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RUSSIA CANNOT DO WITHOUT TURKEY
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Monday, 10 March 2014, 16:34
The EU HR Catherine Ashton went to Tehran and met with the president
and foreign minister of Iran yesterday.
Iran and the West are trying to normalize their relations, and soon a
new power will emerge in our region which will try to open the region.
In parallel, interesting developments are on the track in Turkey which
is preparing for municipal elections. Erdogan's party's rating has
reached a historical low and the Turkish prime minister has announced
that he will resign in case his party does not win majority. In other
words, a change of government is not ruled out in Turkey.
In this context, Turkey will not be able to promote its interests in
Crimea and the Black Sea at full. At the end of this month a change
of government may take place in that country, and it is hard to guess
the stance of the new government on the Armenian genocide and the
settlement of Karabakh.
For the time being, Russia and Turkey have blocked the South Caucasus.
In case the blockade is broken through, Iran and the West will
have a region open for transit, and Armenia could gain an important
geopolitical role.
Currently, time in geopolitics is counted in hours, not days. The
referendum scheduled on March 30 was proponed to March 16. Russia
needs to hold the referendum before possible domestic shock in Turkey
because Putin would have difficulty confronting the United States
and NATO without Erdogan.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32066#sthash.K2whaUOJ.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Monday, 10 March 2014, 16:34
The EU HR Catherine Ashton went to Tehran and met with the president
and foreign minister of Iran yesterday.
Iran and the West are trying to normalize their relations, and soon a
new power will emerge in our region which will try to open the region.
In parallel, interesting developments are on the track in Turkey which
is preparing for municipal elections. Erdogan's party's rating has
reached a historical low and the Turkish prime minister has announced
that he will resign in case his party does not win majority. In other
words, a change of government is not ruled out in Turkey.
In this context, Turkey will not be able to promote its interests in
Crimea and the Black Sea at full. At the end of this month a change
of government may take place in that country, and it is hard to guess
the stance of the new government on the Armenian genocide and the
settlement of Karabakh.
For the time being, Russia and Turkey have blocked the South Caucasus.
In case the blockade is broken through, Iran and the West will
have a region open for transit, and Armenia could gain an important
geopolitical role.
Currently, time in geopolitics is counted in hours, not days. The
referendum scheduled on March 30 was proponed to March 16. Russia
needs to hold the referendum before possible domestic shock in Turkey
because Putin would have difficulty confronting the United States
and NATO without Erdogan.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32066#sthash.K2whaUOJ.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian