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RUSSIA'S CRIMEA MOVE COULD REIGNITE KARABAKH CONFLICT: ANALYSTS
Agence France Presse
May 6, 2014 Tuesday 3:23 PM GMT
BAKU, May 06 2014
Russia's annexation of Crimea could reignite an unresolved dispute
between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorny Karabakh region two
decades after a deadly war, analysts say.
Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized Nagorny Karabakh from
Azerbaijan in a 1990s conflict that claimed some 30,000 lives.
The two sides agreed a temporary ceasefire in the bitter dispute in
1994, but Baku still claims the region, and international attempts
to resolve the conflict have proved fruitless.
Experts fear Moscow's takeover of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine
-- which has led to the worst standoff between Russia and the West
since the Cold War -- may give fresh impetus to the simmering conflict.
"There's no doubt that the events in Ukraine, the rising tensions
between the West and Russia, and the return to a Cold War-type
mentality will affect the Karabakh conflict's settlement," said Tatul
Hakobyan, an independent analyst in Yerevan.
Exchanges of gunfire are still frequent between the armies of Armenia
and energy-rich Azerbaijan -- whose defence spending exceeds its
rival's entire national budget. Baku has repeatedly vowed to retake
the region militarily.
Moscow ally Armenia openly supported Russia's actions in Ukraine,
which independent Armenian analyst Manvel Sarkisian said could bolster
its Karabakh claims.
"When Armenia supported Crimea's joining Russia, it effectively
supported the principle of nations' self-determination," which it
applies to Karabakh, he said.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan fears that an emboldened Kremlin may step up
the pressure with threats to recognise Karabakh's independence.
"Crimea's occupation by Russia created a dangerous precedent and
Azerbaijan watches this with fear," said Elkhan Shahinoglu, an
independent analyst with the Baku-based Atlas thinktank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin "has cited nations' right for
self-determination to justify the occupation of Crimea. Under the very
same pretext, Moscow could blackmail Baku with threats to recognise
Karabakh," Shahinoglu said.
"One can't rule out that after Ukraine, Azerbaijan will be Russia's
next target."
- Conflict risk 'high' -
Since the May 5, 1994, ceasefire, no tangible progress has been
achieved at negotiations mediated by France, Russia and the United
States, the so-called Minsk Group, under the umbrella of the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Analysts in both countries agree it would not take much to kindle a
new conflict.
"International mediators' efforts have proved fruitless and the risk
of a fresh armed conflict remains high," Shahinoglu said.
In justifying their positions, Baku and Yerevan appeal to two somewhat
conflicting norms of international law.
While Azerbaijan cites the principle of territorial integrity of
states, Armenia insists the right of self-determination of peoples
provided a legal basis for the ethnic-Armenian majority to proclaim
Karabakh's secession from Azerbaijan in 1991.
"Events in Crimea show that post-Soviet states' borders are
disputable," Sarkisian said.
"Russia opted to prioritise the principle of nations'
self-determination over the principle of territorial integrity
of states.
"The move will undoubtedly have some consequences for Karabakh."
The Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 ushered in a period of political
turmoil and separatist conflicts in many newly independent states.
Analysts said the Kremlin was inciting conflicts between and within
the ex-Soviet republics to maintain influence over its former vassals
and prevent them from forging closer ties with the West.
"Russia wants to reassert its dominance in the post-Soviet space and
sponsors separatist conflicts there," said independent Azerbaijani
analyst Rasim Musabekov.
"Karabakh is occupied by Armenia, but it's no secret that Russia is
behind the scenes."
eg-mkh-im/am/cc-gd
From: A. Papazian
Agence France Presse
May 6, 2014 Tuesday 3:23 PM GMT
BAKU, May 06 2014
Russia's annexation of Crimea could reignite an unresolved dispute
between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorny Karabakh region two
decades after a deadly war, analysts say.
Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized Nagorny Karabakh from
Azerbaijan in a 1990s conflict that claimed some 30,000 lives.
The two sides agreed a temporary ceasefire in the bitter dispute in
1994, but Baku still claims the region, and international attempts
to resolve the conflict have proved fruitless.
Experts fear Moscow's takeover of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine
-- which has led to the worst standoff between Russia and the West
since the Cold War -- may give fresh impetus to the simmering conflict.
"There's no doubt that the events in Ukraine, the rising tensions
between the West and Russia, and the return to a Cold War-type
mentality will affect the Karabakh conflict's settlement," said Tatul
Hakobyan, an independent analyst in Yerevan.
Exchanges of gunfire are still frequent between the armies of Armenia
and energy-rich Azerbaijan -- whose defence spending exceeds its
rival's entire national budget. Baku has repeatedly vowed to retake
the region militarily.
Moscow ally Armenia openly supported Russia's actions in Ukraine,
which independent Armenian analyst Manvel Sarkisian said could bolster
its Karabakh claims.
"When Armenia supported Crimea's joining Russia, it effectively
supported the principle of nations' self-determination," which it
applies to Karabakh, he said.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan fears that an emboldened Kremlin may step up
the pressure with threats to recognise Karabakh's independence.
"Crimea's occupation by Russia created a dangerous precedent and
Azerbaijan watches this with fear," said Elkhan Shahinoglu, an
independent analyst with the Baku-based Atlas thinktank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin "has cited nations' right for
self-determination to justify the occupation of Crimea. Under the very
same pretext, Moscow could blackmail Baku with threats to recognise
Karabakh," Shahinoglu said.
"One can't rule out that after Ukraine, Azerbaijan will be Russia's
next target."
- Conflict risk 'high' -
Since the May 5, 1994, ceasefire, no tangible progress has been
achieved at negotiations mediated by France, Russia and the United
States, the so-called Minsk Group, under the umbrella of the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Analysts in both countries agree it would not take much to kindle a
new conflict.
"International mediators' efforts have proved fruitless and the risk
of a fresh armed conflict remains high," Shahinoglu said.
In justifying their positions, Baku and Yerevan appeal to two somewhat
conflicting norms of international law.
While Azerbaijan cites the principle of territorial integrity of
states, Armenia insists the right of self-determination of peoples
provided a legal basis for the ethnic-Armenian majority to proclaim
Karabakh's secession from Azerbaijan in 1991.
"Events in Crimea show that post-Soviet states' borders are
disputable," Sarkisian said.
"Russia opted to prioritise the principle of nations'
self-determination over the principle of territorial integrity
of states.
"The move will undoubtedly have some consequences for Karabakh."
The Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 ushered in a period of political
turmoil and separatist conflicts in many newly independent states.
Analysts said the Kremlin was inciting conflicts between and within
the ex-Soviet republics to maintain influence over its former vassals
and prevent them from forging closer ties with the West.
"Russia wants to reassert its dominance in the post-Soviet space and
sponsors separatist conflicts there," said independent Azerbaijani
analyst Rasim Musabekov.
"Karabakh is occupied by Armenia, but it's no secret that Russia is
behind the scenes."
eg-mkh-im/am/cc-gd
From: A. Papazian