Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Maidan And Armenian Political Perspectives

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Maidan And Armenian Political Perspectives

    MAIDAN AND ARMENIAN POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES

    TransConflict
    May 8 2014

    May 8, 2014 8:44 am
    By Edgar Khachatryan

    Armenia has gone from negotiating an Association Agreement with
    the EU to expressing a desire to join the Customs Union of Belarus,
    Kazakhstan and Russia; a decision that threatens to fundamentally
    undermine the country's reform prospects, particularly following
    recent developments in Ukraine.

    "Those who think there will be another Maidan in Armenia may have
    such a Maidan in their own backyard", stated Galust Sahakyan, leader
    of the governing Republican Faction of the Armenian National Assembly,
    suggesting Armenian opposition parties should not be too excited about
    events taking place elsewhere. In order to understand how Ukrainian
    developments are viewed in Armenia, we first need to understand the
    political situation of a country that shared over seventy years of
    Soviet history, but which has currently chosen a different political
    path to Ukraine.

    Not so long ago when negotiating an Association Agreement with the
    EU, Yerevan officials used to speak from high platforms about their
    commitment to signing the Agreement at any cost. The enthusiasm and
    convincing speeches of the Armenian authorities suddenly disappeared
    on September 3rd 2013 during a meeting with Vladimir Putin, when
    president Serzh Sargsyan suddenly announced Armenia's "overwhelming
    desire" to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.

    Nobody in Armenia could understand precisely whose wish Sargsyan
    expressed during the meeting, since neither political nor public
    discussions had been held in Armenia on the subject.

    Whilst people searched for an answer, the authorities immediately
    put their "independent and impartial" media into action to help
    people understand the situation better and orientate themselves
    "easily". For days and nights the media kept reminding people about
    the advantages of having a powerful strategic partner in the region,
    about Russia's role and importance in resisting military aggression
    from Azerbaijan and Turkey, and about Armenia's happy and "fat" years
    in the Soviet Union. These beautiful images were occasionally followed
    by scenes of citizens on Maidan expressing their dissatisfaction with
    the Ukrainian authorities.

    The footage, mainly made up from scenes broadcast by Russian channels,
    exclusively showed clashes between activists and 'Berkut' troops, and
    the daunting number of police and civilians injured as a result. The
    videos aired on TV were followed by interviews with analysts, political
    scientists and politicians who were diligently trying to prove that
    Armenia is not Ukraine, and that we Armenians cannot allow bloodshed
    in our country, a country that has already seen so many tragedies.

    As events in Ukraine unfolded, Russia increased its activities in
    Armenia, aimed to promote the interests of its "brother-country"
    in more and more visible ways. Russia reduced by 30% the price of
    natural gas for Armenia (a prices difference that is not, however,
    passed on to the consumer). According to the authorities, the gas
    price has been constantly changing since 2011; however, consumer
    prices in Armenia have been $180 per 1000 m3 over this period. As
    a result, a debt of $300m accumulated over two years; half of which
    Russia promised to pay, whereas the other half is supposed to be paid
    by Armenia. During negotiations on the issue, the Armenian government
    sold the remaining 20% of shares in gas company HayRusGazard to Russia
    in order to pay the debt.

    The gas deal concerned not only the gas price, but also stated that:

    The Armenian party guarantees that until December 31, 2043, the rights
    and interests of Gazprom OJSC, HayRusgazard CJSC and their respective
    successors arising out of or in connection with the Agreement are
    not subject to change, amendment, withdrawal or reduction without
    Russia's consent as of the date of signing the agreement.

    The Armenian party guarantees that until December 31, 2043 no laws,
    decisions, decrees or other legal acts will be changed, cancelled or
    in any way violate the legal rights and interests of Gazprom OJSC,
    HayRusgazard CJSC and their respective successors as of the date of
    signing the agreement.

    In reality, the gas deal conceals a different kind of agreement between
    Armenia and Russia: up to December 2043, Russia ensures unrestricted
    falsified elections and impunity towards such exercises.

    That is to say, Russia ensures that it will not allow changes of
    power in Armenia until December 2043, as this would contradict
    Russian interests. Thus it appears that, in order to protect its
    own interests, Putin's regime protects the position and interests of
    Armenia's ruling elite.

    At the Forum of Russian Compatriots in Yerevan, Russian ambassador to
    Armenia Ivan Volinkin announced that Russia will halt any attempts at
    "aggressive intervention of other countries in the domestic affairs
    of its friendly states in an effort to instill ideas alien to our
    mind and soul". In other words, Moscow simply declares its rights to
    intervene in Armenia's internal affairs, or announces that any coup
    attempts in Armenia "initiated" or supported by a third country will
    be crushed by Russia.

    Crimea

    The reaction from the majority of Armenian citizens to developments
    in the Autonomous Region of Crimea is of particular interest. The
    announcement of a referendum on Crimea's status aroused strong
    feelings of empathy among Armenians towards the ethnic Russian
    population of the autonomous region. It was clear that the phrase
    "right to self-determination", formulated by the Russians and
    repeated by the Armenian propaganda machine, could not leave
    people in Armenia indifferent. There is hardly any Armenian who
    would argue with or question the importance and predominance of the
    principle of self-determination. Since the Armenian viewpoint on the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is that the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh
    also have the right to self-determination, immediately Crimea was
    referred to as a "Russian Karabakh". The stream of articles produced
    about illegal and violent activities by extremists and Bandera-adepts
    against the Russian population in Crimea stirred more and more
    compassion among Armenians towards a people who, as most would see it,
    were now "sharing the bitter fate of the Armenians".

    During the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
    plenary session on Crimea, the Armenian delegation voted against
    the resolution that called for sanctions against Russia. "If the
    point is that territorial integrity should prevail while the right
    to self-determination will rely only on the consent of the central
    authorities, then, in this case, regardless of whether our relations
    with Russia are friendly or not, our position is clear and it is
    in our national and state interests", commented David Harutyunyan,
    Head of Armenian Delegation to PACE. The few civil society groups in
    Armenia that considered Russia's actions towards Crimea as annexation
    that should not go unpunished were once more labelled traitors and
    secret agents prepared by the West, trying to undermine the foundation
    of the Armenian state with their actions.

    Russia's role in Armenia

    According to David Shahnazaryan, head of the "Concord" Center
    and former head of the National Security Ministry, the Armenian
    authorities, parliament (with the exception of some MPs), analysts,
    certain civil groups, criminal elements and oligarchs all together
    make up a system that is fully-governed by the Kremlin, and this
    system is actually responsible for the current situation in Armenia,
    with little possibility for change. "The Armenian government is formed
    in Russia. Armenian foreign policy is shaped in Russia. The Republic's
    security system is formed in Russia. This is accepted by everyone",
    says Mr. Shahnazaryan.

    Russia is always seen as a protector of Armenia. So, what do we gain
    from the Russian military presence that is so valued by many? From
    the point of view of security, the gain may be more psychological
    than practical. Many think that the presence of Russian troops
    is a restrictive, preventive factor for Turkey or Azerbaijan. It
    may guarantee security from possible attack, since attacks on a
    Collective Security Treaty Organization [1] member would be viewed
    as an attack on Russia. For Russia, meanwhile, this is a warrant to
    restore its former dominant position in the South Caucasus. Thus, the
    kind of policy Russia is implementing towards Armenia (for instance,
    when it continues to selling arms to Azerbaijan, or when it uses and
    will continue to use Armenia as a tool to destabilize the region when
    necessary), is almost not being discussed.

    Economy

    Today, many objects of great significance and strategic importance for
    Armenia are under Russian control: HayRusgazard, Electric Networks of
    Armenia, Hrazdan Thermal Power Plant, Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant,
    the Armenian Railways, telephone company Armente etc. It is important
    to understand that Russia has enormous leverage to influence both
    the internal and external policies of Armenia and make it even more
    dependent on Russia. The relations between Russia and Armenia are
    similar to a "forced friendship", with the potential to turn into
    a lord-vassal relationship at any moment; and the characterization
    "strategic alliance" may lose its relevance at any time. After the
    Ukrainian events, it should be clear to everyone what the combined
    authorities of Putin and Sargsyan are capable of in case there is an
    attempt of a power change in Armenia.

    Touching upon the current political discourse in Armenia, it must be
    noted that Maidan and the Ukrainian developments are presented as an
    anti-Russian processes initiated by Western countries. This is the
    sign of an old conflict between Russia (the Soviet Union) and the
    West, and this is the reason why the Armenian society is forced to
    view anyone with a different mentality as an enemy. Armenian society
    considers joining the Customs Union in order to join Russia's efforts
    to resist Western pressure and aggression. Armenia is promised a number
    of benefits if it joins the Customs Union: solutions to unemployment,
    custom free import of goods from Customs Union countries; upgraded
    roads and railways, and even economic stabilization of Nagorno
    Karabakh.

    It seems that nobody in Armenia is able to critically analyze the
    situation and to ask very logical questions, such as how Russia will
    develop Armenia's economy if all the Russian economy is based on its
    energy resources? In fact Russia has few other industries except for
    the arms industry. There is hardly any other sphere that Russia can
    develop in Armenia, because all other spheres of great importance are
    already under Russian control. There has been no public discussion
    that would raise questions such as whether Armenia imports anything
    from Belarus or Kazakhstan, or what is the percentage of imports from
    Russia compared with imports from other countries? It seems nobody
    really asks such questions.

    Georgia

    For some unknown reasons, many Armenians believe that Russia or
    integration in the Customs Union will take Armenia out of the blockade,
    and will open its roads and railways. It is unclear how Russia will do
    that if the closest neighbour of Armenia is Georgia, with whom Russia
    has almost no affairs. Armenia and Russia do not have common borders,
    thus any communication will be interrelated with Armenia's neighbouring
    countries. In addition, Georgia chose to join the Association Agreement
    with the EU, so very soon the custom policies and legislations will be
    incompatible. This fact creates even more obstacles and challenges for
    Armenia's collaboration and cooperation with its closest neighbours.

    How can Russia take Armenia out of the blockade if one of the reasons
    for such a blockade is Russia and its relations with Armenia's
    neighbours? Armenia's railway to Russia is blocked because, besides
    going through Georgia, the railway passes through Abkhazia. With the
    issue over Abkhazia unsolved, the promise of railway development is
    unrealistic. It seems like a political mockery that a country involved
    in the Minsk group process as an independent mediator helping the
    Nagorno Karabakh conflict parties solve the issue in a peaceful way
    promises economic development for Nagorno Karabakh in case Armenia
    joins the Customs Union.

    Armenians do not pay attention to the fact how the human rights
    issues will be solved in the Customs Union. If one looks at any
    human rights-related report, it is clear that Russia and Belarus
    are in the lowest positions in terms of human rights protection,
    freedom of speech, freedom of religion, etc. And now Armenia has
    chosen to join these countries. Only a small number of people are
    interested what will happen as a result of a so called "friendship"
    and realize that this risks the existence of civil society and the
    participation of citizens in the decision-making processes.

    Thus, in case Armenia joins the Customs Union it makes no sense to
    even talk about democracy in Armenia. Unfortunately, the Armenian
    government and - through propaganda - now also Armenian society seems
    to be ready to pay with its sovereignty, freedom and democratic values
    for some promises of pseudo-economic development and security. This
    is the nearest future of Armenia in case there is no protest from
    broader segments of society. Unfortunately these painful realities are
    hidden behind romantic memories of Soviet Union, and, unfortunately,
    the younger generation is mainly indifferent towards such romantic
    memories. The only hope that there will be a change in Armenia is
    that it will come with the new generation, who hopefully have the
    potential and desire.

    Edgar Khachatryan is the director of Peace Dialogue, a member of
    the Global Coalition for Conflict Transformation. He specializes in
    international peacebuilding trainings, consultancy and expertise
    in gender and peace processes, violence prevention, and post-war
    stabilization and recovery.

    Footnotes

    1) In 1992, six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth
    of Independent States--Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
    Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan--signed the Collective Security Treaty.

    Three other post- Soviet states--Azerbaijan, Belarus,
    and Georgia--signed the next year and the treaty took effect in
    1994. Five years later, six of the nine--all but Azerbaijan, Georgia,
    and Uzbekistan--agreed to renew the treaty for five more years, and
    in 2002 those six formally agreed to create the Collective Security
    Treaty Organization as a military alliance.

    http://www.transconflict.com/2014/05/maidan-armenian-political-perspectives-085/

Working...
X