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YANA AMELINA: THE WEST OR RUSSIA, THAT IS THE QUESTION
ArmInfo's interview with Yana Amelina, senior research fellow at the
Russian Institute for Strategic Studies
by David Stepanyan
Friday, June 6, 17:43
The EAEU is often called a 'union of dictators' for the known
reasons. In Armenia, there are concerns that accession to the EAEU
will deteriorate the problems with democracy...
I don't think that the EAEU is 'often' called as a 'union of
dictators.' No one except liberal journalists uses such expressions.
I don't know what 'known reasons' do you mean, but Russia, Belarus,
Armenia and Kazakhstan are known in the world as rather democratic
countries. There is no limit to perfection, though. Nevertheless,
speaking of dictatorship is rather odd in such case. I don't think
that accession to this inter-state union that, unfortunately, has only
one - economic component, may create any problems with democracy. Are
there any restrictions on the free elections, peaceful assemblies
or independent press in Armenia? Does the EAEU seek to make such
restrictions? At least, look at how openly we discuss all this.
Doesn't it mean that everything is good? We should not consider the
West as the etalon of democracy, should we?
Member of the Board - Minister in charge of the Development of
Integration and Macroeconomics Tatiana Valovaya has recently expressed
confidence that Armenia's joining the Eurasian Economic Union will
increase the investment attraction of the republic and Armenia will
become a field for the Customs Union states and other states to make
investments. However, it is not clear, how Armenia's joining the EAEU
is beneficial to the rest members of the Union in the economic sense.
Or maybe politics will recompense everything?
I fully agree with Valovaya that it is really beneficial to Armenia
to join the EAEU. As for the political component, the situation on
Armenia's joining the EAEU is rather simple. The complex geo-political
situation in the world requires strict definition: the West or Russia,
that is the question! And if the Russian Federation ensures Armenia's
military security, and de-facto, its existence as a state, is there any
sense to try to have good relations with permanent enemies of Russia?
A few days ago Ambassador of Russia to Armenia Ivan Volynkin told
journalists that the sale of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems and T-90
tanks to Azerbaijan was nothing but commerce. Won't that Russian-Azeri
"commerce" lead to a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh in light of more
and more incidents reported from the border?
Commerce is certainly a vice. Let's assume that our Ambassador
has used a wrong word. The real problem here is that Azerbaijan
can afford buying arms and not only from Russia and that war is
the only way for the Azeris - at least in theory - to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem in their favor. There will be the threat
of a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh as long as this conflict remains a
geopolitical problem.
I think the conflicting parties should try to maintain the status
quo. But the world is changing as quickly as is growing the number
of insane politicians and journalists. All this is fraught with both
local and global risks, which has been proved by the events in Ukraine.
Experts are seriously concerned over the high threat of the rapidly
developing crisis in Ukraine to the U.S.-France-Russia cooperation
over Karabakh conflict as part of the OSCE MG...
Frankly speaking, I cannot understand what cooperation is in
question. I think the fruitless meetings of the OSCE MG Co-Chairs
will be continued also in future. They will adopt no decisions. This
became evident yet long ago. Nevertheless, an inefficient negotiating
format is better than military actions," she said for conclusion.
The first meeting with the president-elect Petro Poroshenko with Barack
Obama openly indicated that neither the loss of Crimea nor the threat
of the country's spliting into two parts is able to re-orientate
Kyev from the West to the East. What scenario of developments do
you anticipate?
What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a real civil war. Much
there will depend on what Russia will do. More and more people are
showing displeasure with the Kremlin's policy and demand more active
interference in the events in Ukraine on both diplomatic and military
levels. And this is natural as most of the Russians regard Ukraine
as part of the all-Russian mental and geopolitical community and have
lots of friends and relatives in that country.
The bloodshed continuing in Ukraine for several weeks already is
horrifying and I am sure that Russia must interfere. Time will show in
what a form this will be done. In any case, the political and economic
chaos in Ukraine will continue to grow and this is fair: those who
have voted for Petro Poroshenko are worthy of this. Anyway, I have
no doubts that Ukraine will finally come under Russia's influence
and join the EAEU as a full member of it.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=6A6D02E0-ED81-11E3-A6620EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's interview with Yana Amelina, senior research fellow at the
Russian Institute for Strategic Studies
by David Stepanyan
Friday, June 6, 17:43
The EAEU is often called a 'union of dictators' for the known
reasons. In Armenia, there are concerns that accession to the EAEU
will deteriorate the problems with democracy...
I don't think that the EAEU is 'often' called as a 'union of
dictators.' No one except liberal journalists uses such expressions.
I don't know what 'known reasons' do you mean, but Russia, Belarus,
Armenia and Kazakhstan are known in the world as rather democratic
countries. There is no limit to perfection, though. Nevertheless,
speaking of dictatorship is rather odd in such case. I don't think
that accession to this inter-state union that, unfortunately, has only
one - economic component, may create any problems with democracy. Are
there any restrictions on the free elections, peaceful assemblies
or independent press in Armenia? Does the EAEU seek to make such
restrictions? At least, look at how openly we discuss all this.
Doesn't it mean that everything is good? We should not consider the
West as the etalon of democracy, should we?
Member of the Board - Minister in charge of the Development of
Integration and Macroeconomics Tatiana Valovaya has recently expressed
confidence that Armenia's joining the Eurasian Economic Union will
increase the investment attraction of the republic and Armenia will
become a field for the Customs Union states and other states to make
investments. However, it is not clear, how Armenia's joining the EAEU
is beneficial to the rest members of the Union in the economic sense.
Or maybe politics will recompense everything?
I fully agree with Valovaya that it is really beneficial to Armenia
to join the EAEU. As for the political component, the situation on
Armenia's joining the EAEU is rather simple. The complex geo-political
situation in the world requires strict definition: the West or Russia,
that is the question! And if the Russian Federation ensures Armenia's
military security, and de-facto, its existence as a state, is there any
sense to try to have good relations with permanent enemies of Russia?
A few days ago Ambassador of Russia to Armenia Ivan Volynkin told
journalists that the sale of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems and T-90
tanks to Azerbaijan was nothing but commerce. Won't that Russian-Azeri
"commerce" lead to a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh in light of more
and more incidents reported from the border?
Commerce is certainly a vice. Let's assume that our Ambassador
has used a wrong word. The real problem here is that Azerbaijan
can afford buying arms and not only from Russia and that war is
the only way for the Azeris - at least in theory - to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem in their favor. There will be the threat
of a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh as long as this conflict remains a
geopolitical problem.
I think the conflicting parties should try to maintain the status
quo. But the world is changing as quickly as is growing the number
of insane politicians and journalists. All this is fraught with both
local and global risks, which has been proved by the events in Ukraine.
Experts are seriously concerned over the high threat of the rapidly
developing crisis in Ukraine to the U.S.-France-Russia cooperation
over Karabakh conflict as part of the OSCE MG...
Frankly speaking, I cannot understand what cooperation is in
question. I think the fruitless meetings of the OSCE MG Co-Chairs
will be continued also in future. They will adopt no decisions. This
became evident yet long ago. Nevertheless, an inefficient negotiating
format is better than military actions," she said for conclusion.
The first meeting with the president-elect Petro Poroshenko with Barack
Obama openly indicated that neither the loss of Crimea nor the threat
of the country's spliting into two parts is able to re-orientate
Kyev from the West to the East. What scenario of developments do
you anticipate?
What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a real civil war. Much
there will depend on what Russia will do. More and more people are
showing displeasure with the Kremlin's policy and demand more active
interference in the events in Ukraine on both diplomatic and military
levels. And this is natural as most of the Russians regard Ukraine
as part of the all-Russian mental and geopolitical community and have
lots of friends and relatives in that country.
The bloodshed continuing in Ukraine for several weeks already is
horrifying and I am sure that Russia must interfere. Time will show in
what a form this will be done. In any case, the political and economic
chaos in Ukraine will continue to grow and this is fair: those who
have voted for Petro Poroshenko are worthy of this. Anyway, I have
no doubts that Ukraine will finally come under Russia's influence
and join the EAEU as a full member of it.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=6A6D02E0-ED81-11E3-A6620EB7C0D21663