Tweet
Al-Jazeera, Qatar
March 23 2014
Syria: Ceasefire now
An old saying in Aleppo goes: 'If you think you understand Arab
politics, that means someone hasn't explained it well.'
by Vartan Oskanian, a member of Armenia's National Assembly, a former
foreign minister and the founder of Yerevan's Civilitas Foundation.
In November 1998, during an official visit to Damascus, I met
President Hafez al-Assad. And in 2006, again on an official visit
there, I met his son, President Bashar al-Assad. The difference
between the two men was palpable.
Al- Assad, the father, was the quintessential symbol of stability and
status quo, the bedrock upon which rested the whole of the Arab
struggle for a Palestinian state and their resistance to the West's
"imperial designs". Those high ideals were enough to justify the
brutal suppression of dissent and opposition.
The son espoused the transition to a moderate, open and free Syrian
society. Those ideals were so desirable that many gave him the benefit
of the doubt, remained patient and forgiving so that he could
"overcome the old guard resistance" that he inherited.
Anatomy of a revolution
This is what I took away from my meetings with those two men and the
people I talked to during those two visits.
This month is the third year that the first shots of the Syrian
rebellion emerged in the remote town of Daraa, near the Jordanian
border. Since then it has spread to all possible corners of the
country leaving behind death, total destruction and mayhem. There are
countless injured, 150,000 dead, 10 times that many refugees, and
millions more displaced and hopeless.
The question on everyone's mind is: Is there an end to this nightmare?
To answer that question, one needs to look into the anatomy of this
conflict. Are the causes of its eruption still relevant, who were the
main players and who are they now, what are the interests still in
conflict, and what needs to be done to move forward?
Three factors have contributed to the formation and eruption of the
conflict in Syria.
First, there was the overall spirit and atmosphere of the Arab Spring.
Syria could not have avoided the wave that began in Tunisia in
December 2010.
Second, there was the deep-seated resentment and disenchantment among
the overwhelmingly majority in the country. Forty years of
tight-fisted authoritarian rule by a small minority had left deep
scars and any opportunity for a transition, even at a high cost,
clearly would have been seized in earnest. Such an attempt was made in
the early 1980s in the city of Hama and was brutally suppressed by
Hafiz al-Assad with minimum international outrage.
Third, was the coincidence of the interests of the major global and
regional powers with the goal of regime change in Syria. The axis
comprising Iran, Hezbollah, Syria as well as the Iraqi Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki was increasingly becoming a major national security
concern, for the United States and its Western allies, also to Israel,
Turkey and the Gulf states, primary among them, Saudi Arabia.
Arab Spring gone sour
Three years forward, none of those conditions are the same. On the
contrary. The arousing and spiriting scent of the Arab Spring has not
only dissipated but also turned sour and bitter for all who
experienced the uproar and euphoria. From Tunisia to Egypt, the
populace has still to feel a change in their living standards and
level of safety, freedom and emancipation.
Two is, if given a choice today in Syria between immediate security,
peace and stability with Assad at the helm and a protracted conflict
with an unknown future, even if assured a no-Assad outcome, even the
most disenchanted Sunnis would probably go with Assad.
Finally and most importantly, there is a change in the way the global
and regional powers are assessing the situation globally, regionally
and domestically. To begin with they had miscalculated the speed and
ease with which al- Assad regime would fall. The regime's, Russia's
and Iran's (together with Hezbollah's) resolve proved to be far
superior to that of the West's half-hearted support and ill-designed
policies.
Furthermore, the penetration and proliferation of violent extremist
organisations within Syria is now being viewed as more threatening to
Western interests than al- Assad regime. Finally, Iran's turnabout on
its nuclear issue and the emerging hopes for an acceptable outcome for
all tamed anti-Iran emotions and sentiments, somehow diluting the
danger of so-called Shia dominance in the region.
Arab politics for beginners?
As I was growing up in my hometown Aleppo, we had a saying which best
captured the complexities of Middle Eastern politics and societies. If
you think you understand Arab politics, that means someone hasn't
explained it well. The situation in Syria today with a variety of
dimensions in interplay, mostly overlapping and often deflecting,
makes that adage an understatement.
>From Day one of the Syrian conflict, three possible scenarios for its
eventual outcome were floated and discussed. An outright win for al-
Assad regime; an overwhelming victory for the rebels; a weakened Assad
regime, where a negotiated arrangement for a transitional government
leading to final regime change, would be possible.
The viability of any of these scenarios alternated throughout the past
three years depending on the circumstances on the ground and beyond.
Right after the December 2011 bombing of the intelligence agency
compounds in the heart of Damascus killing 44 people in the first
suicide attack since the uprising began, the fall of the regime seemed
only a matter of time. Prior to the Geneva talks, the impression was
that a negotiated outcome would be possible.
Today, after the capture of Yabroud, it seems the balance has firmly
anchored toward the regime. This oscillation could go on and on.
The Syrian people have suffered enough. It is time that those
countries that hold the Syrian people hostage to their own interests
acknowledge their failures, stop their intervention and let the Syrian
people determine their own future.
1200
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/syria-hostage-foreign-interests-201431975224632870.html
From: A. Papazian
March 23 2014
Syria: Ceasefire now
An old saying in Aleppo goes: 'If you think you understand Arab
politics, that means someone hasn't explained it well.'
by Vartan Oskanian, a member of Armenia's National Assembly, a former
foreign minister and the founder of Yerevan's Civilitas Foundation.
In November 1998, during an official visit to Damascus, I met
President Hafez al-Assad. And in 2006, again on an official visit
there, I met his son, President Bashar al-Assad. The difference
between the two men was palpable.
Al- Assad, the father, was the quintessential symbol of stability and
status quo, the bedrock upon which rested the whole of the Arab
struggle for a Palestinian state and their resistance to the West's
"imperial designs". Those high ideals were enough to justify the
brutal suppression of dissent and opposition.
The son espoused the transition to a moderate, open and free Syrian
society. Those ideals were so desirable that many gave him the benefit
of the doubt, remained patient and forgiving so that he could
"overcome the old guard resistance" that he inherited.
Anatomy of a revolution
This is what I took away from my meetings with those two men and the
people I talked to during those two visits.
This month is the third year that the first shots of the Syrian
rebellion emerged in the remote town of Daraa, near the Jordanian
border. Since then it has spread to all possible corners of the
country leaving behind death, total destruction and mayhem. There are
countless injured, 150,000 dead, 10 times that many refugees, and
millions more displaced and hopeless.
The question on everyone's mind is: Is there an end to this nightmare?
To answer that question, one needs to look into the anatomy of this
conflict. Are the causes of its eruption still relevant, who were the
main players and who are they now, what are the interests still in
conflict, and what needs to be done to move forward?
Three factors have contributed to the formation and eruption of the
conflict in Syria.
First, there was the overall spirit and atmosphere of the Arab Spring.
Syria could not have avoided the wave that began in Tunisia in
December 2010.
Second, there was the deep-seated resentment and disenchantment among
the overwhelmingly majority in the country. Forty years of
tight-fisted authoritarian rule by a small minority had left deep
scars and any opportunity for a transition, even at a high cost,
clearly would have been seized in earnest. Such an attempt was made in
the early 1980s in the city of Hama and was brutally suppressed by
Hafiz al-Assad with minimum international outrage.
Third, was the coincidence of the interests of the major global and
regional powers with the goal of regime change in Syria. The axis
comprising Iran, Hezbollah, Syria as well as the Iraqi Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki was increasingly becoming a major national security
concern, for the United States and its Western allies, also to Israel,
Turkey and the Gulf states, primary among them, Saudi Arabia.
Arab Spring gone sour
Three years forward, none of those conditions are the same. On the
contrary. The arousing and spiriting scent of the Arab Spring has not
only dissipated but also turned sour and bitter for all who
experienced the uproar and euphoria. From Tunisia to Egypt, the
populace has still to feel a change in their living standards and
level of safety, freedom and emancipation.
Two is, if given a choice today in Syria between immediate security,
peace and stability with Assad at the helm and a protracted conflict
with an unknown future, even if assured a no-Assad outcome, even the
most disenchanted Sunnis would probably go with Assad.
Finally and most importantly, there is a change in the way the global
and regional powers are assessing the situation globally, regionally
and domestically. To begin with they had miscalculated the speed and
ease with which al- Assad regime would fall. The regime's, Russia's
and Iran's (together with Hezbollah's) resolve proved to be far
superior to that of the West's half-hearted support and ill-designed
policies.
Furthermore, the penetration and proliferation of violent extremist
organisations within Syria is now being viewed as more threatening to
Western interests than al- Assad regime. Finally, Iran's turnabout on
its nuclear issue and the emerging hopes for an acceptable outcome for
all tamed anti-Iran emotions and sentiments, somehow diluting the
danger of so-called Shia dominance in the region.
Arab politics for beginners?
As I was growing up in my hometown Aleppo, we had a saying which best
captured the complexities of Middle Eastern politics and societies. If
you think you understand Arab politics, that means someone hasn't
explained it well. The situation in Syria today with a variety of
dimensions in interplay, mostly overlapping and often deflecting,
makes that adage an understatement.
>From Day one of the Syrian conflict, three possible scenarios for its
eventual outcome were floated and discussed. An outright win for al-
Assad regime; an overwhelming victory for the rebels; a weakened Assad
regime, where a negotiated arrangement for a transitional government
leading to final regime change, would be possible.
The viability of any of these scenarios alternated throughout the past
three years depending on the circumstances on the ground and beyond.
Right after the December 2011 bombing of the intelligence agency
compounds in the heart of Damascus killing 44 people in the first
suicide attack since the uprising began, the fall of the regime seemed
only a matter of time. Prior to the Geneva talks, the impression was
that a negotiated outcome would be possible.
Today, after the capture of Yabroud, it seems the balance has firmly
anchored toward the regime. This oscillation could go on and on.
The Syrian people have suffered enough. It is time that those
countries that hold the Syrian people hostage to their own interests
acknowledge their failures, stop their intervention and let the Syrian
people determine their own future.
1200
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/syria-hostage-foreign-interests-201431975224632870.html
From: A. Papazian