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GEOPOLITICAL WATERSHED: ARMENIA'S EASTERN PARTNERSHIP NEIGHBORS SIGNING EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENTS
ANALYSIS | 27.06.14 | 12:08
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/55623/armenia_european_union_association_agreement_georg ia_moldova_ukraine_russia
http://video.consilium.europa.eu
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Today, June 27, marks a geopolitical watershed for the Eastern
Europe region, including for Armenia, as three members of the Eastern
Partnership program, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, are due
to sign Association Agreements with the European Union in Brussels.
Armenia, which is a member of the program that also includes Belarus
and Azerbaijan, was on track to initial the deal during last November's
summit in Lithuania after more than three years of negotiations
with Brussels on the Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Area Agreements with the 28-nation bloc. But about three
months before that Yerevan effectively decided to walk away from the
process after announcing its plans to join a Russia-led trade bloc -
the Customs Union.
Many then said that Armenia's decision had been the result of massive
pressure from Russia that also appeared to have put similar pressure
on Ukraine which was originally due to sign the deal with the EU in
November. After the change of government in Ukraine as a result of
pro-EU protests the new authorities in Kyiv reaffirmed their commitment
to sign the agreement.
The main question that had been of concern to many is whether
Russia would try to prevent the signing of the deals by its former
Soviet allies. Ukraine has accused Russia of fueling and supporting
separatist sentiments in the east of the country and the EU and the
United States have prepared a new package of sanctions against Moscow
- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned on Thursday that these
sanctions could be imposed as early as Friday if Russia did not call
the separatists in eastern Ukraine to peace.
The main question reverberating in Armenia after the events of recent
months in Ukraine is how things would have turned out for Armenia
had it not abandoned the Association Agreement last September and
not declared its intention to accede to the Customs Union of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Many believe that Russia would have provoked a new escalation
of tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone that would have caused
enormous damage to Armenia. Then the West was not ready to defend
its post-Soviet partners, and the events in Ukraine, including the
annexation of the Crimea by Russia, is evidence of this. If Ukraine,
a much larger country having common borders with Europe, was unable to
withstand the Russian onslaught, then Armenia could simply be erased
from the world map.
Another important question is how the balance of forces in the larger
Eurasian region will change after the entry of three post-Soviet
countries into the European space and their separation from the Russian
imperial zone. No doubt, accession to the Free Trade Area of the EU
will give these countries a powerful incentive to development, but
more important will be their appearance under the security umbrella
of NATO. On June 25, a NATO ministerial meeting was held and it was
stated during that meeting that "no third country" would prevent the
expansion of the alliance. And although no start was given to the
process of Georgia's membership, a new package was given to it and
that package may include the deployment of some NATO infrastructures
in the territory of this country bordering on Armenia.
There are also NATO plans for Ukraine and Moldova.
Armenia continues its cooperation with NATO, moreover, an Armenian
peacekeeping brigade has for many years been involved in international
missions of the Alliance and is considered an informal NATO base
in Armenia. Secretary General of the Russia-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolay Bordyuzha arrived in Yerevan on
June 26 and on July 1-2 Yerevan is due to host a CSTO forum on the
inclusion of CSTO peacekeeping forces into international peacekeeping
processes. In this regard, Armenian experts do not rule out that
Russia will demand the transfer of the Armenian peacekeeping brigade
from under the aegis of NATO onto the framework of the CSTO. This
will finally isolate Armenia, which has already become marginalized
in the region.
Apart from the fact that Russia, together with Azerbaijan and Turkey,
has done everything to isolate Armenia from regional communication
projects, Georgia's entry into the Free Trade Area of the EU, as it
appears now, will become an insurmountable obstacle to Armenia's
membership in the Eurasian Union. Armenian Prime Minister Hovik
Abrahamyan on Thursday again said that Armenia's membership may be
delayed, but stressed that Armenia will by all means become a member
of the Eurasian Union.
In Armenia, there seem to be little worries in this regard, as
membership in the Eurasian Union appears to promise little benefits,
but big losses for the country's economy. During his recent talks in
Georgia President Serzh Sargsyan apparently got assurances that Tbilisi
would maintain a free trade regime with Yerevan after association
with the EU. The EU is not going to cancel the preferential customs
regime for Armenia either, but only if Armenia does not enter the
Eurasian Union.
ANALYSIS | 27.06.14 | 12:08
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/55623/armenia_european_union_association_agreement_georg ia_moldova_ukraine_russia
http://video.consilium.europa.eu
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Today, June 27, marks a geopolitical watershed for the Eastern
Europe region, including for Armenia, as three members of the Eastern
Partnership program, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, are due
to sign Association Agreements with the European Union in Brussels.
Armenia, which is a member of the program that also includes Belarus
and Azerbaijan, was on track to initial the deal during last November's
summit in Lithuania after more than three years of negotiations
with Brussels on the Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Area Agreements with the 28-nation bloc. But about three
months before that Yerevan effectively decided to walk away from the
process after announcing its plans to join a Russia-led trade bloc -
the Customs Union.
Many then said that Armenia's decision had been the result of massive
pressure from Russia that also appeared to have put similar pressure
on Ukraine which was originally due to sign the deal with the EU in
November. After the change of government in Ukraine as a result of
pro-EU protests the new authorities in Kyiv reaffirmed their commitment
to sign the agreement.
The main question that had been of concern to many is whether
Russia would try to prevent the signing of the deals by its former
Soviet allies. Ukraine has accused Russia of fueling and supporting
separatist sentiments in the east of the country and the EU and the
United States have prepared a new package of sanctions against Moscow
- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned on Thursday that these
sanctions could be imposed as early as Friday if Russia did not call
the separatists in eastern Ukraine to peace.
The main question reverberating in Armenia after the events of recent
months in Ukraine is how things would have turned out for Armenia
had it not abandoned the Association Agreement last September and
not declared its intention to accede to the Customs Union of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Many believe that Russia would have provoked a new escalation
of tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone that would have caused
enormous damage to Armenia. Then the West was not ready to defend
its post-Soviet partners, and the events in Ukraine, including the
annexation of the Crimea by Russia, is evidence of this. If Ukraine,
a much larger country having common borders with Europe, was unable to
withstand the Russian onslaught, then Armenia could simply be erased
from the world map.
Another important question is how the balance of forces in the larger
Eurasian region will change after the entry of three post-Soviet
countries into the European space and their separation from the Russian
imperial zone. No doubt, accession to the Free Trade Area of the EU
will give these countries a powerful incentive to development, but
more important will be their appearance under the security umbrella
of NATO. On June 25, a NATO ministerial meeting was held and it was
stated during that meeting that "no third country" would prevent the
expansion of the alliance. And although no start was given to the
process of Georgia's membership, a new package was given to it and
that package may include the deployment of some NATO infrastructures
in the territory of this country bordering on Armenia.
There are also NATO plans for Ukraine and Moldova.
Armenia continues its cooperation with NATO, moreover, an Armenian
peacekeeping brigade has for many years been involved in international
missions of the Alliance and is considered an informal NATO base
in Armenia. Secretary General of the Russia-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolay Bordyuzha arrived in Yerevan on
June 26 and on July 1-2 Yerevan is due to host a CSTO forum on the
inclusion of CSTO peacekeeping forces into international peacekeeping
processes. In this regard, Armenian experts do not rule out that
Russia will demand the transfer of the Armenian peacekeeping brigade
from under the aegis of NATO onto the framework of the CSTO. This
will finally isolate Armenia, which has already become marginalized
in the region.
Apart from the fact that Russia, together with Azerbaijan and Turkey,
has done everything to isolate Armenia from regional communication
projects, Georgia's entry into the Free Trade Area of the EU, as it
appears now, will become an insurmountable obstacle to Armenia's
membership in the Eurasian Union. Armenian Prime Minister Hovik
Abrahamyan on Thursday again said that Armenia's membership may be
delayed, but stressed that Armenia will by all means become a member
of the Eurasian Union.
In Armenia, there seem to be little worries in this regard, as
membership in the Eurasian Union appears to promise little benefits,
but big losses for the country's economy. During his recent talks in
Georgia President Serzh Sargsyan apparently got assurances that Tbilisi
would maintain a free trade regime with Yerevan after association
with the EU. The EU is not going to cancel the preferential customs
regime for Armenia either, but only if Armenia does not enter the
Eurasian Union.