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ASKAR AKAYEV: "REGIONAL INTEGRATION WILL TAKE CIS COUNTRIES TO THE WORLD LEVEL"
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 28 2014
28 March 2014 - 11:05am
By Vestnik Kavkaza
Academic Askar Akayev was the leader of Kyrgyzstan for 15 years,
fleeing the country after the so-called Tulip Revolution of 2005.
After just 9 years, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych shared
his fate. Moving from Kyrgyzstan, Akayev continued his science
research, becoming the head of a science group at the Moscow State
University's Prigozhin Institute of Mathematical Studies of Complex
Systems. He works on forecasts of economic development, including
crisis forecasts. This is why Vestnik Kavkaza has not only talked
about the situation in the post-Soviet space with Askar Akayev, but
asked about the scientist's opinion about the Russian economy as well.
- Askar Akayevich, what is your forecast for development of the
Russian economy, especially after the annexation of Crimea?
- Russia has all the resources for dynamic development: natural
and most importantly human resources. Russians are well-educated,
there is a tremendous human potential, outstanding Russian science, so
Russia has all the conditions, all chances for a more dynamic economic
progress. I believe that Russian economy should develop at a rate of
7-8% be cause the world, with account of even undeveloped countries,
including African states, is moving at a rate of 3% a year. The whole
world, including the rapidly developing economies of China and India.
The whole! China, India are developing at a rate of 8-9%, while
Russian economy should and can develop at a rate of 7-8%. But in
order to achieve that, it needs a new industrial policy, a strong,
efficient industrial policy.
- How would you evaluate the prospects of integration on the
post-Soviet space?
- There is no alternative to integration today because globalization
is going all over the world. One of the patterns of globalization
is regional integration. We see that all Europe is integrating and
they want other countries in their orbit. Now, for instance, they are
struggling to get Moldova, Georgia and other countries in their orbit.
This is why Russia and Russian neighbours, post-Soviet republics,
have no other choice than to closely integration on the economic,
political, all aspects. Only strong regional integration will bring
Russia and CIS states to world-level development.
- What future of the Customs Union, Eurasian Union can you see after
the events in Ukraine?
- I am confident that the Customs Union will develop regardless of
what happens in Ukraine. Of course, it is very important for Ukraine
to join the Customs Union because the Ukrainian economy would gain a
new course. It is in a catastrophic state at the moment. The Ukrainian
economy is alien for Europe. European economy is not integrating that
of Ukraine, it will repulse it as an alien element. Regarding further
steps, I see that firm Eurasian integration is possible on the basis of
the Customs Union in the future, a firm Eurasian Union will be formed.
- What are the prospects for cooperating with South Caucasus states?
- Things are certainly a lot more complicated with South Caucasus
states. Though we see that Armenia is joining the Customs Union,
Armenia has its own special path. Concerning Georgia, Azerbaijan, they
probably have their own vector of development. I see no opportunities
for them to be in the Eurasian integration orbit.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/economy/53252.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 28 2014
28 March 2014 - 11:05am
By Vestnik Kavkaza
Academic Askar Akayev was the leader of Kyrgyzstan for 15 years,
fleeing the country after the so-called Tulip Revolution of 2005.
After just 9 years, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych shared
his fate. Moving from Kyrgyzstan, Akayev continued his science
research, becoming the head of a science group at the Moscow State
University's Prigozhin Institute of Mathematical Studies of Complex
Systems. He works on forecasts of economic development, including
crisis forecasts. This is why Vestnik Kavkaza has not only talked
about the situation in the post-Soviet space with Askar Akayev, but
asked about the scientist's opinion about the Russian economy as well.
- Askar Akayevich, what is your forecast for development of the
Russian economy, especially after the annexation of Crimea?
- Russia has all the resources for dynamic development: natural
and most importantly human resources. Russians are well-educated,
there is a tremendous human potential, outstanding Russian science, so
Russia has all the conditions, all chances for a more dynamic economic
progress. I believe that Russian economy should develop at a rate of
7-8% be cause the world, with account of even undeveloped countries,
including African states, is moving at a rate of 3% a year. The whole
world, including the rapidly developing economies of China and India.
The whole! China, India are developing at a rate of 8-9%, while
Russian economy should and can develop at a rate of 7-8%. But in
order to achieve that, it needs a new industrial policy, a strong,
efficient industrial policy.
- How would you evaluate the prospects of integration on the
post-Soviet space?
- There is no alternative to integration today because globalization
is going all over the world. One of the patterns of globalization
is regional integration. We see that all Europe is integrating and
they want other countries in their orbit. Now, for instance, they are
struggling to get Moldova, Georgia and other countries in their orbit.
This is why Russia and Russian neighbours, post-Soviet republics,
have no other choice than to closely integration on the economic,
political, all aspects. Only strong regional integration will bring
Russia and CIS states to world-level development.
- What future of the Customs Union, Eurasian Union can you see after
the events in Ukraine?
- I am confident that the Customs Union will develop regardless of
what happens in Ukraine. Of course, it is very important for Ukraine
to join the Customs Union because the Ukrainian economy would gain a
new course. It is in a catastrophic state at the moment. The Ukrainian
economy is alien for Europe. European economy is not integrating that
of Ukraine, it will repulse it as an alien element. Regarding further
steps, I see that firm Eurasian integration is possible on the basis of
the Customs Union in the future, a firm Eurasian Union will be formed.
- What are the prospects for cooperating with South Caucasus states?
- Things are certainly a lot more complicated with South Caucasus
states. Though we see that Armenia is joining the Customs Union,
Armenia has its own special path. Concerning Georgia, Azerbaijan, they
probably have their own vector of development. I see no opportunities
for them to be in the Eurasian integration orbit.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/economy/53252.html