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THOMAS DE WAAL: AZERBAIJAN CANNOT HAVE GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH WASHINGTON IF IT DECLARE WAR ON STATE DEPARTMENT
20:00 12/06/2014 >> REGION
There are currently few prospects of a thaw between Azerbaijan and the
U.S., reads the article of Senior Associate Russia and Eurasia
Program Thomas de Waal, that was published on the site of Carnegie
Moscow Center.
According to the article in the last year, Azerbaijan has embarked on a
crackdown targeted specifically against Western-leaning human rights,
civil society activists and opposition politicians. The victims have
included two opposition leaders, Ilgar Mammadov and Tofiq Yaqublu,
jailed in March; Anar Mammadli, head of a respected election monitoring
organization, recently imprisoned for five and a half years; prominent
Russian-language journalist Rauf Mirkadirov, arrested in April;
and, well-known experts Arif and Leyla Yunus, who have been stopped
from leaving the country and are under investigation. This is not
to mention many other lesser-known individuals who are in jail as
well as USAID and other Western-funded organizations, such as the
National Democratic Institute and Radio Liberty, that are under
constant pressure, de Waal notes.
According to him critical statements have rained down from the
United States and the European Union, Azerbaijan is the subject of
hearings in the Helsinki Commission in Congress on June 11. But when
Western officials have sounded the alarm they have been accused of
"interfering in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan."
The author notes that this has made for an ongoing clash between U.S.
Ambassador to Baku, Richard Morningstar and the Azerbaijani
government. The hawkish presidential official Ali Hasanov condemned
the ambassador's interview to Radio Liberty as an attempt to foment a
"Maidan" in Azerbaijan.
"The attacks, some of them quite personal in tone, have been made
even though Morningstar is the man the Azerbaijanis specifically
requested to be ambassador, having been the United States' envoy
on Caspian Sea oil and gas issues and one of the architects of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project, which is the cornerstone of
the country's independence," the expert writes.
According to him the Azerbaijani elite has many factions. There is
a Western-leaning group, in the Foreign Ministry and some other
ministries, which has clearly been losing the argument in recent
months. But it is not as though Baku has made a strong pivot to Moscow
either. It may be that the Azerbaijanis feel they can compartmentalize
the relationship. Yet, it should be obvious that you cannot have
a good relationship with Washington if you declare war on the main
interlocutor, the State Department.
The Armenian lobby still makes Baku's life difficult. Section 907 of
the Freedom Support Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in October 1992
during the Karabakh conflict, barring many types of U.S government
aid to Azerbaijan was never repealed, even though the Azerbaijanis
were defeated in the conflict. Yet, of course, the latest actions
only strengthen the anti-Azerbaijani message of the Armenian lobby.
There are currently few prospects of a thaw. Ambassador Morningstar
leaves in the summer after a scheduled two-year posting and there may
well be another long hiatus before his replacement is appointed. The
relationship is likely to become even more transactional and piecemeal,
the journalist writes.
According to de Waal the simplest explanation for the recent crackdown
may be that, after more than a decade in ruling power in Azerbaijan
are paranoid and isolated as their actions suggest.
"In that case the challenge for those in the U.S. administration who
want to maintain influence in Azerbaijan is to find messengers who
can get through some thick palace walls," he concludes.
Source: Panorama.am
20:00 12/06/2014 >> REGION
There are currently few prospects of a thaw between Azerbaijan and the
U.S., reads the article of Senior Associate Russia and Eurasia
Program Thomas de Waal, that was published on the site of Carnegie
Moscow Center.
According to the article in the last year, Azerbaijan has embarked on a
crackdown targeted specifically against Western-leaning human rights,
civil society activists and opposition politicians. The victims have
included two opposition leaders, Ilgar Mammadov and Tofiq Yaqublu,
jailed in March; Anar Mammadli, head of a respected election monitoring
organization, recently imprisoned for five and a half years; prominent
Russian-language journalist Rauf Mirkadirov, arrested in April;
and, well-known experts Arif and Leyla Yunus, who have been stopped
from leaving the country and are under investigation. This is not
to mention many other lesser-known individuals who are in jail as
well as USAID and other Western-funded organizations, such as the
National Democratic Institute and Radio Liberty, that are under
constant pressure, de Waal notes.
According to him critical statements have rained down from the
United States and the European Union, Azerbaijan is the subject of
hearings in the Helsinki Commission in Congress on June 11. But when
Western officials have sounded the alarm they have been accused of
"interfering in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan."
The author notes that this has made for an ongoing clash between U.S.
Ambassador to Baku, Richard Morningstar and the Azerbaijani
government. The hawkish presidential official Ali Hasanov condemned
the ambassador's interview to Radio Liberty as an attempt to foment a
"Maidan" in Azerbaijan.
"The attacks, some of them quite personal in tone, have been made
even though Morningstar is the man the Azerbaijanis specifically
requested to be ambassador, having been the United States' envoy
on Caspian Sea oil and gas issues and one of the architects of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project, which is the cornerstone of
the country's independence," the expert writes.
According to him the Azerbaijani elite has many factions. There is
a Western-leaning group, in the Foreign Ministry and some other
ministries, which has clearly been losing the argument in recent
months. But it is not as though Baku has made a strong pivot to Moscow
either. It may be that the Azerbaijanis feel they can compartmentalize
the relationship. Yet, it should be obvious that you cannot have
a good relationship with Washington if you declare war on the main
interlocutor, the State Department.
The Armenian lobby still makes Baku's life difficult. Section 907 of
the Freedom Support Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in October 1992
during the Karabakh conflict, barring many types of U.S government
aid to Azerbaijan was never repealed, even though the Azerbaijanis
were defeated in the conflict. Yet, of course, the latest actions
only strengthen the anti-Azerbaijani message of the Armenian lobby.
There are currently few prospects of a thaw. Ambassador Morningstar
leaves in the summer after a scheduled two-year posting and there may
well be another long hiatus before his replacement is appointed. The
relationship is likely to become even more transactional and piecemeal,
the journalist writes.
According to de Waal the simplest explanation for the recent crackdown
may be that, after more than a decade in ruling power in Azerbaijan
are paranoid and isolated as their actions suggest.
"In that case the challenge for those in the U.S. administration who
want to maintain influence in Azerbaijan is to find messengers who
can get through some thick palace walls," he concludes.
Source: Panorama.am