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HOLLANDE ON THE CAUCASUS
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
May 12 2014
12 May 2014 - 1:29pm
By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively
for Vestnik Kavkaza
French President Francois Hollande started his visit to the South
Caucasus with Azerbaijan. He will arrive in Armenia tomorrow and
visit Georgia after. The French president has two days to visit
three countries.
The visit of such a high-ranking politician is certainly a historic
one, especially in the complicated and disputed South Caucasus and
in the light of the catastrophic events in Ukraine. The latter are
momentous for the post-Soviet space.
The programs of Hollande for every South Caucasus state were made
exceptionally consistent, in terms of equipollence. Each includes
meetings with the president, officials of the political establishment,
economic sub-program and humanitarian talks.
Hollande took part in the founding of a French lycee in Baku. In
Yerevan, he will attend a concert of Charles Aznavour and the opening
of a park named after Misak Manushyan, a resistance activist executed
by German occupiers in Paris in 1944. He will partake in a presentation
of a cableway in Chiatura (Georgia). The cableway will be built by
a French company.
In Baku and Yerevan, Hollande, whose country co-chairs the OSCE
Minsk Group, plans to discuss the most topical problems, such as
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It looks even more intriguing,
considering the three scenarios U.S. co-chair of the OSCE MG James
Warlick has recently made for the Nagorno-Karabakh process: settlement
via negotiations, continuation of the status quo or war.
The sides in the conflict, which hardly find common ground, have given
the same interpretation to the diplomat's words: the U.S. is ready
to activate its role in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the
context of the Ukrainian events. The point is that Moscow, Washington
and Paris, coordinating the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process
and interested in achieving progress, do not want one of themselves
to make the breakthrough. Clearly, such a deed would automatically
strengthen the positions of a certain mediator in the strategic
region. The interests of Washington, Moscow and Paris differ here. It
is either progress and maybe even a resolution of the conflict
together or further stagnation. Azerbaijani and Armenian expert
societies are dominated by pessimism: Francois Hollande is unlikely
to bring sensational mutually-acceptable proposals and his mission
will most likely consist of peacekeeping and sedative declarations.
Baku does not rule out the chances that France may discuss the
activities of its Total. The latter, engaged in several large-scale
projects in Azerbaijan, suddenly ceased work in the country. It is
still unclear why the French sold their assets in Caspian projects.
The hastiness of the decisions, however, seems very suspicious. This
is why Hollande may discuss the return of Total or keep France involved
in energy projects of Azerbaijan.
In Armenia, Hollande will pay special attention to the potential of
economic cooperation, in addition the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. No wonder
he will be assisted by the head of the Web-ISI company, specializing in
information technologies. The company has good ties with Armenia. Paris
and Yerevan have had special ties, giving relations a special quality
for a long time. Half a million Armenians living in France are closely
connected with their historic homeland.
Obviously, simplification of the investment regime and activation of
economic cooperation in general will be discussed.
President's Hollande's visit to Georgia is peculiar for the fact
that such a high-ranking politician has not visited it since the
formation of the new government. Now, the old authorities cannot
boast that Europe had forgotten about Tbilisi after President
Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation. Defense Minister Irakly Alasania's
request to send NATO missile forces to Georgia may become another
topic during the visit. The request was made in the context of the
Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
Tbilisi has already received signals that any problems with Moscow
could be resolved in a different fashion. Having put a lot of effort
into the cease-fire in the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, France is not
interested in escalation of the conflict. New tensions are especially
likely in the light of Tbilisi's European choice and readiness to sign
the EU association agreement this summer. The French president will be
curious to know the mood of the Georgian authorities over the event,
bearing the Ukrainian crisis in mind.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/55020.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
May 12 2014
12 May 2014 - 1:29pm
By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively
for Vestnik Kavkaza
French President Francois Hollande started his visit to the South
Caucasus with Azerbaijan. He will arrive in Armenia tomorrow and
visit Georgia after. The French president has two days to visit
three countries.
The visit of such a high-ranking politician is certainly a historic
one, especially in the complicated and disputed South Caucasus and
in the light of the catastrophic events in Ukraine. The latter are
momentous for the post-Soviet space.
The programs of Hollande for every South Caucasus state were made
exceptionally consistent, in terms of equipollence. Each includes
meetings with the president, officials of the political establishment,
economic sub-program and humanitarian talks.
Hollande took part in the founding of a French lycee in Baku. In
Yerevan, he will attend a concert of Charles Aznavour and the opening
of a park named after Misak Manushyan, a resistance activist executed
by German occupiers in Paris in 1944. He will partake in a presentation
of a cableway in Chiatura (Georgia). The cableway will be built by
a French company.
In Baku and Yerevan, Hollande, whose country co-chairs the OSCE
Minsk Group, plans to discuss the most topical problems, such as
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It looks even more intriguing,
considering the three scenarios U.S. co-chair of the OSCE MG James
Warlick has recently made for the Nagorno-Karabakh process: settlement
via negotiations, continuation of the status quo or war.
The sides in the conflict, which hardly find common ground, have given
the same interpretation to the diplomat's words: the U.S. is ready
to activate its role in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the
context of the Ukrainian events. The point is that Moscow, Washington
and Paris, coordinating the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process
and interested in achieving progress, do not want one of themselves
to make the breakthrough. Clearly, such a deed would automatically
strengthen the positions of a certain mediator in the strategic
region. The interests of Washington, Moscow and Paris differ here. It
is either progress and maybe even a resolution of the conflict
together or further stagnation. Azerbaijani and Armenian expert
societies are dominated by pessimism: Francois Hollande is unlikely
to bring sensational mutually-acceptable proposals and his mission
will most likely consist of peacekeeping and sedative declarations.
Baku does not rule out the chances that France may discuss the
activities of its Total. The latter, engaged in several large-scale
projects in Azerbaijan, suddenly ceased work in the country. It is
still unclear why the French sold their assets in Caspian projects.
The hastiness of the decisions, however, seems very suspicious. This
is why Hollande may discuss the return of Total or keep France involved
in energy projects of Azerbaijan.
In Armenia, Hollande will pay special attention to the potential of
economic cooperation, in addition the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. No wonder
he will be assisted by the head of the Web-ISI company, specializing in
information technologies. The company has good ties with Armenia. Paris
and Yerevan have had special ties, giving relations a special quality
for a long time. Half a million Armenians living in France are closely
connected with their historic homeland.
Obviously, simplification of the investment regime and activation of
economic cooperation in general will be discussed.
President's Hollande's visit to Georgia is peculiar for the fact
that such a high-ranking politician has not visited it since the
formation of the new government. Now, the old authorities cannot
boast that Europe had forgotten about Tbilisi after President
Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation. Defense Minister Irakly Alasania's
request to send NATO missile forces to Georgia may become another
topic during the visit. The request was made in the context of the
Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
Tbilisi has already received signals that any problems with Moscow
could be resolved in a different fashion. Having put a lot of effort
into the cease-fire in the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, France is not
interested in escalation of the conflict. New tensions are especially
likely in the light of Tbilisi's European choice and readiness to sign
the EU association agreement this summer. The French president will be
curious to know the mood of the Georgian authorities over the event,
bearing the Ukrainian crisis in mind.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/55020.html
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress