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ZONE BROUGHT AT EDGE OF WAR
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Monday, 12 May 2014, 15:43
The government agency called the ministry of foreign affairs of the
'zone' has announced through its most popular functionary Shavarsh
Kocharyan that there is nothing new in the speech of the U.S. co-chair
of the Minsk Group.
Had the MFA of the 'zone' confessed that there is something new in
this statement, the head of this agency Edward Nalbandyan should
have been tried in a demonstrative trial for the failure of foreign
policy, as well as high treason. Had there been 'nothing new' in this
statement, the minister of defense Seiran Ohanyan would not make an
urgent statement in reaction to this nightmare.
The administration of the 'disputable territories' also hurried to
react. Hence, those reacted who are responsible for blood or, in
other words, war. Edward Nalbandyan is not responsible for blood. He
is not responsible for anything at all.
The political leadership of the 'zone' understood at once that
inflating a discussion on the report would illustrate the complete
foreign political failure and the absurd in which the 'zone' has
appeared. The 'zone' was led by hand from the safest situation in
its history into a disaster.
The global system of security with the supremacy of the United
States conducted a policy of 'dual containment' of Turkey and
Russia in which the 'zone' acquired great importance. However, this
situation determined the perspective of loss of power and altogether
a significant public status of the current elite and those serving it.
It was impossible. Hence, the 'zone' has been led to the edge beyond
which is a new war.
J. Warlick's report is a conceptually worded challenge to Russia's
system in the South Caucasus and beyond where Russia is trying
to establish its political dominance. The United States has never
announced about the possibility of war as something inevitable in the
South Caucasus, which indicates a revision of its regional policy. The
United States has made it clear that its policy aimed at stability in
the South Caucasus cannot have the same expression because it plays on
support to the positions of the direct opponents of the United States.
While these opponents played 'moderate games', the American policy
remains the same but now it has lost every meaning. The United
States will not make efforts and political expenditure to contain
war in the region. From now on the United States is interested in
confrontation and escalation in the Black Sea and Caucasian region as
an important factor of influence and intensification of a creative
regional geopolitical game. Among scenarios which were narrated in
Lragir.am's publications, this scenario or scenarios were put forth,
and therefore this situation is not something new but the situation has
changed cardinally, and it is time to remember about previous warnings.
What will intensification of confrontations in the Black Sea-Caucasian
region mean to the interests of the United States?
First of all, Russia's geopolitical isolation is intensifying. In
addition to this, not only Russia is concerned but the entire
Russian military, political and economic system over a vast space is
concerned. All the elements of this system will encounter pressure
and mandatory choice at best. Apparently, our 'zone' will have no
right and opportunity to choose.
Nobody cares about the choice by the 'zone'. The 'zone' has become an
element of the system, and its interests will not be taken into account
in any way and anywhere. The United States is interested in complete
elimination of the 'zone' as it is a hindrance to implementation of
its interests and interests of its partners and allies.
Immediately after 'September 3' the Americans could offer the 'zone'
only one way that has no alternatives - normalization with Turkey
and Azerbaijan. They communicated this to the 'zone' substantially
and specifically, using different channels and means. J. Warlick's
report is part of this initiative which was put forth last fall only
at the level of experts.
The 'zone' was let understand that normalization with Turkey and
Azerbaijan and territorial concessions are the only way of keeping
relative sovereignty and save the 'zone' as an ethnic hotbed.
The irony is in that improvement of relations between the United States
and Turkey is not so strategic, not to say temporary. In other words,
the concessions of the 'zone' may be considered in a short-term policy,
whereas in terms of perspectives the United States does not claim
responsibility and does not express interest in the new configuration
in this direction.
At the same time, the containment policy of the United States on Turkey
and Azerbaijan in terms of security of the 'zone' was determined by
the factor of the 'zone', not the factor of Russia which the United
States viewed as one of the multiple factors of containment of Turkish
expansion in the region. As a result of occurrence of a new situation
the 'zone' has lost the political support of the Western community,
first of all the United States and NATO in terms of its security.
The 'zone' was not within NATO's responsibility and did not have
similar formal duties on behalf of the United States but it had full
political support which is not little, and had stepped on the way to
a more serious stage of integration with NATO and supply of arms from
member states of the alliance. Now everything has been lost, and the
west has finally figured out this obscure problem called the 'zone'.
The 'zone' has appeared in the role of direct opponent of the United
States and NATO, and one may expect repetition of the Yugoslavian
scenario.
Having appeared in such a lamentable state of international isolation,
the 'zone' has become Russia's finger puppet which will never and
under no conditions hold a biased position in a future conflict,
and the CSTO is a dummy as it is unable to agree on simply political
issues. The CSTO is a hangout of lost and confused presidents of
'zones' in Putin's anteroom in a narrow circle of solitude.
However, everything will not be limited to one 'zone'. One of the
strategic goals of the West is intensification of confrontation
between Turkey and Russia, and therefore all the political hindrances
on this track will be removed while, at the same time, factors
for confrontation will be created. In this respect the shift of
responsibility by the West for the 'zone' is more than obvious.
The plans are obvious, and they already suppose military defeat of
the 'zone' in the war with Azerbaijan, already with Turkey's support,
and demonstration of military and political inconsistency of Russia
and CSTO. It would be an important and effective lever of collapse
of the Russian system.
Of course, Russia will try to give the 'disputable territories'
to Azerbaijan and strengthen its own foothold, and at the same time
normalize its relations with Turkey but it will not be allowed to,
and the 'disputable territories' will be given to Azerbaijan but not
as part of the Russian plan.
At present, the zonal society is confused as much as its government but
still denies that this is the only way to save from great delusions in
the result of repetition of history. The zonal propaganda keeps its
tail between its legs and is trying to pretend that nothing special
has happened. War is awaiting us, whether a propagandist or a deserter,
the essence does not change.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32418#sthash.yL2feSM5.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Monday, 12 May 2014, 15:43
The government agency called the ministry of foreign affairs of the
'zone' has announced through its most popular functionary Shavarsh
Kocharyan that there is nothing new in the speech of the U.S. co-chair
of the Minsk Group.
Had the MFA of the 'zone' confessed that there is something new in
this statement, the head of this agency Edward Nalbandyan should
have been tried in a demonstrative trial for the failure of foreign
policy, as well as high treason. Had there been 'nothing new' in this
statement, the minister of defense Seiran Ohanyan would not make an
urgent statement in reaction to this nightmare.
The administration of the 'disputable territories' also hurried to
react. Hence, those reacted who are responsible for blood or, in
other words, war. Edward Nalbandyan is not responsible for blood. He
is not responsible for anything at all.
The political leadership of the 'zone' understood at once that
inflating a discussion on the report would illustrate the complete
foreign political failure and the absurd in which the 'zone' has
appeared. The 'zone' was led by hand from the safest situation in
its history into a disaster.
The global system of security with the supremacy of the United
States conducted a policy of 'dual containment' of Turkey and
Russia in which the 'zone' acquired great importance. However, this
situation determined the perspective of loss of power and altogether
a significant public status of the current elite and those serving it.
It was impossible. Hence, the 'zone' has been led to the edge beyond
which is a new war.
J. Warlick's report is a conceptually worded challenge to Russia's
system in the South Caucasus and beyond where Russia is trying
to establish its political dominance. The United States has never
announced about the possibility of war as something inevitable in the
South Caucasus, which indicates a revision of its regional policy. The
United States has made it clear that its policy aimed at stability in
the South Caucasus cannot have the same expression because it plays on
support to the positions of the direct opponents of the United States.
While these opponents played 'moderate games', the American policy
remains the same but now it has lost every meaning. The United
States will not make efforts and political expenditure to contain
war in the region. From now on the United States is interested in
confrontation and escalation in the Black Sea and Caucasian region as
an important factor of influence and intensification of a creative
regional geopolitical game. Among scenarios which were narrated in
Lragir.am's publications, this scenario or scenarios were put forth,
and therefore this situation is not something new but the situation has
changed cardinally, and it is time to remember about previous warnings.
What will intensification of confrontations in the Black Sea-Caucasian
region mean to the interests of the United States?
First of all, Russia's geopolitical isolation is intensifying. In
addition to this, not only Russia is concerned but the entire
Russian military, political and economic system over a vast space is
concerned. All the elements of this system will encounter pressure
and mandatory choice at best. Apparently, our 'zone' will have no
right and opportunity to choose.
Nobody cares about the choice by the 'zone'. The 'zone' has become an
element of the system, and its interests will not be taken into account
in any way and anywhere. The United States is interested in complete
elimination of the 'zone' as it is a hindrance to implementation of
its interests and interests of its partners and allies.
Immediately after 'September 3' the Americans could offer the 'zone'
only one way that has no alternatives - normalization with Turkey
and Azerbaijan. They communicated this to the 'zone' substantially
and specifically, using different channels and means. J. Warlick's
report is part of this initiative which was put forth last fall only
at the level of experts.
The 'zone' was let understand that normalization with Turkey and
Azerbaijan and territorial concessions are the only way of keeping
relative sovereignty and save the 'zone' as an ethnic hotbed.
The irony is in that improvement of relations between the United States
and Turkey is not so strategic, not to say temporary. In other words,
the concessions of the 'zone' may be considered in a short-term policy,
whereas in terms of perspectives the United States does not claim
responsibility and does not express interest in the new configuration
in this direction.
At the same time, the containment policy of the United States on Turkey
and Azerbaijan in terms of security of the 'zone' was determined by
the factor of the 'zone', not the factor of Russia which the United
States viewed as one of the multiple factors of containment of Turkish
expansion in the region. As a result of occurrence of a new situation
the 'zone' has lost the political support of the Western community,
first of all the United States and NATO in terms of its security.
The 'zone' was not within NATO's responsibility and did not have
similar formal duties on behalf of the United States but it had full
political support which is not little, and had stepped on the way to
a more serious stage of integration with NATO and supply of arms from
member states of the alliance. Now everything has been lost, and the
west has finally figured out this obscure problem called the 'zone'.
The 'zone' has appeared in the role of direct opponent of the United
States and NATO, and one may expect repetition of the Yugoslavian
scenario.
Having appeared in such a lamentable state of international isolation,
the 'zone' has become Russia's finger puppet which will never and
under no conditions hold a biased position in a future conflict,
and the CSTO is a dummy as it is unable to agree on simply political
issues. The CSTO is a hangout of lost and confused presidents of
'zones' in Putin's anteroom in a narrow circle of solitude.
However, everything will not be limited to one 'zone'. One of the
strategic goals of the West is intensification of confrontation
between Turkey and Russia, and therefore all the political hindrances
on this track will be removed while, at the same time, factors
for confrontation will be created. In this respect the shift of
responsibility by the West for the 'zone' is more than obvious.
The plans are obvious, and they already suppose military defeat of
the 'zone' in the war with Azerbaijan, already with Turkey's support,
and demonstration of military and political inconsistency of Russia
and CSTO. It would be an important and effective lever of collapse
of the Russian system.
Of course, Russia will try to give the 'disputable territories'
to Azerbaijan and strengthen its own foothold, and at the same time
normalize its relations with Turkey but it will not be allowed to,
and the 'disputable territories' will be given to Azerbaijan but not
as part of the Russian plan.
At present, the zonal society is confused as much as its government but
still denies that this is the only way to save from great delusions in
the result of repetition of history. The zonal propaganda keeps its
tail between its legs and is trying to pretend that nothing special
has happened. War is awaiting us, whether a propagandist or a deserter,
the essence does not change.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32418#sthash.yL2feSM5.dpuf