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CAN UKRAINIAN PROTESTS SPREAD THROUGHOUT SOUTH CAUCASUS?
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 26 2014
26 March 2014 - 2:51pm
The success of the Ukrainian protests has become a dream for
oppositionists all over the world. However, they seem to neglect
the fact that such coups can only happen to weak governments. The
weakness of President Victor Yanukovych is doubtless. His actions were
not decisive or elaborate: the first crackdown by the Berkut special
police units on December 1 only made matters worse and provoked
complaints about violence against the population.
Yanukovych failed to use any moment of peace to settle the conflict
or to remove all radical elements before their numbers grew. The
president was hesitating and wasting time, while his opponents were
getting stronger every day. Eventually, he shamefully had to flee
the country from people he could have stopped by giving just one order.
Not all countries are run by Yanukovych. Russia only strengthened its
influence. However, there have been many rumours about analogues to
the Ukrainian protests about to hit Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Azerbaijan has increased its economic indexes five-fold in the
past decade. The government fights corruption and focuses on social
development in all sectors. Azerbaijani has neither the forces nor
influence to organize anything similar to the Euromaidan. Moreover,
Azerbaijan has been dynamically developing, while Ukraine was under a
schism of two revolutions. People in Azerbaijan have no reasons to go
onto the streets and protest. Azerbaijan has its own foreign policy,
it lives in ethnic harmony and comparing President Ilham Aliyev with
Yanukovych is simply impossible.
Georgia went through a transition of power 1.5 years ago without
any Euromaidans. It had democratic elections followed by legitimate
reforms. The inability of the new government to improve the situation
in the country can certainly augment protests. The Georgian Dream
coalition may lose power, but the chances of the United National
Movement taking its power back are very unlikely.
Armenia is the most likely South Caucasus country to see a Maidan. It
suffers from economic isolation, unemployment, departure of population,
monopolization of business by functionaries, pension and insurance
reforms. Political uncertainty, where President Serzh Sargsyan has not
named his successor yet, only adds to the grave situation. Micromaidan
protests happen in Yerevan every day and have no force to transform
into mass protests.
The West is pretty much indifferent to the events in Armenia, as long
as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains frozen. The conflict halts
development of the region and allows large geopolitical players to
keep their roles of senior partners. Their positions may change after
the events in Crimea.
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 26 2014
26 March 2014 - 2:51pm
The success of the Ukrainian protests has become a dream for
oppositionists all over the world. However, they seem to neglect
the fact that such coups can only happen to weak governments. The
weakness of President Victor Yanukovych is doubtless. His actions were
not decisive or elaborate: the first crackdown by the Berkut special
police units on December 1 only made matters worse and provoked
complaints about violence against the population.
Yanukovych failed to use any moment of peace to settle the conflict
or to remove all radical elements before their numbers grew. The
president was hesitating and wasting time, while his opponents were
getting stronger every day. Eventually, he shamefully had to flee
the country from people he could have stopped by giving just one order.
Not all countries are run by Yanukovych. Russia only strengthened its
influence. However, there have been many rumours about analogues to
the Ukrainian protests about to hit Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Azerbaijan has increased its economic indexes five-fold in the
past decade. The government fights corruption and focuses on social
development in all sectors. Azerbaijani has neither the forces nor
influence to organize anything similar to the Euromaidan. Moreover,
Azerbaijan has been dynamically developing, while Ukraine was under a
schism of two revolutions. People in Azerbaijan have no reasons to go
onto the streets and protest. Azerbaijan has its own foreign policy,
it lives in ethnic harmony and comparing President Ilham Aliyev with
Yanukovych is simply impossible.
Georgia went through a transition of power 1.5 years ago without
any Euromaidans. It had democratic elections followed by legitimate
reforms. The inability of the new government to improve the situation
in the country can certainly augment protests. The Georgian Dream
coalition may lose power, but the chances of the United National
Movement taking its power back are very unlikely.
Armenia is the most likely South Caucasus country to see a Maidan. It
suffers from economic isolation, unemployment, departure of population,
monopolization of business by functionaries, pension and insurance
reforms. Political uncertainty, where President Serzh Sargsyan has not
named his successor yet, only adds to the grave situation. Micromaidan
protests happen in Yerevan every day and have no force to transform
into mass protests.
The West is pretty much indifferent to the events in Armenia, as long
as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains frozen. The conflict halts
development of the region and allows large geopolitical players to
keep their roles of senior partners. Their positions may change after
the events in Crimea.