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  • New Georgian Vector

    NEW GEORGIAN VECTOR

    Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
    Feb 28 2014

    28 February 2014 - 2:44pm

    Victoria Panfilova "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" exclusively for Vestnik
    Kavkaza

    Yesterday, the president of Georgia began his two-day visit to
    Armenia. The visit was to be expected, as Georgi Margvelashvili has
    already visited other neighboring countries. In Yerevan, the Georgian
    delegation was received at the highest level. During the two days,
    the messengers from Georgia met with the Armenian President, the
    Speaker of Parliament, the Prime Minister, members of the government,
    and finally, with the Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II.

    With all the warmth and hospitality that guests are surrounded with in
    the Caucasus, the Georgian delegation always have difficult moments in
    neighboring countries. Namely, when it comes to territorial integrity.

    Baku wants the guests to consider Nagorno-Karabakh part of their
    country that has been just temporarily torn away. Here it is much
    easier to respond for the representatives of Georgia, who are
    experiencing the same problems with Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
    than in Yerevan, where they hear the usual question from some media
    representatives about their attitude to Nagorno-Karabakh. Declaring
    that it is part of Azerbaijan is equivalent to insulting the host
    country. To support the Armenian stance means to condemn Georgia not
    only to problems with Azerbaijan, but dig themselves a deeper hole
    for the negotiations in Geneva on Abkhazia and South Ossetia issues.

    Naturally, supporters of independence of the former Georgian autonomies
    will put the question bluntly in the negotiations: Dear Georgians,
    recently in Yerevan you talked about Karabakh as an independent state,
    and on what basis are you denying independence to partially-recognized
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

    Therefore, Georgian delegations visiting neighbors have to be extremely
    careful and scrupulous in their choice of definitions. The previous
    authorities, by the way, were not exactly subtle. For example, one of
    Mikheil Saakashvili's visits to Azerbaijan turned into a real scandal
    with Armenia. Going into a rage, the Georgian leader said that Tbilisi
    and Baku should join forces and stifle the separatist sentiments in
    the region, be it Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia or South Ossetia. And it
    was said in a context that implied not only diplomatic efforts. Then
    the heat between Tbilisi and Yerevan reached such a degree that some
    time later, visiting Yerevan, Saakashvili was forced to move away from
    such vague comments on Nagorno-Karabakh about compulsory "non-violent
    solutions to the problem of justice," surprising Baku. The only
    thing to save him from a new scandal was the wise remark of a senior
    Azerbaijani official: "the gentleman answered the way he was asked -
    it is necessary to take the context into account."

    It certainly was not the only case where the expressive Georgian leader
    put himself and Georgia in an awkward position. Just remember the hasty
    congratulations to Yulia Tymoshenko on victory in the presidential
    elections in Ukraine, when in fact Yanukovych was the one to win! Or
    declaring Alexander Lukashenko to be a dictator ... in response to
    the Belorussian president's decision not to recognize the sovereignty
    of Belarus in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - it turned out that Tbilisi
    misunderstood the official assessment of Minsk.

    Georgia's new authorities are trying to manoeuvre, to avoid sharp
    corners. They proclaimed the continuation of the foreign policy
    vector to the West, but try not to "dance and chant" on this aspect
    too much, in order not to tease Russia. Especially taking into account
    that the date of entry into the EU and NATO is not so close, even if
    it is marked in someone's calendar. Such caution is understandable,
    but also naive. It is naive if Tbilisi seriously believes that Russia,
    evaluating their restraint, will change its position on the painful
    for Georgia issues of territorial integrity. Firstly, such a price
    offered by the new authorities is much too low, and secondly, they seem
    to repeat the mistake of their predecessors, transforming conflicts
    with Sukhumi and Tskhinvali into a conflict with Moscow. In words,
    they refused this, but in fact it is not visible.

    Such caution is manifested today in the Ukrainian question, as well.

    It is easy to imagine Tbilisi's attitude to the processes in the
    Maidan if Saakashvili remained in power. He himself so many times
    spoke in Kiev in support of the Maidan, that his reasonable countrymen
    encouraged him to know when to stop "bothering the Ukrainians." And
    the new authorities are in a quandary again. Not to support the
    "revolutionaries of Kiev" (when some time ago, Georgia's policy had
    an element of support from the Ukraine against Russia, when Kiev made
    repeated proposals to send Ukrainian peacekeepers to conflict zones)
    would be quite impolite. To express solidarity with the Maidan,
    to welcome the change of power, while Moscow is everything but
    happy about the Ukrainian processes, means to "perplex" Russia -
    and no relationship recovery can be dreamed in Georgia. And now the
    Deputy Prime Minister, Kakha Kaladze, has made a statement in which
    he tried to explain that Yanukovych's resignation is only supported in
    Georgia by ex-President Saakashvili and former representatives of the
    authorities, making themselves known thanks to the events in Ukraine.

    Okay, let's assume it's true. But what is the position of the current
    Tbilisi authorities?

    So far, the Foreign Ministry of Georgia has only expressed concern
    about the violence in its official statement. As an anonymous former
    Western diplomat dealing with the problems of the South Caucasus told
    Vestnik Kavkaza, "Tbilisi thinks that they are building a multi-vector
    policy. But this is not the way to do it - not with so much uncertainty
    on many key issues." A multi-vector, or complementarity policy was
    typical for Armenia, where the president of Georgia is now on a two-day
    visit. However, under severe pressure from various sides, such a policy
    is rarely viable. Especially in more or less the long term. The same
    complementary policy of Yerevan in recent years narrowed like shagreen
    leather and today has become largely focused only on Moscow.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/52016.html

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