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UKRAINE CRISIS MAY AFFECT PROCESSES OVER KARABAKH, SAYS EX-OFFICIAL
12:21 * 04.03.14
Tert.am has interviewed Lieutenant-General Vagharshak Harutyunyan, a
former Armenian minister of defense, over the developments in Ukraine,
particularly the tensions over the autonomous region of Crimea. The
former official said he thinks that a possible war with Russia may
also affect the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process.
According to him, Russia is not likely to seek any assistance from
Armenia in case of a war scenario despite the fact that the two
countries are strategic allies in the frameworks of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization.
Mr Harutyunyan, should, Heaven forbid, a Russian-Ukrainian war erupt,
to what extent is the renewal of diversion or even war operations
likely on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border?
What we see in the Russian-Ukrainian relations today - or rather
the consequences that led to a government change in Ukraine - will
naturally impact the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Let's, first of all,
try to make out what is going on there. What we see there is a conflict
between the West and Russia. And depending on the future developments,
that will affect the region and the processes bearing a direct relation
to us, including the Karabakh conflict.
What impacts do you mean?
Some of the political forces that have come to power in Ukraine have
fought in both Chechnya and Karabakh. Ukraine very actively aided
Azerbaijan in that period by selling a large quantity of weapons.
Hence, the present-day government's position on the Karabakh conflict
is more negative: it's to the detriment of Armenia and Karabakh. Let me
also note that the West has involved Ukraine involved in the [regional]
organization GUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova], which
aims to counterbalance the Russian policies, and of which Azerbaijan
is a member.
>From what we know at the moment is that the Ukrainian government
has a problem in terms of protecting its own sovereignty and the
country's territorial integrity.
Yes, they are busy with their own problems, but we must be able to
distinguish between the governments that offer or fail to offer any
advantages to Armenia and Karabakh. If Russia loses Crimea, and the
Black Sea Fleet leaves the territory - something the present-day
Ukrainian authorities speak of - Turkey will automatically become
a dominant state in the Black Sea [region]. So, it's now for you to
think what is harmful or useful to us.
Mr Harutyunyan, Armenia is a member state of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO). So in case a war breaks out, are you
aware what agreements have been signed or whether Armenia is obliged
to dispatch any troops?
If you have noticed, Russia has not asked any assistance from the CSTO
member states. Russia does not have such a purpose and will not turn
[to anyone for help].
Do you think this a cold war between Russia and the West or have
the sides crossed the boundary, given the reports on economic and
diplomatic sanctions?
I don't think so as the West's reaction was not so tough. Europe is
not homogeneous, so I am confident that their approaches vary on that.
Yes, they will try to exert pressures on Russia; they will resort
to different operations - ranging from political to economic
pressures - but that will not yield any result, as everything will
be re-established later.
What outcome do you nonetheless predict? War or no war?
As to the war, I don't think it likely, because a war may erupt only
in case Ukraine declares it. But Ukraine does not have that capacity,
with its Army being too weak to fight the Russian armed forces.
To the best of my knowledge, Russia also expects NATO's assistance.
So NATO will never deploy forces there. And no one will launch a
enter into a military conflict with Russia. And Russia will try to
avoid military operations unless the Russian-speaking population
in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, as well as the rest of the country is
subjected to force.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/03/04/harutyunyan/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
12:21 * 04.03.14
Tert.am has interviewed Lieutenant-General Vagharshak Harutyunyan, a
former Armenian minister of defense, over the developments in Ukraine,
particularly the tensions over the autonomous region of Crimea. The
former official said he thinks that a possible war with Russia may
also affect the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process.
According to him, Russia is not likely to seek any assistance from
Armenia in case of a war scenario despite the fact that the two
countries are strategic allies in the frameworks of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization.
Mr Harutyunyan, should, Heaven forbid, a Russian-Ukrainian war erupt,
to what extent is the renewal of diversion or even war operations
likely on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border?
What we see in the Russian-Ukrainian relations today - or rather
the consequences that led to a government change in Ukraine - will
naturally impact the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Let's, first of all,
try to make out what is going on there. What we see there is a conflict
between the West and Russia. And depending on the future developments,
that will affect the region and the processes bearing a direct relation
to us, including the Karabakh conflict.
What impacts do you mean?
Some of the political forces that have come to power in Ukraine have
fought in both Chechnya and Karabakh. Ukraine very actively aided
Azerbaijan in that period by selling a large quantity of weapons.
Hence, the present-day government's position on the Karabakh conflict
is more negative: it's to the detriment of Armenia and Karabakh. Let me
also note that the West has involved Ukraine involved in the [regional]
organization GUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova], which
aims to counterbalance the Russian policies, and of which Azerbaijan
is a member.
>From what we know at the moment is that the Ukrainian government
has a problem in terms of protecting its own sovereignty and the
country's territorial integrity.
Yes, they are busy with their own problems, but we must be able to
distinguish between the governments that offer or fail to offer any
advantages to Armenia and Karabakh. If Russia loses Crimea, and the
Black Sea Fleet leaves the territory - something the present-day
Ukrainian authorities speak of - Turkey will automatically become
a dominant state in the Black Sea [region]. So, it's now for you to
think what is harmful or useful to us.
Mr Harutyunyan, Armenia is a member state of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO). So in case a war breaks out, are you
aware what agreements have been signed or whether Armenia is obliged
to dispatch any troops?
If you have noticed, Russia has not asked any assistance from the CSTO
member states. Russia does not have such a purpose and will not turn
[to anyone for help].
Do you think this a cold war between Russia and the West or have
the sides crossed the boundary, given the reports on economic and
diplomatic sanctions?
I don't think so as the West's reaction was not so tough. Europe is
not homogeneous, so I am confident that their approaches vary on that.
Yes, they will try to exert pressures on Russia; they will resort
to different operations - ranging from political to economic
pressures - but that will not yield any result, as everything will
be re-established later.
What outcome do you nonetheless predict? War or no war?
As to the war, I don't think it likely, because a war may erupt only
in case Ukraine declares it. But Ukraine does not have that capacity,
with its Army being too weak to fight the Russian armed forces.
To the best of my knowledge, Russia also expects NATO's assistance.
So NATO will never deploy forces there. And no one will launch a
enter into a military conflict with Russia. And Russia will try to
avoid military operations unless the Russian-speaking population
in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, as well as the rest of the country is
subjected to force.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/03/04/harutyunyan/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress