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Orange County Register (California)
March 7, 2014 Friday
Following the Russian playbook
By JAMES J. COYLE, Contributing Writer
Unlikely that U.S. or Europe will militarily intervene.
Moscow has a long history of using military force to maintain its
control over areas it considers part of its empire. East Berlin,
Hungary and Czechoslovakia are examples from Cold War history. Other
examples are less well known in the West, but are still significant.
On Dec. 27, 1979, Soviet forces dressed in Afghan army uniforms took
over the major government and military installations in Kabul,
Afghanistan. Russia recognized Babrak Karmal as the rightful leader of
Afghanistan and then heeded his request for intervention (broadcast
from his location inside the Soviet Union) to justify the invasion.
The Soviets announced their military action was to protect the
socialist revolution in Afghanistan.
A decade later, as the Soviet Union collapsed, a section of Moldova
separated from that country and unilaterally declared its
independence. This separatist region, the Trans-Dniester, was
supported by Moscow in a brief war in 1992. Russian troops then moved
into the area as peacekeepers.
Russia now chairs fruitless peace talks between the two sides. Russia
also used its position in Trans-Dniester as justification to cancel
its involvement with the Conventional Forces in Europe arms limitation
treaty.
In the same period, areas within Georgia broke away from that country.
These separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, declared their
independence. Russia again moved troops into the area as peacekeepers
and co-chaired peace talks that have gone nowhere. In 2008, when
Georgia tried to restore its sovereignty over these separatist areas,
Moscow fought a war with that country, supposedly to protect Russian
citizens living in the breakaway republics. Russia has since
recognized the two areas as sovereign nations and kept their forces on
the Georgian border.
In 1991-94 Armenia invaded around one-fifth of Azerbaijan's territory,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region. During the war, Armenia was
heavily supported by the Russian military. Today, the largest Russian
military base outside of Russian territory is located in Armenia.
The United Nations Security Council passed four resolutions
acknowledging that Nagorno- Karabakh and the surrounding occupied
territories are part of Azerbaijan, and demanding immediate withdrawal
of all Armenian troops from the occupied territories. But the
resolutions remain unfulfilled by Russian-backed Armenia. Given
Russia's veto power on the Security Council, it is not surprising that
the Council does nothing to push for the implementation of its own
resolutions.
As in Moldova and Georgia, Russia is a cosponsor of peace talks that
have not solved the conflict.
Now it is Ukraine's turn. Russian military units dressed in uniforms
without insignia (but driving Russian-licensed military vehicles)
occupied or surrounded major governmental and military installations
in Crimea. Russia has recognized Sergei Aksyonov as the leader of
Crimea, despite his party having the support of 3 percent of the
people. Russia is defending its moves in the area as an effort to
protect Russian citizens in Crimea. As NATO forces mass on the Polish
border and the United States calls for a cease-fire, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has ended military maneuvers on the Russian-Ukrainian
border. He said he has not ruled out direct military intervention in
the east of the country, if necessary to protect Russian citizens.
If history is a guide, neither Europe nor the United States will
militarily defend Ukraine's independence. Any United Nations
resolution will call for respecting the territorial integrity of
Ukraine, but will not contain enforcement provisions or a condemnation
of Russian moves.
A cease-fire will be established, with Russian troops acting as
peacekeepers. Russia will co-chair peace talks that will enshrine
their continued involvement. Russia, controlling Ukraine's northern
borders and the Crimea, will have a stranglehold on that nation's
independence. American prestige in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
will slip another notch.
American politicians are calling for steps to roll back Russian gains
in Crimea. For their calls to be heeded, they should first call for
the removal of Russian troops in the conflicts in Moldova, Georgia and
Azerbaijan.
James J. Coyle, Ph.D., is
the director of Global
Education at Chapman
University and is chair of the
Eurasian committee of the Pacific
Council on International Policy.
March 7, 2014 Friday
Following the Russian playbook
By JAMES J. COYLE, Contributing Writer
Unlikely that U.S. or Europe will militarily intervene.
Moscow has a long history of using military force to maintain its
control over areas it considers part of its empire. East Berlin,
Hungary and Czechoslovakia are examples from Cold War history. Other
examples are less well known in the West, but are still significant.
On Dec. 27, 1979, Soviet forces dressed in Afghan army uniforms took
over the major government and military installations in Kabul,
Afghanistan. Russia recognized Babrak Karmal as the rightful leader of
Afghanistan and then heeded his request for intervention (broadcast
from his location inside the Soviet Union) to justify the invasion.
The Soviets announced their military action was to protect the
socialist revolution in Afghanistan.
A decade later, as the Soviet Union collapsed, a section of Moldova
separated from that country and unilaterally declared its
independence. This separatist region, the Trans-Dniester, was
supported by Moscow in a brief war in 1992. Russian troops then moved
into the area as peacekeepers.
Russia now chairs fruitless peace talks between the two sides. Russia
also used its position in Trans-Dniester as justification to cancel
its involvement with the Conventional Forces in Europe arms limitation
treaty.
In the same period, areas within Georgia broke away from that country.
These separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, declared their
independence. Russia again moved troops into the area as peacekeepers
and co-chaired peace talks that have gone nowhere. In 2008, when
Georgia tried to restore its sovereignty over these separatist areas,
Moscow fought a war with that country, supposedly to protect Russian
citizens living in the breakaway republics. Russia has since
recognized the two areas as sovereign nations and kept their forces on
the Georgian border.
In 1991-94 Armenia invaded around one-fifth of Azerbaijan's territory,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region. During the war, Armenia was
heavily supported by the Russian military. Today, the largest Russian
military base outside of Russian territory is located in Armenia.
The United Nations Security Council passed four resolutions
acknowledging that Nagorno- Karabakh and the surrounding occupied
territories are part of Azerbaijan, and demanding immediate withdrawal
of all Armenian troops from the occupied territories. But the
resolutions remain unfulfilled by Russian-backed Armenia. Given
Russia's veto power on the Security Council, it is not surprising that
the Council does nothing to push for the implementation of its own
resolutions.
As in Moldova and Georgia, Russia is a cosponsor of peace talks that
have not solved the conflict.
Now it is Ukraine's turn. Russian military units dressed in uniforms
without insignia (but driving Russian-licensed military vehicles)
occupied or surrounded major governmental and military installations
in Crimea. Russia has recognized Sergei Aksyonov as the leader of
Crimea, despite his party having the support of 3 percent of the
people. Russia is defending its moves in the area as an effort to
protect Russian citizens in Crimea. As NATO forces mass on the Polish
border and the United States calls for a cease-fire, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has ended military maneuvers on the Russian-Ukrainian
border. He said he has not ruled out direct military intervention in
the east of the country, if necessary to protect Russian citizens.
If history is a guide, neither Europe nor the United States will
militarily defend Ukraine's independence. Any United Nations
resolution will call for respecting the territorial integrity of
Ukraine, but will not contain enforcement provisions or a condemnation
of Russian moves.
A cease-fire will be established, with Russian troops acting as
peacekeepers. Russia will co-chair peace talks that will enshrine
their continued involvement. Russia, controlling Ukraine's northern
borders and the Crimea, will have a stranglehold on that nation's
independence. American prestige in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
will slip another notch.
American politicians are calling for steps to roll back Russian gains
in Crimea. For their calls to be heeded, they should first call for
the removal of Russian troops in the conflicts in Moldova, Georgia and
Azerbaijan.
James J. Coyle, Ph.D., is
the director of Global
Education at Chapman
University and is chair of the
Eurasian committee of the Pacific
Council on International Policy.