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HOW RUSSIA CHANGED STATE OF THINGS IN TURKEY'S FAVOR
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Tuesday, 04 March 2014, 15:55
Despite the artificial upheaval of the Russian chauvinism engaging
the representatives of the establishment of the transition period who
have retired a long time ago, Moscow cannot hide that it is lost and
does not understand the meaning and perspectives of Putin's policy. It
is becoming clear that Putin is mad, he is in a hysteria and Olympic
self-importance.
The only real force that is able to curb Putin's ambitions is the
General Staff which is trying to verify and clarify the information
that is put on the president's table by different information agencies.
A lot of high-ranking military officials are risking their careers to
try to influence the political leadership and convey that a radical
policy is useless, and other ways of settlement of the problem should
be sought for.
Moscow is imposing the autonomous path onto the political activists in
Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea, hoping that in a state of federalization
Ukraine will remain on the orbit of Russian influence. It is not ruled
out that the Ukrainian elites have made a decision and are ready to
give up on those regions to keep their sovereignty.
If Russia hopes to incorporate Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov as well,
it is really fraught with a war, that will be Russia's nightmare
because it will have to fight with not only the Ukrainian army but
also the Ukrainian people, well-armed and, unlike the Russian people,
aware what it is fighting for.
Now the Russian politics addresses its only allies, Chechens and
Tatars, but the Russians remembered about them too late, and it is not
known how the Tatars of Crimea and Volga region will react. Recently
a big delegation of Tatars visited Crimea and supported the Tatars of
Crimea and Ukraine's territorial integrity. The question occurs why
the Tatars should support oligarchic Moscow. There is no motivation.
Is a second front emerging in the territory of Russia?
What will the new geopolitical configuration in Western Europe mean if
Russia gets the three regions of Ukraine? The Russians risk running
into the deadlock they created themselves for decades in favor of
those who have been trying to arrange this deadlock for 20 years.
In addition, a deadlock will occur in the Black Sea as well. Russia is
pushed to focus attention and efforts on Central Asia, and many people
are sincerely interested in having Russia as a significant power in
the direction of Central Asia. However, change of vector is possible
after erecting a wall in the Western direction. This is happening now.
"Maidan" simply triggered activation of foreign policy of Obama's
left liberal administration that had fallen in lethargy. Without
Obama's interference Maidan would not be able to make corrections
in the European geopolitics. However, Russia has set out to deal
with this perspective, actively pushing itself towards deadlock,
isolation and blockade.
Over the past few months Lragir.am has been using the key words
"isolation" and "blockade" in regard to Russia. Now these key words
are the most adequate notions describing the current situation. Moscow
will not be able to format the situation in a way that is acceptable
for the West. The regions that Russia intends to separate from Ukraine
are populated, aside from Russians, by millions of Ukrainians who are
not motivated to fight for the independence of Ukraine but this will
make a long-term issue for Moscow. The main concept of the Russian
propaganda is that there is no Ukrainian ethnicity and any attempt to
defend the independence of Ukraine is referred to as "Banderovshina".
Let's see what this concept will cost.
How can this new geopolitical situation be assessed in terms of
national interests of Armenia? In this case one may consider three
underlying factors.
Having appeared in international isolation Russia will drag its
vassals, primarily Armenia, into this abyss of isolation. Now it is
impossible to imagine what this will cost Armenia.
Aside from this, it is already clear that the United States and NATO
which skillfully handled the strategy of blockade and containment of
Turkey (which became a favorable perspective for Armenia) will now
have to recognize the Turkey's irreplaceability in the Euro-Atlantic
politics and resort to its help and services. The role of Armenia as
a participant of the policy of containment of Turkey is obsolete.
Having been left without partners, Russia uses its chauvinistic
propaganda to call for help the countries and nations whose interests
are not in line with the interests of Armenia. The colors of the
Slavic-Islamic-Turkic union are hoisted. What will these allies demand
from Russia in return for their services?
These topics will be discussed widely and substantively. They will
have to be.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32028#sthash.Di2ugKYn.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Tuesday, 04 March 2014, 15:55
Despite the artificial upheaval of the Russian chauvinism engaging
the representatives of the establishment of the transition period who
have retired a long time ago, Moscow cannot hide that it is lost and
does not understand the meaning and perspectives of Putin's policy. It
is becoming clear that Putin is mad, he is in a hysteria and Olympic
self-importance.
The only real force that is able to curb Putin's ambitions is the
General Staff which is trying to verify and clarify the information
that is put on the president's table by different information agencies.
A lot of high-ranking military officials are risking their careers to
try to influence the political leadership and convey that a radical
policy is useless, and other ways of settlement of the problem should
be sought for.
Moscow is imposing the autonomous path onto the political activists in
Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea, hoping that in a state of federalization
Ukraine will remain on the orbit of Russian influence. It is not ruled
out that the Ukrainian elites have made a decision and are ready to
give up on those regions to keep their sovereignty.
If Russia hopes to incorporate Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov as well,
it is really fraught with a war, that will be Russia's nightmare
because it will have to fight with not only the Ukrainian army but
also the Ukrainian people, well-armed and, unlike the Russian people,
aware what it is fighting for.
Now the Russian politics addresses its only allies, Chechens and
Tatars, but the Russians remembered about them too late, and it is not
known how the Tatars of Crimea and Volga region will react. Recently
a big delegation of Tatars visited Crimea and supported the Tatars of
Crimea and Ukraine's territorial integrity. The question occurs why
the Tatars should support oligarchic Moscow. There is no motivation.
Is a second front emerging in the territory of Russia?
What will the new geopolitical configuration in Western Europe mean if
Russia gets the three regions of Ukraine? The Russians risk running
into the deadlock they created themselves for decades in favor of
those who have been trying to arrange this deadlock for 20 years.
In addition, a deadlock will occur in the Black Sea as well. Russia is
pushed to focus attention and efforts on Central Asia, and many people
are sincerely interested in having Russia as a significant power in
the direction of Central Asia. However, change of vector is possible
after erecting a wall in the Western direction. This is happening now.
"Maidan" simply triggered activation of foreign policy of Obama's
left liberal administration that had fallen in lethargy. Without
Obama's interference Maidan would not be able to make corrections
in the European geopolitics. However, Russia has set out to deal
with this perspective, actively pushing itself towards deadlock,
isolation and blockade.
Over the past few months Lragir.am has been using the key words
"isolation" and "blockade" in regard to Russia. Now these key words
are the most adequate notions describing the current situation. Moscow
will not be able to format the situation in a way that is acceptable
for the West. The regions that Russia intends to separate from Ukraine
are populated, aside from Russians, by millions of Ukrainians who are
not motivated to fight for the independence of Ukraine but this will
make a long-term issue for Moscow. The main concept of the Russian
propaganda is that there is no Ukrainian ethnicity and any attempt to
defend the independence of Ukraine is referred to as "Banderovshina".
Let's see what this concept will cost.
How can this new geopolitical situation be assessed in terms of
national interests of Armenia? In this case one may consider three
underlying factors.
Having appeared in international isolation Russia will drag its
vassals, primarily Armenia, into this abyss of isolation. Now it is
impossible to imagine what this will cost Armenia.
Aside from this, it is already clear that the United States and NATO
which skillfully handled the strategy of blockade and containment of
Turkey (which became a favorable perspective for Armenia) will now
have to recognize the Turkey's irreplaceability in the Euro-Atlantic
politics and resort to its help and services. The role of Armenia as
a participant of the policy of containment of Turkey is obsolete.
Having been left without partners, Russia uses its chauvinistic
propaganda to call for help the countries and nations whose interests
are not in line with the interests of Armenia. The colors of the
Slavic-Islamic-Turkic union are hoisted. What will these allies demand
from Russia in return for their services?
These topics will be discussed widely and substantively. They will
have to be.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32028#sthash.Di2ugKYn.dpuf