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Kremlin's Next Target In The Region
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Saturday, 21 June 2014, 15:34
The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov who was in Azerbaijan a few
days ago is coming to Yerevan. After Lavrov Azerbaijan announced that
Russia may benefit a lot if it supports Azerbaijan with the settlement
of the Artsakh issue. This statement is symptomatic provided
Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction with the U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group
James Warlick, accusing him of a pro-Armenian stance.
Apparently, though with difficulty but Warlick has succeeded saving
the viability of the Minks Group, and Russia is not able to keep his
promise to Turkey and Azerbaijan and withdraw the settlement of the
Karabakh issue from the Minsk Group. Lavrov spoke about this in Baku,
saying that pushing the Minsk Group back failed, and the best that can
be done at the moment is to prevent a new Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.
And the proposal of this meeting came from the French president
Francois Hollande who visited Azerbaijan and Armenia in May.
Ahead of Lavrov's visit Serzh Sargsyan went to Georgia . Serzh
Sargsyan's statement in Georgia regarding the Abkhazian railway is
notable. Sargsyan announced that the opening of the railway depends
not only on Armenia and Georgia, and there are other factors as well.
No doubt the other key factor is Russia.
However, the point is not only about the Abkhazian railway. There is
no such issue on the agenda. The point is that in Georgia Serzh
Sargsyan hints at common vision and common hindrances between Yerevan
and Tbilisi in the regional context when the Russian foreign minister
visiting Baku is trying to achieve the next agreement with Azerbaijan,
including on sale of another batch of weapon.
What Russia is currently weaving in the Caucasus will inevitably reach
Georgia. Russia will set to divide Georgia after successfully dividing
Armenia and Artsakh with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In this respect, the relationship between Georgia and Europe has
become a crucial security matter for Armenia. The Armenian government
must be aware that surrender to Russia will not ensure their personal
security, let alone the national security. At the same time, even with
this awareness the Armenian government does not have a practical will,
capacity and qualities to run a state policy, and the maximum thing
that it can do is to rely on Georgia which will soon appear under the
NATO umbrella.
Currently this umbrella is the last chance to maintain regional
balance. NATO presence in Turkey is not sufficient because NATO's
strategic priority is containment of Turkish presence. It will be done
through presence either in the Black Sea or in Georgia.
Serzh Sargsyan "honestly" admits that on September 3 he did something
that staked not only Armenia and Artsakh but also Georgia. At the same
time, he confesses with equal honesty that while it is meaningless to
rely on him, Georgia can still save him and us all.
Meanwhile, he can tell Lavrov in Yerevan that he had gone to Georgia
to make sure it has not occurred to Georgia to save the region.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32627#sthash.o0KkSUQe.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Saturday, 21 June 2014, 15:34
The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov who was in Azerbaijan a few
days ago is coming to Yerevan. After Lavrov Azerbaijan announced that
Russia may benefit a lot if it supports Azerbaijan with the settlement
of the Artsakh issue. This statement is symptomatic provided
Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction with the U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group
James Warlick, accusing him of a pro-Armenian stance.
Apparently, though with difficulty but Warlick has succeeded saving
the viability of the Minks Group, and Russia is not able to keep his
promise to Turkey and Azerbaijan and withdraw the settlement of the
Karabakh issue from the Minsk Group. Lavrov spoke about this in Baku,
saying that pushing the Minsk Group back failed, and the best that can
be done at the moment is to prevent a new Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.
And the proposal of this meeting came from the French president
Francois Hollande who visited Azerbaijan and Armenia in May.
Ahead of Lavrov's visit Serzh Sargsyan went to Georgia . Serzh
Sargsyan's statement in Georgia regarding the Abkhazian railway is
notable. Sargsyan announced that the opening of the railway depends
not only on Armenia and Georgia, and there are other factors as well.
No doubt the other key factor is Russia.
However, the point is not only about the Abkhazian railway. There is
no such issue on the agenda. The point is that in Georgia Serzh
Sargsyan hints at common vision and common hindrances between Yerevan
and Tbilisi in the regional context when the Russian foreign minister
visiting Baku is trying to achieve the next agreement with Azerbaijan,
including on sale of another batch of weapon.
What Russia is currently weaving in the Caucasus will inevitably reach
Georgia. Russia will set to divide Georgia after successfully dividing
Armenia and Artsakh with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In this respect, the relationship between Georgia and Europe has
become a crucial security matter for Armenia. The Armenian government
must be aware that surrender to Russia will not ensure their personal
security, let alone the national security. At the same time, even with
this awareness the Armenian government does not have a practical will,
capacity and qualities to run a state policy, and the maximum thing
that it can do is to rely on Georgia which will soon appear under the
NATO umbrella.
Currently this umbrella is the last chance to maintain regional
balance. NATO presence in Turkey is not sufficient because NATO's
strategic priority is containment of Turkish presence. It will be done
through presence either in the Black Sea or in Georgia.
Serzh Sargsyan "honestly" admits that on September 3 he did something
that staked not only Armenia and Artsakh but also Georgia. At the same
time, he confesses with equal honesty that while it is meaningless to
rely on him, Georgia can still save him and us all.
Meanwhile, he can tell Lavrov in Yerevan that he had gone to Georgia
to make sure it has not occurred to Georgia to save the region.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32627#sthash.o0KkSUQe.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian