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RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT: THE CRIMEA WILL HARDLY BECOME A PRECEDENT FOR KARABAKH BECAUSE OF DIFFERENT WEIGHT CATEGORIES OF ARMENIA AND RUSSIA
by Ashot Safaryan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=D415C0F0-ADB8-11E3-AFB10EB7C0D21663
Monday, March 17, 12:45
The Crimea will hardly become a precedent for Karabakh because of
different weight categories of Armenia and Russia, Russian political
expert, Andrey Epifantsev, told Arminfo correspondent.
'Of course, the Crimea will become the temptation for the Karabakh
conflict settlement. The most important is that in the conditions of
the crisis of the world law system, when there are two equivalent but
polar principles - the right of the people for self-determination and
inviolability of borders, and in specific cases the countries adhere
to that of them which more convenient to them, Russia could cross the
line and cast gage to that part of the world community which in this
case chooses the inviolability of borders", - Epifantsev said.
He also added that however Moscow managed to do that chiefly because it
depends on these countries not so much cardinally, or this dependence
is mutual, or because it is at least for several years that Russia has
been conducting an independent policy and pretending at leadership as
one of the world centers of force. As for Armenia, here the situation
differs. Because of different reason, Armenia has been striving to be
complementary to different force centers. This means that it is very
much difficult for Armenia to make sharp steps, as it scares to damage
relations with any of them. If Moscow goes forward, Yerevan shamefully
stands apart and only hopes not to cause anger of its bigger partners.
'Certainly, we understand that the weight categories of Russia
and Armenia are different. However, Armenia could level its less
beneficial parts by closer cooperation with Russia within the frames
of the Customs Union and Eurasian Union. But here as well, the
policy of complementarity puts its certain limits. For this reason,
we have to confess that the Crimea will hardly become a precedent
for Karabakh. The unsettlement of the Karabakh conflict is a result
of the complementary policy conducted by Yerevan", - he said.
When predicting possible scenarios in confrontation of Russia and the
West after the referendum in the Crimea, the expert said there is not
specific information how far the West is ready to go in its aspiration
to "punish" Russia. According to the logic, the true sanctions are
hardly possible, as they will also damage the western countries
themselves. But as we know, in the crisis moments logic sometimes
disappears. For this reason, nothing must be ruled out, he said.
As for the Customs Union, he said that after the referendum in the
Crimea and the position taken by Russia, the elites of some countries
of the post-Soviet area will keep their ears open, as their countries
have got similar pain points as Ukraine had: absence of accord of
people, argument borders after the USSR split, different ideas for
the future, huge corruption, ruined state machinery, etc. "However,
all this is not directly linked with integration processes developed
by Russia. For many years Ukraine either did not take part in these
projects or its participation was too weak. All this resulted in
Ukraine's split. I am absolutely confident that if the post-Soviet
countries see an economic interest in the Russian integration projects,
if they feel Russia as one of the world leaders, the integration at
the post-Soviet area will go on developing irrespective of various
conflicts", - Epifantsev concluded.
by Ashot Safaryan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=D415C0F0-ADB8-11E3-AFB10EB7C0D21663
Monday, March 17, 12:45
The Crimea will hardly become a precedent for Karabakh because of
different weight categories of Armenia and Russia, Russian political
expert, Andrey Epifantsev, told Arminfo correspondent.
'Of course, the Crimea will become the temptation for the Karabakh
conflict settlement. The most important is that in the conditions of
the crisis of the world law system, when there are two equivalent but
polar principles - the right of the people for self-determination and
inviolability of borders, and in specific cases the countries adhere
to that of them which more convenient to them, Russia could cross the
line and cast gage to that part of the world community which in this
case chooses the inviolability of borders", - Epifantsev said.
He also added that however Moscow managed to do that chiefly because it
depends on these countries not so much cardinally, or this dependence
is mutual, or because it is at least for several years that Russia has
been conducting an independent policy and pretending at leadership as
one of the world centers of force. As for Armenia, here the situation
differs. Because of different reason, Armenia has been striving to be
complementary to different force centers. This means that it is very
much difficult for Armenia to make sharp steps, as it scares to damage
relations with any of them. If Moscow goes forward, Yerevan shamefully
stands apart and only hopes not to cause anger of its bigger partners.
'Certainly, we understand that the weight categories of Russia
and Armenia are different. However, Armenia could level its less
beneficial parts by closer cooperation with Russia within the frames
of the Customs Union and Eurasian Union. But here as well, the
policy of complementarity puts its certain limits. For this reason,
we have to confess that the Crimea will hardly become a precedent
for Karabakh. The unsettlement of the Karabakh conflict is a result
of the complementary policy conducted by Yerevan", - he said.
When predicting possible scenarios in confrontation of Russia and the
West after the referendum in the Crimea, the expert said there is not
specific information how far the West is ready to go in its aspiration
to "punish" Russia. According to the logic, the true sanctions are
hardly possible, as they will also damage the western countries
themselves. But as we know, in the crisis moments logic sometimes
disappears. For this reason, nothing must be ruled out, he said.
As for the Customs Union, he said that after the referendum in the
Crimea and the position taken by Russia, the elites of some countries
of the post-Soviet area will keep their ears open, as their countries
have got similar pain points as Ukraine had: absence of accord of
people, argument borders after the USSR split, different ideas for
the future, huge corruption, ruined state machinery, etc. "However,
all this is not directly linked with integration processes developed
by Russia. For many years Ukraine either did not take part in these
projects or its participation was too weak. All this resulted in
Ukraine's split. I am absolutely confident that if the post-Soviet
countries see an economic interest in the Russian integration projects,
if they feel Russia as one of the world leaders, the integration at
the post-Soviet area will go on developing irrespective of various
conflicts", - Epifantsev concluded.