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  • Suleiman Shah and Turkey's Election Invasion of Syria: Wag the Dog T

    Center for Research on Globalization, Canada
    March 30 2014


    Suleiman Shah and Turkey's Election Invasion of Syria: Wag the Dog
    Turkish-Style or Something More?

    By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

    The Turkish opponents of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his
    beleaguered government have claimed that a distressed Erdogan may try
    to start a conflict with Syria and even invade Syrian territory. The
    Republic People's Party (CHP) and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of
    the CHP, have even warned the Turkish military not to attack Syria.
    According to the CHP and Erdogan's other opponents, the aim of a
    Turkish invasion of Syria by Erdogan is to invoke patriotic sentiments
    domestically. The aim of a conflict with Syria is to manipulate the
    Turkish population for electoral reasons, they have warned...

    Turkey is slated to hold municipal elections on March 30, 2014. Prime
    Minister Erdogan's declining Justice and Development Party (AKP) is
    nervous about the Turkish municipal elections. The AK Party is afraid
    that it will perform badly.

    A series of events have taken place which have given credence to the
    arguments and accusations against the AKP leadership. The first starts
    with Ankara's claims that it was concerned about a historic relic
    inside Syrian territory known as the Tomb of Suleiman Shah. As a
    result of the purported and questionable threats by the Syrian
    anti-government forces against the Tomb of Suleiman Shah, Turkey
    authorized its troops on March 16, 2014 to enter Syrian territory to
    protect the historic site.

    The historic figure's crypt is located inside Syrian territory. On the
    basis of an agreement signed by France and the Grand National Assembly
    of Turkey in 1921, before Syria became an independent republic (and
    the Ottoman Empire was officially dissolved), Suleiman Shah's grave is
    considered Turkish territory. Turkish troops have been stationed there
    as guards since that time to protect the historic site.

    Following Ankara's proclamation that it would defend the Tomb of
    Suleiman Shah, Turkey downed a Syrian military jet on March 23, 2014.
    The downing of the Syrian jet signaled the escalation of tension
    between the AKP government and the Syrian government. That, however,
    was interrupted by a shattering political scandal tied to YouTube.

    The conversations of Turkish officials discussing how to manufacture a
    pretext to invade Syria were leaked through YouTube on March 27, 2014.
    The YouTube videos are analogous to the Ukraine regime change leak of
    the US State Department's Assistant-Secretary Victoria Nuland. The
    Turkish leaked conversations also fit into the patterns of an internal
    struggle inside Turkey under which the conversations of Erdogan and
    Turkish officials had been leaked earlier.

    The Downing of a Syrian Aircraft by Turkey

    If the claims of Erdogan's Turkish opponents are factual, what do they
    disclose about the shooting of a Syrian military jet by the Turkish
    military in late-March 2014? Ankara originally claimed that the Syrian
    aircraft had violated its airspace alongside another Syrian warplane
    that reversed course after Turkish jets were scrambled. The Turkish
    government also alleged that it gave four warnings to the Syrian
    military jet before shooting it down, but the Syrian government
    responded by saying that Ankara was categorically lying and that the
    Syrian jet was on a combat mission inside Syrian airspace over the
    Latakia District.

    The General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces released a statement
    about the incident near the Syrian-Turkish border. The Turkish
    military statement is an omission of guilt that supports what the
    Syrians have said. Putting a shadow of doubt on Ankara's claims that
    its airspace was violated, the Turkish military affirmed that the
    Syrian warplane crashed 1.2 kilometres inside Syrian territory. The
    statement of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces says that
    the Syrian aircraft went down at

    The geography of Kasab is important. It is a predominately-Armenian
    northern town near the Turkish border that is situated in the
    Governate of Latakia and its constituent Latakia District. Although
    Latakia Governate is mostly known for being the Syrian province with a
    high concentration of Alawites, it has a diverse population and its
    northern part is inhabited by many Christian Armenians. Towns like
    Esguran and Karadash are populated by ethnic Armenian. Kasab is also a
    name to remember; it will be mentioned again by other sources. The
    reports around the Syrian town paint the picture of some type of
    Turkish operation in the area and new push to open a new front in
    Syria or to reinforce the northern front.

    It is also worth noting what the British-based Syrian Observatory for
    Human Rights has said about the downing of the Syrian jet by Turkey.
    The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is no friend of the Syrian
    government. It has supported regime change in Syria and has been
    caught fabricating vast amounts of information about the Syrian
    conflict just to promote the anti-government militias and ideas
    promoting regime change in Damascus. Despite its anti-government
    position, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also contradicts the
    AKP government's claims about downing the Syrian jet for violating
    Turkish airspace. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human
    Rights has stated that the Turkish military while
    the Syrian military plane was engaged in an attack on the
    anti-government insurgents.

    Regardless of the facts, Prime Minister Erdogan and his government
    have gone out of their way, in their characteristic wind-baggery, to
    threaten a against the Syrians. Days after the Syrian
    aircraft was shot down by the Turkish military, Ankara also started a
    rhetorical campaign to portray a picture of itself as a victim that
    was only reacting to provocation. The AKP government claimed that (1)
    Turkish warplanes were scrambled previously to prevent a Syrian
    aircraft from violating Turkish airspace and (2) that the Syrian
    military had been continuously harassing Turkish military jets
    patrolling their own Turkish airspace by intimidation through putting
    a radar lock on the Turks for targeting or firing purposes. Two points
    should be clarified about the latter Turkish grievance about the radar
    lock: it has no legal bearing nor does it signal any aggression
    against Turkey by the Syrians. Unlike frequency jamming, locking onto
    a target with a radar tracking system is not an act of aggression or a
    violation of sovereignty.

    Ankara's grievance was purely rhetorical and contrary to the facts
    about defensive military procedures. The units that are the target of
    any radar lock may become aware they are being monitored by a
    defensive tracking system that could fire on it, but this is not an
    offensive move. The radar locking is a clearly a defensive stance on
    the part of Damascus which the Syrians and any other country have the
    right to do.

    What Syrian units were doing with the Turkish jets is a clear
    indicator that Syria does not trust the Turkish government whatsoever.
    The Syrian military monitors Turkish warplanes inside Turkish airspace
    as a security precaution. The reasons for this are that the Syrians
    believe that Turkish warplanes could violate Syrian airspace or
    conduct some type of mission against Syria at any given moment.

    A Turkish Offensive in the Governate of Latakia?

    Focus must turn to the Tomb of Suleiman Shah now. Away from Latakia
    Governate and the Mediterranean coast, this mausoleum is located in
    the northern part of the Aleppo Governate of Syria. Before the downing
    of the Syrian military jet, Prime Minister' Erdogan's AKP government
    had repeatedly said that it was worried about the safety of the
    historic crypt.

    Suleiman Shah was a Central Asian tribal chieftain from Merv, which is
    located in modern-day Turkmenistan. What makes him significant is that
    he was the grandfather of Osman I, the founder of the Ottoman Empire.
    This is why Suleiman's tomb has historical importance to Turkish
    history and to Turks.

    Despite the three years of fighting, the Turkish-guarded historic site
    was never threatened by either the government or insurgent camps
    inside Syria. Ankara, however, begun claimed that it was afraid that
    its own insurgent allies in Syria would attack the historic site. Thus
    an alarm was sounded by the AKP about the safety of the mausoleum.
    Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu even held a conference from
    Van to address his government's concerns about the relic's safety.

    Foreign Minister Davutoglu, however, went beyond the airing of
    concerns from Turkish authorities. Davutoglu vowed that Turkey would
    retaliate without the slightest hesitation to any attack on the Tomb
    of Suleiman Shah. He also clarified that Turkey had made preparations
    to intervene if the site or the Turkish guard unit stationed there
    should come under any form of attack. Vatan, a Turkish newspaper,
    quickly outlined that what Davutoglu meant was that Turkey was
    preparing to send troops across the Syrian border into Aleppo.

    Threats in the form of a video against the historic site in Aleppo
    Governate were uploaded on YouTube days later. In the uploaded video
    the anti-government insurgents fighting in Syria warned the Turkish
    government that Ankara had a few days to surrender the historic site
    or that they would alternatively destroy it. The AKP used this to
    support its newest pretext for intervention into Syria. The video was
    uploaded on March 21, 2014.

    In the same timeframe as the downing of the Syrian military jet, it
    was also reported by Turkish sources with varying degrees of emphasis
    that the Turkish Armed Forces had sent military ground units into the
    Syrian town of Kasab and its environs. Some sources said that the
    Turkish units were illegally escorting anti-government insurgents into
    Syrian territory, that wounded insurgents were also being taken back
    to Turkish military field hospitals (similar to the ones that Tel Aviv
    has setup in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights for the insurgents),
    and that the Turkish military was getting involved in expanding the
    combat zone in Syria.

    Erdogan and the Turkish government were clearly planning something
    alongside the entire Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey has militarily
    helped the insurgents in their armed offensive on Kasab and Latakia
    District against the Syrian military. The downing of the Syrian
    aircraft was part of the Turkish support for this operation against
    Syria. The anti-government forces inside Syria would claim that they
    captured and secured government-controlled town of Kasab during this
    time period too.

    In the United States, the Armenian Bar Association would send a letter
    of distress to the US government on March 25, 2014. The group would
    demand that the Obama Administration condemn the Turkish military
    incursion into Kasab. Members of the Armenian community would blast
    Turkey as being legally responsible for the violence in Syria and for
    the hardships and deaths of ethnic Armenians in Kasab and the
    Governate of Latakia.

    Leak Wars: Erdogan, Davutoglu Caught Red Handed like Nuland, Catherine Ashton?

    Bombshell revelations were made shortly after. Leaked conversations
    between Turkish officials about their plans in Syria were released.
    The leaks were made through two YouTube videos that were uploaded on
    March 27, 2014. One video was a little over seven minutes long, while
    the other was about nine minutes long.

    Before this, Prime Minister Erdogan had been facing a steady stream of
    leaks exposing his government's backdoor dealings and activities.
    Erdogan and AKP officials have blamed the Gulenists, an influential
    international movement run by a US-based Turkish preacher, for the
    previous leaks. Although the latest leaks could possibly be part of
    the internal conflict between Erdogan and the Gulenists inside Turkey,
    they could also be the work of a foreign intelligence agency.

    Leaks of US and European Union officials have proven the increasing
    efficiency that divulging the secret conversations of governments has
    on exposing the underlying agendas of Washington and its cohorts. The
    leak of US Assistant-Secretary Victoria Nuland and US diplomat
    Geoffrey Pyatt illustrated how the goal of Washington in Ukraine had
    been regime change in Kiev and installing Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the
    prime minister of Ukraine. A later leak involving Catherine Ashton
    being told by Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet that the head
    doctor for the Euromaidan protesters expressed views that Yatsenyuk
    and lead opposition politicians could have been involved with the
    killing of civilians also put into serious question the narrative
    being peddled by the US, Canada, and the European Union about the
    protests in Kiev.

    The Turkish leaks illustrate that Turkish authorities have been
    planning on manufacturing an incident with Syria. The basis for this
    could have and could be political motivations aimed at securing an AKP
    victory in the Turkish municipal elections being held at the end of
    March. The leaks revealed that, during a conversation, Foreign
    Minister Davutoglu tells Hakan Fidan, the chief of the Turkish
    National Intelligence Organization (MIT), that an attack could help
    them.

    Ahmet Davutoglu says, the Davutoglu is positing the use of an
    incident at the historical mausoleum as a pretext for a Turkish
    incursion into Syria. It remains to be seen if he was talking about
    the upcoming municipal elections strictly or if he could have been
    talking about the insurgent's military offensive in northern Syria or
    even something else.

    Hakan Fidan's response, however, goes further. The MIT boss responds
    to Davutoglu with the following proposal:

    Suleiman Shah's Tomb: Where Ottoman History's Start is Where Neo-Ottomanism Ends

    The reaction of the Turkish government to the leaks was quick. AKP
    authorities have said that the leaks are manipulated to paint the
    dialogue in a malicious way to undermine their government and Turkey.
    The AKP has called the leaks a serious threat to Turkish national
    security. As a result the Turkish government quickly blocked all
    YouTube use and access inside Turkey. This was done so that the
    Turkish population could not get access to the leaked conversations.

    Several things needed to be analyzed and reflected on. The timing of
    the leaks, released only days before the March municipal elections in
    Turkey, is worth reflecting on. So are the assertions by the AKP that
    there is a conspiracy to topple the Turkish government.

    Regardless, the unraveling events bring new life to the
    failures of Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu.
    Their visions of Turkey as an imperialist power have crumbled and the
    final nails are being hammered into its coffin. Some would argue that
    their neo-Ottomanism was really the whole time.
    The two and the AKP have been slowly digging their own political
    graves through their Syria policy.

    In a case of historical irony, Turkish history may in conceptual terms
    start at the Tomb of Suleiman Shah whereas Recep Tayyip Erdogan's
    seems like it may start its ending there. There is a lot of grumbling
    in the lower ranks of the AKP about Erdogan. He has lost a lot of
    popularity, even among AKP loyalists. The municipal elections are a
    litmus test for Prime Minister Erdogan and his AK Party. If the AKP
    does badly, Erdogan and his close associates will face an internal
    revolt in the AKP. This is why the municipal elections are so
    important for them and why it is unfathomable that they would create a
    new crisis with Syria for the sake of protecting their political
    careers.

    A Response to the Events in Ukraine?

    This entire scandal is more than a Turkish-style case of The consequences are unpredictable and could lead to escalation.
    They also come at a time where there is a US and NATO buildup on the
    western borders of Russia and Belarus in Eastern Europe and the Black
    Sea.

    The Eurasian chessboard is in motion. The events in Syria and Turkey
    should not be viewed in a vacuum from other events in the broader
    world as if they are unrelated to one another. The pieces are moving
    on the geopolitical chessboard. Some type of confrontation between
    Turkey and Syria could very well be an answer to the events in Ukraine
    and Crimean reunification with Russia. In other words, a Turkish
    conflict with Syria may not merely be a ploy to help the AK Party
    during the March 2014 elections alone.

    Additionally, the leaks further expose the involvement of the Turkish
    government in supporting the insurgency in Syria. Whatever remaining
    doubts that members of the AKP grassroots had that the AKP leadership
    is not corrupt, should go flying out the door. AKP leaders are not the
    pious Muslims they portray themselves as, they are conniving
    businessmen and liars that hide behind faith.

    Deputy Chief of Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Lieutenant-General
    Yasar Guler is also part of the leaked conversation between Davutoglu
    and Hakan Fidan. Lieutenant-General Guler describes that what was
    being discussed between the Turkish officials was the ignition of a
    war between Turkey and Syria. In context of what was being discussed,
    he recommends during the conversation that Turkey increase its combat
    support for the insurgents inside Syria by making additional
    deliveries of weapons and ammunition to their fighters.

    Before these leaks, in January 2014, a scandal was caused when Turkish
    law enforcement personnel stopped an undercover MIT truck heading to
    Syria secretly. The MIT truck was filled with weapons for the
    insurgent fighters killing civilians and trying to topple the Syrian
    government. An embarrassed AKP claimed that "supplies" were merely
    being delivered to Syrian Turkmen and then refused to say anything
    more citing national security for the secrecy.

    As a result of the increasing global public cognizance about the
    nefarious role of the Turkish government in destabilizing Syria,
    Turkey's own collaborators and allies have been publicly distancing
    themselves from Prime Minister Erdogan and the AKP slowly -- at least
    in part. Ankara should take note: there are now reports with unnamed
    officials from places allied to Turkey that are washing their hands
    clean of the actions of Turkey -- making it sound like Turkey has been
    a maverick supporting Al-Qaeda with no US or NATO involvement. These
    same people will not hesitate to abandon Turkey after it does their
    dirty work in the Black Sea or Middle East for them.

    The original article was published by the Moscow-based Strategic
    Culture Foundation (SCF).

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/suleiman-shah-and-turkeys-election-invasion-of-syria-wag-the-dog-turkish-style-or-something-more/5375855

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