Tweet
NAGORNO-KARABAKH 20 YEARS ON
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 13 2014
by Amanda Paul
May 12 marked the 20th anniversary of the signing of the cease-fire
agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The
establishment of the cease-fire put an end to hostilities and bloodshed
in a war that lasted for nearly three years.
However, two decades later a solution has still not been found. The
still simmering conflict keeps the region in a state of "neither war,
nor peace." Karabakh, along with seven other Azerbaijani regions,
remains occupied by Armenia with over 600,000 Azerbaijanis remaining
displaced. With two borders closed (Turkey and Azerbaijan), Armenia has
become more dependent on Russia, while Karabakh's Armenian community
remains increasingly sure of their independence -- something that
has increased following Russia's annexation of Crimea. Despite
the cease-fire, shooting incidents continue with violations of the
cease-fire reported on an almost daily basis, with lives -- including
sometimes civilians -- continuing to be lost.
For the last two decades, the Organization for Security and Cooperation
(OSCE) has been mediating talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia,
yet a deal remains elusive. Many believe that the absence of major
hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the past two decades
has been the single achievement of the OSCE. Still, the two leaders
have inched closer to agreeing to a solution based on the so-called
"Madrid Principles" foresees: the return of Azerbaijani-occupied
lands around Nagorno-Karabakh, interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh;
a land corridor -- Lachin -- linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia;
the right of all displaced persons to return; and international
security guarantees, including a peacekeeping operation, eventual
determination of Karabakh' s status with a legally binding expression
of will. However, getting a signature has remained out of reach with
the compromises and concessions necessary to pin down the deal not
being forthcoming.
Apart from the hesitant leaders, both Azerbaijani and Armenian
societies are dubious about any concessions to the other side viewing
such concessions as a defeat. Trust between the peoples does not
exist and there is little belief that the end results could be a
win-win for all concerned.
Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine crisis with the Russian annexing
of Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, despite the security guarantees
that Ukraine had for its territorial integrity with the Budapest
Memorandum, has had a negative impact on Karabakh. First, it has
left the impression that international agreements or resolutions are
not worth the paper they are printed on, and second, it has created
concerns that any security guarantees offered as part of the settlement
to the Karabakh conflict may not stick. It has also clearly made it
more difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate.
Nevertheless, new steps need to be taken to keep the process alive,
as whenever the conflict is left to fester, there is usually an
increase in violence. Given that the process has become rather
lackluster, it needs to be shaken up. To date, the settlement process
has been very elite-driven. A highly secretive affair. There is
an urgent need to open up the process and make it more inclusive,
including bringing civil society on board. Despite the difficulties,
civil society from both countries have met and talked. This has been
possible thanks to international initiatives, such as the EU-supported
European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK), which finances five NGOs that target areas
such as youth, carrying out workshops aimed at peace-building. This
should be extended, including taking greater steps to being together
the two Karabakh communities. Ultimately, for any peace deal to
be accepted by society, it needs be negotiated in a democratic and
"inclusive" manner. Presently, there is a massive vacuum between the
elites and grassroots and this needs to be corrected.
Moreover, looking at processes used in other conflicts can be useful.
For example, in Cyprus other than just holding meetings between the
two leaders, workshops on issues related to the conflict to help
dress thorny issues in a broader fashion take place. This could be
used as a model for Karabakh, including also civil society actors
and other experts that have experience in conflict resolution such
as those that worked in Northern Ireland.
Karabakh remains a ticking time-bomb. Allowing it to explode would be
devastating for the entire region. We cannot wait another two decades.
A more creative approach to bring the conflict to a peaceful end is
urgently needed.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul_347700_nagorno-karabakh-20-years-on.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 13 2014
by Amanda Paul
May 12 marked the 20th anniversary of the signing of the cease-fire
agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The
establishment of the cease-fire put an end to hostilities and bloodshed
in a war that lasted for nearly three years.
However, two decades later a solution has still not been found. The
still simmering conflict keeps the region in a state of "neither war,
nor peace." Karabakh, along with seven other Azerbaijani regions,
remains occupied by Armenia with over 600,000 Azerbaijanis remaining
displaced. With two borders closed (Turkey and Azerbaijan), Armenia has
become more dependent on Russia, while Karabakh's Armenian community
remains increasingly sure of their independence -- something that
has increased following Russia's annexation of Crimea. Despite
the cease-fire, shooting incidents continue with violations of the
cease-fire reported on an almost daily basis, with lives -- including
sometimes civilians -- continuing to be lost.
For the last two decades, the Organization for Security and Cooperation
(OSCE) has been mediating talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia,
yet a deal remains elusive. Many believe that the absence of major
hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the past two decades
has been the single achievement of the OSCE. Still, the two leaders
have inched closer to agreeing to a solution based on the so-called
"Madrid Principles" foresees: the return of Azerbaijani-occupied
lands around Nagorno-Karabakh, interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh;
a land corridor -- Lachin -- linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia;
the right of all displaced persons to return; and international
security guarantees, including a peacekeeping operation, eventual
determination of Karabakh' s status with a legally binding expression
of will. However, getting a signature has remained out of reach with
the compromises and concessions necessary to pin down the deal not
being forthcoming.
Apart from the hesitant leaders, both Azerbaijani and Armenian
societies are dubious about any concessions to the other side viewing
such concessions as a defeat. Trust between the peoples does not
exist and there is little belief that the end results could be a
win-win for all concerned.
Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine crisis with the Russian annexing
of Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, despite the security guarantees
that Ukraine had for its territorial integrity with the Budapest
Memorandum, has had a negative impact on Karabakh. First, it has
left the impression that international agreements or resolutions are
not worth the paper they are printed on, and second, it has created
concerns that any security guarantees offered as part of the settlement
to the Karabakh conflict may not stick. It has also clearly made it
more difficult for the US and Russia to cooperate.
Nevertheless, new steps need to be taken to keep the process alive,
as whenever the conflict is left to fester, there is usually an
increase in violence. Given that the process has become rather
lackluster, it needs to be shaken up. To date, the settlement process
has been very elite-driven. A highly secretive affair. There is
an urgent need to open up the process and make it more inclusive,
including bringing civil society on board. Despite the difficulties,
civil society from both countries have met and talked. This has been
possible thanks to international initiatives, such as the EU-supported
European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK), which finances five NGOs that target areas
such as youth, carrying out workshops aimed at peace-building. This
should be extended, including taking greater steps to being together
the two Karabakh communities. Ultimately, for any peace deal to
be accepted by society, it needs be negotiated in a democratic and
"inclusive" manner. Presently, there is a massive vacuum between the
elites and grassroots and this needs to be corrected.
Moreover, looking at processes used in other conflicts can be useful.
For example, in Cyprus other than just holding meetings between the
two leaders, workshops on issues related to the conflict to help
dress thorny issues in a broader fashion take place. This could be
used as a model for Karabakh, including also civil society actors
and other experts that have experience in conflict resolution such
as those that worked in Northern Ireland.
Karabakh remains a ticking time-bomb. Allowing it to explode would be
devastating for the entire region. We cannot wait another two decades.
A more creative approach to bring the conflict to a peaceful end is
urgently needed.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul_347700_nagorno-karabakh-20-years-on.html