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THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH DISPUTE AFTER 20 YEARS BY SABINE FREIZER*
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 13 2014
May 12, 2014, Monday/ 16:53:31
Twenty years ago, Armenians and Azerbaijanis signed a ceasefire to
silence the artillery in Nagorno-Karabakh.
But since May 12, 1994, almost none of the subsequent steps have
strengthened that peace; the sides are still far from agreement on
a comprehensive settlement.
Instead, especially in the past few years, the number of people being
killed along the frontlines has risen. Some 30 persons a year are the
victims of snipers, shelling and mines. The Armenian and Azerbaijani
military budgets are increasing. Baku, in particular, has raised its
military budget from $175 million when President Ilham Aliyev was
inaugurated to $3.7 billion in 2013. The situation in Ukraine, and
particularly Russia's annexation of Crimea, is making the resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even more elusive.
For Azerbaijan, non-resolution of the conflict means that 14 percent of
its territory remains occupied and 600,000 Azerbaijanis are displaced,
the vast majority of whom are from lands around Nagorno-Karabakh
and not from the entity itself. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the local
population of between 90,000-150,000 feels increasingly secure of its
independence, but not of its security. Armenia is ever more dependent
on Russia and its long land borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are
sealed shut to trade and travel.
For the past 20 years, the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE) has been mediating talks between the Azerbaijani and
Armenian leadership through the OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Russian,
US and French representatives. They mainly focus on trying to resolve
the conflict between Azerbaijan's sovereignty and the right to maintain
its territorial integrity, and the Armenian demand that the majority
ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh be able to determine how they
are governed -- a demand shifting over time from unification with
Armenia to the establishment of their own state. Calls to change the
format of the international negotiations or to drop international
mediation altogether are becoming more persistent in the absence
of progress.
Since 2005, the parties have come closer to agreeing on the elements of
what is now a "well-established" compromise. These "basic principles"
are based on three fundamental components: the non-use of force,
territorial integrity and the right to self-determination. They
include six elements: the return of the occupied Azerbaijani
territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh; an interim status for
Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing security and self-governance; a
corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia; eventual determination
of Nagorno-Karabakh's status by a legally binding expression of will;
the right of all internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees to
return; and international security guarantees, including a peacekeeping
operation.
But the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia remain unable to finalize
the deal. Part of the problem is that they fear the public backlash
that would occur if they are viewed by their societies as making any
compromise. Confidence is in short supply in the region. Divisions
between the two societies keep growing, as the generations that
remember easy co-existence during the Soviet period get older and are
replaced by generations that have been schooled in an atmosphere of
hate and distrust of the other side.
In their ceasefire anniversary statement, the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs point out: "... a settlement will not be possible without a
basis of trust and understanding between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
people. We call on the sides to commit to active people to people
programs and security confidence building measures to reinforce the
peace process."(http://www.osce.org/mg/118419)
Thankfully, in the shadows of the official negotiation process
and the overall deterioration in people-to-people relations,
Azerbaijani and Armenian civil society groups have been taking
part in far-ranging dialogue on issues of common concern. Since
June 2010, much of this has been facilitated by international NGOs
within the European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the
Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK; www.epnk.org), an initiative
funded by the European Union. Meetings have involved women, youth,
journalists and expert groups -- from Armenia and Azerbaijan,
as well as Nagorno-Karabakh. Through these meetings, at least some
people have been able to see beyond the hate rhetoric voiced by their
media and politicians. They have even debated difficult topics like
Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status, considering the real differences
between the options of autonomy and independence
The past 20 years of negotiations show that peace between
Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot be made in closed rooms between the
countries' presidents. A much greater involvement of society is
needed. But Baku and Yerevan are not doing enough to support these
second-track efforts. Instead, Azerbaijan's arrest of journalist
Rauf Mirkadyrov, immediately after he was deported from Turkey
and the investigation of peacebuilding activists Arif and Leyla
Yunus, allegedly for espionage for Armenia, when in fact the three
are engaged in a civil society project called Public Dialogues
(http://www.publicdialogues.info/en/about-us), makes people-to-people
confidence-building even more difficult.
Events in Ukraine contribute to the sense of hopelessness. The blatant
violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed between the US, the
UK and Russia to provide Ukraine with security guarantees if it turned
over its nuclear arsenal, makes it unlikely today that Armenia will
accept similar guarantees in exchange for the territories it occupies.
After Russia's overt takeover of Crimea, it is also less likely
that international opinion will heed the four United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) resolutions passed in 1993 that call for the
withdrawal of local Armenian troops from Azerbaijani lands. Crimea
also demonstrates to Azerbaijan how it could navigate a quick military
operation to regain lost territory with only limited international
opposition. Russia, driven by its nationalist imperialist foreign
policy, has little interest in helping to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, which secures its key role in the region by keeping the
Caucasus from being an open and free transit route for Western
interests.
Twenty years ago, the withdrawal of troops, the return of refugees
and the deployment of peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh looked like
the next logical steps after the signature of the ceasefire. None of
this occurred. Instead, as the OSCE Minsk Group concludes, "the sides
have shown little willingness to take advantage of the opportunities
... or make the political decisions necessary for progress in this
peace process." Today, the prospect of renewed fighting, which this
time could have a regional dimension and pull in Russia and Turkey,
seems more likely than ever since 1994.
*Dr. Sabine Freizer is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-347597-the-nagorno-karabakh-dispute-after-20-years-by-sabine-freizer-.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 13 2014
May 12, 2014, Monday/ 16:53:31
Twenty years ago, Armenians and Azerbaijanis signed a ceasefire to
silence the artillery in Nagorno-Karabakh.
But since May 12, 1994, almost none of the subsequent steps have
strengthened that peace; the sides are still far from agreement on
a comprehensive settlement.
Instead, especially in the past few years, the number of people being
killed along the frontlines has risen. Some 30 persons a year are the
victims of snipers, shelling and mines. The Armenian and Azerbaijani
military budgets are increasing. Baku, in particular, has raised its
military budget from $175 million when President Ilham Aliyev was
inaugurated to $3.7 billion in 2013. The situation in Ukraine, and
particularly Russia's annexation of Crimea, is making the resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict even more elusive.
For Azerbaijan, non-resolution of the conflict means that 14 percent of
its territory remains occupied and 600,000 Azerbaijanis are displaced,
the vast majority of whom are from lands around Nagorno-Karabakh
and not from the entity itself. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the local
population of between 90,000-150,000 feels increasingly secure of its
independence, but not of its security. Armenia is ever more dependent
on Russia and its long land borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are
sealed shut to trade and travel.
For the past 20 years, the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE) has been mediating talks between the Azerbaijani and
Armenian leadership through the OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Russian,
US and French representatives. They mainly focus on trying to resolve
the conflict between Azerbaijan's sovereignty and the right to maintain
its territorial integrity, and the Armenian demand that the majority
ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh be able to determine how they
are governed -- a demand shifting over time from unification with
Armenia to the establishment of their own state. Calls to change the
format of the international negotiations or to drop international
mediation altogether are becoming more persistent in the absence
of progress.
Since 2005, the parties have come closer to agreeing on the elements of
what is now a "well-established" compromise. These "basic principles"
are based on three fundamental components: the non-use of force,
territorial integrity and the right to self-determination. They
include six elements: the return of the occupied Azerbaijani
territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh; an interim status for
Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing security and self-governance; a
corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia; eventual determination
of Nagorno-Karabakh's status by a legally binding expression of will;
the right of all internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees to
return; and international security guarantees, including a peacekeeping
operation.
But the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia remain unable to finalize
the deal. Part of the problem is that they fear the public backlash
that would occur if they are viewed by their societies as making any
compromise. Confidence is in short supply in the region. Divisions
between the two societies keep growing, as the generations that
remember easy co-existence during the Soviet period get older and are
replaced by generations that have been schooled in an atmosphere of
hate and distrust of the other side.
In their ceasefire anniversary statement, the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs point out: "... a settlement will not be possible without a
basis of trust and understanding between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
people. We call on the sides to commit to active people to people
programs and security confidence building measures to reinforce the
peace process."(http://www.osce.org/mg/118419)
Thankfully, in the shadows of the official negotiation process
and the overall deterioration in people-to-people relations,
Azerbaijani and Armenian civil society groups have been taking
part in far-ranging dialogue on issues of common concern. Since
June 2010, much of this has been facilitated by international NGOs
within the European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the
Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK; www.epnk.org), an initiative
funded by the European Union. Meetings have involved women, youth,
journalists and expert groups -- from Armenia and Azerbaijan,
as well as Nagorno-Karabakh. Through these meetings, at least some
people have been able to see beyond the hate rhetoric voiced by their
media and politicians. They have even debated difficult topics like
Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status, considering the real differences
between the options of autonomy and independence
The past 20 years of negotiations show that peace between
Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot be made in closed rooms between the
countries' presidents. A much greater involvement of society is
needed. But Baku and Yerevan are not doing enough to support these
second-track efforts. Instead, Azerbaijan's arrest of journalist
Rauf Mirkadyrov, immediately after he was deported from Turkey
and the investigation of peacebuilding activists Arif and Leyla
Yunus, allegedly for espionage for Armenia, when in fact the three
are engaged in a civil society project called Public Dialogues
(http://www.publicdialogues.info/en/about-us), makes people-to-people
confidence-building even more difficult.
Events in Ukraine contribute to the sense of hopelessness. The blatant
violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed between the US, the
UK and Russia to provide Ukraine with security guarantees if it turned
over its nuclear arsenal, makes it unlikely today that Armenia will
accept similar guarantees in exchange for the territories it occupies.
After Russia's overt takeover of Crimea, it is also less likely
that international opinion will heed the four United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) resolutions passed in 1993 that call for the
withdrawal of local Armenian troops from Azerbaijani lands. Crimea
also demonstrates to Azerbaijan how it could navigate a quick military
operation to regain lost territory with only limited international
opposition. Russia, driven by its nationalist imperialist foreign
policy, has little interest in helping to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, which secures its key role in the region by keeping the
Caucasus from being an open and free transit route for Western
interests.
Twenty years ago, the withdrawal of troops, the return of refugees
and the deployment of peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh looked like
the next logical steps after the signature of the ceasefire. None of
this occurred. Instead, as the OSCE Minsk Group concludes, "the sides
have shown little willingness to take advantage of the opportunities
... or make the political decisions necessary for progress in this
peace process." Today, the prospect of renewed fighting, which this
time could have a regional dimension and pull in Russia and Turkey,
seems more likely than ever since 1994.
*Dr. Sabine Freizer is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-347597-the-nagorno-karabakh-dispute-after-20-years-by-sabine-freizer-.html