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Deutsche Welle, Germany
March 15 2014
Putin's power play jeopardizes Eurasian Union plans
President Vladimir Putin aims to create an Eurasian Union where the
Soviet Union once reigned. But Moscow's intervention in Crimea could
make former Soviet republics think twice about deeper integration with
Russia.
During his annual address to the Russian parliament back in 2005,
President Putin publicly lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union,
calling it "a major geopolitical disaster of the century." The former
KGB man laid out his solution to this "disaster" in a 2011 newspaper
editorial, in which he called for the creation of an Eurasian Union.
"First, none of this entails any kind of revival of the Soviet Union,"
Putin wrote in the daily Izvestia. "It would be naïve to revive or
emulate something that has been consigned to history. But these times
call for a close integration based on new values and a new political
and economic foundation."
"We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming
one of the poles in the modern world and serving as an efficient
bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region," he
continued.
Neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan have signed up to join Russia in
this integration project. In 2010, the three ex-Soviet republics
formed a common customs union. Meanwhile, they have agreed to make the
Eurasian Economic Union a reality by January 1, 2015.
Close, but not too close?
"According to Putin, it has to be a political alliance, not only the
customs union, with supranational institutions that will be hosted by
Moscow and apparently dominated by Russia," Lilia Shevtsova, a Russia
expert with Carnegie Moscow, told DW.
'Anti-thesis to the West'
While Shevtsova described the Eurasian Union as Putin's "pet project,"
she said that the concept of Eurasianism as an ideology developed in
early 20th century Russia as an "antithesis to the West."
"The major principle of Eurasianism is that Russia has to be the pole
of a new civilization, which is situated on the huge Eurasian
territory that includes a European part and an Asian part," Shevtsova
said. "Russia is unique and Russia is not Europe."
"The Eurasian concept is based on such values as the Orthodox Church
and the strength of the state," she said. "The state is much more
important than individuals."
'EU without democracy'
In terms of its structure, the Eurasian Union is modeled on the
European Union's political integration project, but without the
emphasis on democracy and human rights, according to Amanda Paul, an
expert on the Eurasian region at the in Brussels.
A handful of former Soviet republics, led by Russia, created the
Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or Eurasec) in 2000 to serve as the
motor of integration in the former Soviet space. The organization's
institutional structure is similar to the defunct European Economic
Community, the forerunner of the European Union. Eurasec has an
interstate council, a permanent committee, an inter-parliamentary
assembly and a court.
The interstate council consists of the Eurasec members' heads of state
and makes decisions by consensus, while the permanent committee
requires a two-thirds majority vote. Voting power in the committee is
based on financial contributions. Russia wields 40 votes while Belarus
and Kazakhstan each hold 20. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan possess 10
votes respectively.
Driven by realpolitik
According to Shevtsova, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko
opted to join because he "cannot go to Europe" due to his repressive
policies, and "he cannot survive by himself" because of the country's
economic problems. Meanwhile, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
hopes to use Russia to balance out China's economic influence in the
Central Asian country, she said.
Last September, Armenia turned down an association agreement with the
European Union, opting instead for the customs union with Belarus,
Russia and Kazakhstan. The Armenian deputy foreign minister, Shavarsh
Kocharian, has said that Yerevan will be ready to join the customs
union by mid-April.
Armenia has "chosen" to go along with Russia's plan
"They basically didn't have any option but to ditch their agreement
with the EU because of their reliance on Russia in many different
sectors, obviously including energy security, economics and trade,"
Paul said.
"In the shared neighborhood with the EU, none of the countries want to
join," she continued. "Russia is having to force them in there with
all the sticks and whips it's got."
'Pop-up war syndrome'
According to Shevtsova, Kyiv is the "crown jewel" in Russia's Eurasian
ambitions. A country of 45 million people, Ukraine has fertile
agricultural land, an industrial base and lies right on Central
Europe's doorstep.
"It was one of the key goals of Putin to get Ukraine into the orbit
because a Eurasian Union...without Ukraine would have a very strong
Asian face," she said.
But Moscow's intervention in Crimea could jeopardize the entire
integration project. Ukraine has been driven even further into the
West's arms by the de-facto Russian annexation of the Black Sea
peninsula. The EU could sign the political chapters of an association
agreement with Kyiv as early as March 20th.
Meanwhile, Belarus and Kazakhstan have failed to express strong public
support for Moscow's position in Ukraine. Putin's doctrine of
reserving the right to use military force to protect ethnic Russians
might have Minsk and Astana worried. Nearly a quarter of Kazakhstan's
population and eight percent of Belarus claim Russian ethnicity.
"If the Russians are allowed to get away with what they're doing in
Crimea it sets a precedent to repeat this sort of behavior elsewhere,"
Paul said. "Russia is creating a sort of pop-up war syndrome. It
doesn't like something so it creates a military confrontation."
http://www.dw.de/putins-power-play-jeopardizes-eurasian-union-plans/a-17493164
From: A. Papazian
March 15 2014
Putin's power play jeopardizes Eurasian Union plans
President Vladimir Putin aims to create an Eurasian Union where the
Soviet Union once reigned. But Moscow's intervention in Crimea could
make former Soviet republics think twice about deeper integration with
Russia.
During his annual address to the Russian parliament back in 2005,
President Putin publicly lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union,
calling it "a major geopolitical disaster of the century." The former
KGB man laid out his solution to this "disaster" in a 2011 newspaper
editorial, in which he called for the creation of an Eurasian Union.
"First, none of this entails any kind of revival of the Soviet Union,"
Putin wrote in the daily Izvestia. "It would be naïve to revive or
emulate something that has been consigned to history. But these times
call for a close integration based on new values and a new political
and economic foundation."
"We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming
one of the poles in the modern world and serving as an efficient
bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region," he
continued.
Neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan have signed up to join Russia in
this integration project. In 2010, the three ex-Soviet republics
formed a common customs union. Meanwhile, they have agreed to make the
Eurasian Economic Union a reality by January 1, 2015.
Close, but not too close?
"According to Putin, it has to be a political alliance, not only the
customs union, with supranational institutions that will be hosted by
Moscow and apparently dominated by Russia," Lilia Shevtsova, a Russia
expert with Carnegie Moscow, told DW.
'Anti-thesis to the West'
While Shevtsova described the Eurasian Union as Putin's "pet project,"
she said that the concept of Eurasianism as an ideology developed in
early 20th century Russia as an "antithesis to the West."
"The major principle of Eurasianism is that Russia has to be the pole
of a new civilization, which is situated on the huge Eurasian
territory that includes a European part and an Asian part," Shevtsova
said. "Russia is unique and Russia is not Europe."
"The Eurasian concept is based on such values as the Orthodox Church
and the strength of the state," she said. "The state is much more
important than individuals."
'EU without democracy'
In terms of its structure, the Eurasian Union is modeled on the
European Union's political integration project, but without the
emphasis on democracy and human rights, according to Amanda Paul, an
expert on the Eurasian region at the in Brussels.
A handful of former Soviet republics, led by Russia, created the
Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or Eurasec) in 2000 to serve as the
motor of integration in the former Soviet space. The organization's
institutional structure is similar to the defunct European Economic
Community, the forerunner of the European Union. Eurasec has an
interstate council, a permanent committee, an inter-parliamentary
assembly and a court.
The interstate council consists of the Eurasec members' heads of state
and makes decisions by consensus, while the permanent committee
requires a two-thirds majority vote. Voting power in the committee is
based on financial contributions. Russia wields 40 votes while Belarus
and Kazakhstan each hold 20. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan possess 10
votes respectively.
Driven by realpolitik
According to Shevtsova, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko
opted to join because he "cannot go to Europe" due to his repressive
policies, and "he cannot survive by himself" because of the country's
economic problems. Meanwhile, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
hopes to use Russia to balance out China's economic influence in the
Central Asian country, she said.
Last September, Armenia turned down an association agreement with the
European Union, opting instead for the customs union with Belarus,
Russia and Kazakhstan. The Armenian deputy foreign minister, Shavarsh
Kocharian, has said that Yerevan will be ready to join the customs
union by mid-April.
Armenia has "chosen" to go along with Russia's plan
"They basically didn't have any option but to ditch their agreement
with the EU because of their reliance on Russia in many different
sectors, obviously including energy security, economics and trade,"
Paul said.
"In the shared neighborhood with the EU, none of the countries want to
join," she continued. "Russia is having to force them in there with
all the sticks and whips it's got."
'Pop-up war syndrome'
According to Shevtsova, Kyiv is the "crown jewel" in Russia's Eurasian
ambitions. A country of 45 million people, Ukraine has fertile
agricultural land, an industrial base and lies right on Central
Europe's doorstep.
"It was one of the key goals of Putin to get Ukraine into the orbit
because a Eurasian Union...without Ukraine would have a very strong
Asian face," she said.
But Moscow's intervention in Crimea could jeopardize the entire
integration project. Ukraine has been driven even further into the
West's arms by the de-facto Russian annexation of the Black Sea
peninsula. The EU could sign the political chapters of an association
agreement with Kyiv as early as March 20th.
Meanwhile, Belarus and Kazakhstan have failed to express strong public
support for Moscow's position in Ukraine. Putin's doctrine of
reserving the right to use military force to protect ethnic Russians
might have Minsk and Astana worried. Nearly a quarter of Kazakhstan's
population and eight percent of Belarus claim Russian ethnicity.
"If the Russians are allowed to get away with what they're doing in
Crimea it sets a precedent to repeat this sort of behavior elsewhere,"
Paul said. "Russia is creating a sort of pop-up war syndrome. It
doesn't like something so it creates a military confrontation."
http://www.dw.de/putins-power-play-jeopardizes-eurasian-union-plans/a-17493164
From: A. Papazian