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Ukraine may lose $100 bln in next three years if it stops cooperation
with Russia, Customs Union
13:13 * 21.06.14
Ukraine may lose about $100 billion within a period from 2015 to 2018
if it severs cooperation ties with the Customs Union of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan after reorienting towards the European Union,
the Committee of Civil Initiatives said in a report entitled "The
Dead-end of the Struggle of Integration Drives in Europe."
According to experts, the most vulnerable to losses might be Ukrainian
exports to Russia and other Customs Union countries, with an estimated
loss of $14.3-15.3 billion dollars a year. Apart from that, this shock
scenario would include deterioration in trade and economic relations
between Ukraine and the Customs Union countries and a slump in cash
proceeds from labor migration, where losses are estimated at seven to
eight billion US dollars a year.
Moreover, Ukraine will run a risk of having to buy Russian gas at
higher prices [an annual loss of 2.2-3.7 billion US dollars], a risk
of being short of Russian investments to a sum of about $2 billion a
year, a risk of Russians' refraining from trips to Ukraine ($1.5-1.6
billion), and a risk of scaling down of cooperation between Russian
and Ukrainian freight operators (an estimated loss of $0.4 billion)
Experts however say the most adverse effects of such shock scenario
would be felt for about two first years - in 2015 and 2016, with
subsequent normalization of relations in 2017 and 2018, TASS reports.
Armenian News - Tert.am
with Russia, Customs Union
13:13 * 21.06.14
Ukraine may lose about $100 billion within a period from 2015 to 2018
if it severs cooperation ties with the Customs Union of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan after reorienting towards the European Union,
the Committee of Civil Initiatives said in a report entitled "The
Dead-end of the Struggle of Integration Drives in Europe."
According to experts, the most vulnerable to losses might be Ukrainian
exports to Russia and other Customs Union countries, with an estimated
loss of $14.3-15.3 billion dollars a year. Apart from that, this shock
scenario would include deterioration in trade and economic relations
between Ukraine and the Customs Union countries and a slump in cash
proceeds from labor migration, where losses are estimated at seven to
eight billion US dollars a year.
Moreover, Ukraine will run a risk of having to buy Russian gas at
higher prices [an annual loss of 2.2-3.7 billion US dollars], a risk
of being short of Russian investments to a sum of about $2 billion a
year, a risk of Russians' refraining from trips to Ukraine ($1.5-1.6
billion), and a risk of scaling down of cooperation between Russian
and Ukrainian freight operators (an estimated loss of $0.4 billion)
Experts however say the most adverse effects of such shock scenario
would be felt for about two first years - in 2015 and 2016, with
subsequent normalization of relations in 2017 and 2018, TASS reports.
Armenian News - Tert.am