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CRIMEA VOTES TO JOIN RUSSIA: ARMENIA OBSERVES 'SILENTLY' NEW REALITIES EMERGE IN POST-SOVIET NEIGHBORHOOD
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/52730/armenia_crimea_referendum_vote_russia
ANALYSIS | 17.03.14 | 10:37
Photolure
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
In the past several weeks official Yerevan has been mum about the
recent events in Ukraine, including both the formation of a new
government after the ouster of elected president Viktor Yanukovych
and the referendum held in the breakaway pro-Russian republic of
Crimea to join Russia.
Despite the fact that Russia is Armenia's top strategic and military
ally and soon will also become the top economic partner when Yerevan
finalizes its membership in the Moscow-led Customs Union later
this year, the Armenian government preferred to wait and see how
developments in the neighboring region unfold, limiting itself to
only calls for a peaceful resolution of the situation.
Meanwhile, Crimea's de facto secession from Ukraine will certainly
become a factor that Armenia will have to reckon with in its future
foreign policies both in the context of relations with Russia and the
West as well as in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at
the heart of which there is also the problem of 'territorial integrity
v self-determination'.
More than 95 percent of the people who came to polling stations in
Crimea on Sunday voted for the region's becoming part of the Russian
Federation. Official Kiev has not recognized the legitimacy of the
vote, neither have the United States or the European Union.
The West has threatened to introduce sanctions against Russia if Moscow
"annexes" Crimea. Talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the
phone, U.S. President Barack Obama emphasized that Moscow's actions
in Crimea violated Ukraine's sovereignty. At the same time, he said
that there was still a possibility for a diplomatic solution, which,
however, required an end to what in Washington they see as a Russian
armed incursion into Crimea.
Moscow, however, insists that the Crimean referendum has been in
keeping with international law and fully reflects the desire of
the local population to see them as part of Russia. The Union of
Armenians of Russia also voiced its support for "the expression
of will" by the Crimean people (a majority of Crimea's population
2 million-strong population are Russians, with ethnic minorities
including Ukrainians and Tatars; ethnic Armenians make half percent
of the Crimean population).
Analysts in Russia and abroad currently try to estimate how damaging
Western sanctions will prove for Russia and eventually its political
and economic allies. There is already speculation about possible
sanctions against key figures of the Russian state economy. Heads
of the largest Russian companies, Rosneft and Gazprom, Igor Sechin
and Alexei Miller, thus face visa-related and financial sanctions,
writes the Russian daily "Kommersant".
The U.S. has also hinted at the possibility of opening up its oil
reserves, which can significantly reduce the price of oil and natural
gas and eventually Russia's standing on the international market. A
week ago Washington released the first 5 million barrels of oil,
which immediately affected Russian stock indexes and the exchange
rate of the Russian ruble.
Still, judging by media publications, many in the West are less
reluctant to accept what they view as annexation of Crimea, and the
matter today concerns only the eastern regions of Ukraine where Russia
may also provoke separatist sentiments. The international community
is also concerned about an actual clash between the Russian and
Ukrainian military and about how the division of Ukraine will affect
other nations.
Meanwhile, other unrecognized or partly recognized countries have
also been reacting to the processes in Ukraine and the referendum on
the status of Crimea in particular. Abkhazia's President Alexander
Ankvab said: "This nationwide solution is based not only on the
historical past, but also on the modern political realities. And
this is a classic example of when the will of the people is above
all. Abkhazia respects the will of the Crimean people, supports and
recognizes its crucial choice."
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have so far refrained from making any
assessment of the situation in Ukraine, including in Crimea. Although
officially Armenian authorities have not expressed their support for
the post-Yanukovych government in Ukraine, they did not expressly state
their support for the preparations for the referendum in Crimea either.
At present, analysts wonder which country or part of it will
be next that Russia will want to 'save'. Some believe it may be
Nagorno-Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/52730/armenia_crimea_referendum_vote_russia
ANALYSIS | 17.03.14 | 10:37
Photolure
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
In the past several weeks official Yerevan has been mum about the
recent events in Ukraine, including both the formation of a new
government after the ouster of elected president Viktor Yanukovych
and the referendum held in the breakaway pro-Russian republic of
Crimea to join Russia.
Despite the fact that Russia is Armenia's top strategic and military
ally and soon will also become the top economic partner when Yerevan
finalizes its membership in the Moscow-led Customs Union later
this year, the Armenian government preferred to wait and see how
developments in the neighboring region unfold, limiting itself to
only calls for a peaceful resolution of the situation.
Meanwhile, Crimea's de facto secession from Ukraine will certainly
become a factor that Armenia will have to reckon with in its future
foreign policies both in the context of relations with Russia and the
West as well as in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at
the heart of which there is also the problem of 'territorial integrity
v self-determination'.
More than 95 percent of the people who came to polling stations in
Crimea on Sunday voted for the region's becoming part of the Russian
Federation. Official Kiev has not recognized the legitimacy of the
vote, neither have the United States or the European Union.
The West has threatened to introduce sanctions against Russia if Moscow
"annexes" Crimea. Talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the
phone, U.S. President Barack Obama emphasized that Moscow's actions
in Crimea violated Ukraine's sovereignty. At the same time, he said
that there was still a possibility for a diplomatic solution, which,
however, required an end to what in Washington they see as a Russian
armed incursion into Crimea.
Moscow, however, insists that the Crimean referendum has been in
keeping with international law and fully reflects the desire of
the local population to see them as part of Russia. The Union of
Armenians of Russia also voiced its support for "the expression
of will" by the Crimean people (a majority of Crimea's population
2 million-strong population are Russians, with ethnic minorities
including Ukrainians and Tatars; ethnic Armenians make half percent
of the Crimean population).
Analysts in Russia and abroad currently try to estimate how damaging
Western sanctions will prove for Russia and eventually its political
and economic allies. There is already speculation about possible
sanctions against key figures of the Russian state economy. Heads
of the largest Russian companies, Rosneft and Gazprom, Igor Sechin
and Alexei Miller, thus face visa-related and financial sanctions,
writes the Russian daily "Kommersant".
The U.S. has also hinted at the possibility of opening up its oil
reserves, which can significantly reduce the price of oil and natural
gas and eventually Russia's standing on the international market. A
week ago Washington released the first 5 million barrels of oil,
which immediately affected Russian stock indexes and the exchange
rate of the Russian ruble.
Still, judging by media publications, many in the West are less
reluctant to accept what they view as annexation of Crimea, and the
matter today concerns only the eastern regions of Ukraine where Russia
may also provoke separatist sentiments. The international community
is also concerned about an actual clash between the Russian and
Ukrainian military and about how the division of Ukraine will affect
other nations.
Meanwhile, other unrecognized or partly recognized countries have
also been reacting to the processes in Ukraine and the referendum on
the status of Crimea in particular. Abkhazia's President Alexander
Ankvab said: "This nationwide solution is based not only on the
historical past, but also on the modern political realities. And
this is a classic example of when the will of the people is above
all. Abkhazia respects the will of the Crimean people, supports and
recognizes its crucial choice."
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have so far refrained from making any
assessment of the situation in Ukraine, including in Crimea. Although
officially Armenian authorities have not expressed their support for
the post-Yanukovych government in Ukraine, they did not expressly state
their support for the preparations for the referendum in Crimea either.
At present, analysts wonder which country or part of it will
be next that Russia will want to 'save'. Some believe it may be
Nagorno-Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian