that Armenia would be signing
the treaty to join the Eurasian Union by July 1, should Armenia agree
with the condition put forward by a founding member of the Union,
President of Kazakhstan. Armenia should join the Eurasian Union
with the UN-recognized borders, without Nagorno-Karabakh. How do
you explain the fact that the interests of Azerbaijan, which are not
associated with the Eurasian Union, are more consistently protected by
this union? - The matter that by joining the CU, Armenia, permanently
deprived of the opportunity to conduct an independent foreign policy,
will at least lose its economic ties with NK with installation of the
checkpoint or otherwise, was clear from the outset. Recall Russian
officials' voiced opinions and positions to this respect, and I am
confident that the RA authorities were well aware of it. Maybe it was
a surprise for them of how this requirement was put forward, but not
its essence. The matter that the relations with Azerbaijan were much
more important for Russia, and that Armenia is a reliable partner for
Russia and at all times Russia is only pursuing its national interests,
is also not new, and Russia keeps approving this fact.
Suffice it to recall the continuous transactions on the same of
attacking weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as the form and content of
the visit by the President of Russia to Azerbaijan, also numerous
statements made by various representatives of the Russian Federation,
which evidently prove that Armenia as an independent and sovereign
partner state with its own state interest does not exist in the minds
of RF authorities, and at any time Russia will use Armenia as a coin
in its political games, regardless of the possible consequences
for Armenia. On the other hand, Armenia's accession is not also
desirable for Kazakhstan and Belarus, whose relationships with Russia
within the CU are quite complex, because Armenia, being Russia's
puppet state, can be used against other CU member states during the
decision-making process. In my opinion, this is due to the form of
introducing the requirement and publicity of the content of Aliyev's
letter by Nazarbayev. At the same time, under created conditions, an
unexpected opportunity is granted to Armenia if not totally refuse
the CU membership, then at least to postpone it indefinitely, but
whether our authorities would be able to seize this opportunity. This
whole situation also leads to another painful conclusion; today,
the relations with Armenia are absolutely not important for virtually
any state, including the founder state of the European Union. - RF had
completed its supply of 100 T-90C tanks batch to Azerbaijan, supply of
the second batch with the same number of tanks to Baku is possible. On
May 26, it became also known that Russia is planning to supply another
batch of TOS-1A reactive flame-throwers to Azerbaijan. Russia side is
introducing the Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation with several
billion dollars as a "commercial transaction." How should Armenia, as
Russia's strategic partner, display itself under these conditions? -
In case of willingness and ability, possible displays are vary and are
on different dimensions, bilateral and multilateral, from reviewing the
terms for deployment of the Russian military base up to enhancement of
relations with NATO and signing of similar "commercial transactions"
with the member states. Given that this "commercial transactions" under
the conditions of unresolved conflict create tension and hinder the
peace settlement process that is underway for more than two decades,
violates a number of international norms and agreements in principle
reached within conflict settlement negotiations, including the UN
Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia
may also, if not, should, send respective notes of protest to Russian
authorities, raise this issue within the UN and the OSCE, demanding
that Russia fulfill its international commitments and refrain from
supplying weapons to one of the sides in conflict and so on. -
Recently, there are many views voiced that new possibilities for
signing the EU Association for are opened up. The French President
Hollande, in the framework of his visit to Armenia said that a new
version of Association Agreement should be thought for Armenia, which
would not prevent the decision to join the Customs Union. Do you see
such possibilities? - Association Agreement with a new version that
will contain a component of economic cooperation with necessary scope
and substantive content, would have practical rather than merely a
political significance, and will not obstruct the decision to join the
CU, to be more precise, it would be acceptable for the CU, I cannot
imagine. Generally, the future development between Armenia and EU
is incompatible with the CU membership with desired and practically
profitable direction for us, and it will be possible only if Armenia
would be able to avoid this structure. As I already mentioned, to
avoid the CU, a certain possibility was opened up after the events
in Astana. As to the French President's words, I would assess them
more like a political statement, which once again confirms the EU's
desire and willingness to continue the development of cooperation with
Armenia in the presence of respective political decision by Armenia
and provision of required conditions. - On June 27, signing of the EU
Association Agreement with Georgia is scheduled. Can a dividing line
emerge between Armenia and Georgia, given the fact that Russia has
increased its military presence in Armenia, and there is a danger for
the Russian military base to operate as an obstacle Georgia's way to
the European and Euro-Atlantic integration? - The dividing line between
Georgia and Armenia has emerged a long time ago and is strengthened
in concomitant with enhancement of Russia's dominant role in Armenia
and loss of our sovereignty. Today, Armenia, being under the absolute
dependence on Russia, serving to Russia's regional and geopolitical
interests, operating in line with them on various international
platforms, has turned into a source of instability and possibly a
military threat for the states in the region, particularly Georgia. On
June 27, the scheduled signing of the EU Association Agreement with
Georgia would not the cause of the dividing line, but will give a new
institutional format to it. - Recently, The Sunday Times wrote that
NATO may deploy troops in the post-Soviet territories. The NATO member
states defense ministers will discuss this issue in the near future.
What do you think will the tension in the West-Russia relations
mitigate after the presidential elections in Ukraine? - The tension
in the West-Russia relations can be partially mitigated if RF stop its
interference in Ukraine's internal affairs and, in particular, all its
actions towards destabilization of the country's eastern regions and
separation of the country. But, even then these relationships will
never be the same as they were before the crisis in Ukraine. Russia
remains an important partner for the West, but it has become a much
more important issue for the West to possibly neutralize and limit
expansion of Russia's neo-imperialistic ambitions and their aggressive
actions towards their implementation. Hence, the West will continue
operating all, and particularly economic, levers available under its
influence against Russia. Development of economic ties with China and
other Asian countries, which in its turn is full of numerous risks,
can no wise compensate for the losses, which Russia would have as a
state, as well as Russia's political and particularly economic elite
in the result of cooling of relations with the West. Moreover, the
Eurasian economic cooperation, in its current format, pushed forward
by Russia is not promising anymore. As a result, in not so distant
future, Russia may face a deep and insurmountable economic crisis
without ideological and systemic changes. All of this, in their turn,
will cause a domestic political and internal power crisis, and may
spur a new wave of social riot against the current authorities and,
particularly, the President of Russia, and as a result it may lead
to change of power though reshuffling of the power.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2014/06/05/165557/
June 5 2014
According to the expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security
and Development, Marta Ayvazyan, Russia will use Armenia at any time
as a coin in its political games. - The RA authorities were assuring
that no checkpoint can be installed between the Nagorno-Karabakh and
Armenia, but last week it became known that Armenia would be signing
the treaty to join the Eurasian Union by July 1, should Armenia agree
with the condition put forward by a founding member of the Union,
President of Kazakhstan. Armenia should join the Eurasian Union
with the UN-recognized borders, without Nagorno-Karabakh. How do
you explain the fact that the interests of Azerbaijan, which are not
associated with the Eurasian Union, are more consistently protected by
this union? - The matter that by joining the CU, Armenia, permanently
deprived of the opportunity to conduct an independent foreign policy,
will at least lose its economic ties with NK with installation of the
checkpoint or otherwise, was clear from the outset. Recall Russian
officials' voiced opinions and positions to this respect, and I am
confident that the RA authorities were well aware of it. Maybe it was
a surprise for them of how this requirement was put forward, but not
its essence. The matter that the relations with Azerbaijan were much
more important for Russia, and that Armenia is a reliable partner for
Russia and at all times Russia is only pursuing its national interests,
is also not new, and Russia keeps approving this fact.
Suffice it to recall the continuous transactions on the same of
attacking weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as the form and content of
the visit by the President of Russia to Azerbaijan, also numerous
statements made by various representatives of the Russian Federation,
which evidently prove that Armenia as an independent and sovereign
partner state with its own state interest does not exist in the minds
of RF authorities, and at any time Russia will use Armenia as a coin
in its political games, regardless of the possible consequences
for Armenia. On the other hand, Armenia's accession is not also
desirable for Kazakhstan and Belarus, whose relationships with Russia
within the CU are quite complex, because Armenia, being Russia's
puppet state, can be used against other CU member states during the
decision-making process. In my opinion, this is due to the form of
introducing the requirement and publicity of the content of Aliyev's
letter by Nazarbayev. At the same time, under created conditions, an
unexpected opportunity is granted to Armenia if not totally refuse
the CU membership, then at least to postpone it indefinitely, but
whether our authorities would be able to seize this opportunity. This
whole situation also leads to another painful conclusion; today,
the relations with Armenia are absolutely not important for virtually
any state, including the founder state of the European Union. - RF had
completed its supply of 100 T-90C tanks batch to Azerbaijan, supply of
the second batch with the same number of tanks to Baku is possible. On
May 26, it became also known that Russia is planning to supply another
batch of TOS-1A reactive flame-throwers to Azerbaijan. Russia side is
introducing the Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation with several
billion dollars as a "commercial transaction." How should Armenia, as
Russia's strategic partner, display itself under these conditions? -
In case of willingness and ability, possible displays are vary and are
on different dimensions, bilateral and multilateral, from reviewing the
terms for deployment of the Russian military base up to enhancement of
relations with NATO and signing of similar "commercial transactions"
with the member states. Given that this "commercial transactions" under
the conditions of unresolved conflict create tension and hinder the
peace settlement process that is underway for more than two decades,
violates a number of international norms and agreements in principle
reached within conflict settlement negotiations, including the UN
Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia
may also, if not, should, send respective notes of protest to Russian
authorities, raise this issue within the UN and the OSCE, demanding
that Russia fulfill its international commitments and refrain from
supplying weapons to one of the sides in conflict and so on. -
Recently, there are many views voiced that new possibilities for
signing the EU Association for are opened up. The French President
Hollande, in the framework of his visit to Armenia said that a new
version of Association Agreement should be thought for Armenia, which
would not prevent the decision to join the Customs Union. Do you see
such possibilities? - Association Agreement with a new version that
will contain a component of economic cooperation with necessary scope
and substantive content, would have practical rather than merely a
political significance, and will not obstruct the decision to join the
CU, to be more precise, it would be acceptable for the CU, I cannot
imagine. Generally, the future development between Armenia and EU
is incompatible with the CU membership with desired and practically
profitable direction for us, and it will be possible only if Armenia
would be able to avoid this structure. As I already mentioned, to
avoid the CU, a certain possibility was opened up after the events
in Astana. As to the French President's words, I would assess them
more like a political statement, which once again confirms the EU's
desire and willingness to continue the development of cooperation with
Armenia in the presence of respective political decision by Armenia
and provision of required conditions. - On June 27, signing of the EU
Association Agreement with Georgia is scheduled. Can a dividing line
emerge between Armenia and Georgia, given the fact that Russia has
increased its military presence in Armenia, and there is a danger for
the Russian military base to operate as an obstacle Georgia's way to
the European and Euro-Atlantic integration? - The dividing line between
Georgia and Armenia has emerged a long time ago and is strengthened
in concomitant with enhancement of Russia's dominant role in Armenia
and loss of our sovereignty. Today, Armenia, being under the absolute
dependence on Russia, serving to Russia's regional and geopolitical
interests, operating in line with them on various international
platforms, has turned into a source of instability and possibly a
military threat for the states in the region, particularly Georgia. On
June 27, the scheduled signing of the EU Association Agreement with
Georgia would not the cause of the dividing line, but will give a new
institutional format to it. - Recently, The Sunday Times wrote that
NATO may deploy troops in the post-Soviet territories. The NATO member
states defense ministers will discuss this issue in the near future.
What do you think will the tension in the West-Russia relations
mitigate after the presidential elections in Ukraine? - The tension
in the West-Russia relations can be partially mitigated if RF stop its
interference in Ukraine's internal affairs and, in particular, all its
actions towards destabilization of the country's eastern regions and
separation of the country. But, even then these relationships will
never be the same as they were before the crisis in Ukraine. Russia
remains an important partner for the West, but it has become a much
more important issue for the West to possibly neutralize and limit
expansion of Russia's neo-imperialistic ambitions and their aggressive
actions towards their implementation. Hence, the West will continue
operating all, and particularly economic, levers available under its
influence against Russia. Development of economic ties with China and
other Asian countries, which in its turn is full of numerous risks,
can no wise compensate for the losses, which Russia would have as a
state, as well as Russia's political and particularly economic elite
in the result of cooling of relations with the West. Moreover, the
Eurasian economic cooperation, in its current format, pushed forward
by Russia is not promising anymore. As a result, in not so distant
future, Russia may face a deep and insurmountable economic crisis
without ideological and systemic changes. All of this, in their turn,
will cause a domestic political and internal power crisis, and may
spur a new wave of social riot against the current authorities and,
particularly, the President of Russia, and as a result it may lead
to change of power though reshuffling of the power.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2014/06/05/165557/