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DE FACTO STATE OF TURKEY: SHALL WE DESPAIR?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 22 2014
by YAVUZ BAYDAR
May 22, 2014, Thursday
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with some lawyer friends
-- whose lives have been spent focusing on human rights causes --
about the course of Turkey and the despair surrounding the people
and on what to expect during and after the presidential elections.
No matter what aspect we discuss, the Turkey they described as
of today is a country on auto-pilot. The ruler, they agreed, has
normalized defiance of the law and now encourages everyone around
him, and others, to do so. The country has, as a whole, entered a
"de facto state," meaning most of the issues are bound to be handled
with less or no consideration for the law.
So is, for example, the Kurdish peace process, they argued.
As the pro-Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) political segment seems to
be engaged in talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the de facto developments -
on the municipal level -- only expand the ground for self-rule and
a political monopoly.
When I mentioned the necessity to institutionalize reforms in a new
constitution, they only smiled and said that things are running on such
a course that they have their own dynamics. That is to say, whether
or not there is a new constitution, Turkey will soon find itself in a
new sociopolitical reality, which may lead to cooperation between the
Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Peace and Democracy Party
(BDP) on a new social contract, excluding the main opposition.
But they fully agreed with me that such a prospect would signal a
period of unrest on a national scale. Trying to rule Turkey with no
sense of consensus, with disrespect for the rule of law and with a
growing appetite for oppressive methods will be a costly experiment.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's "national will" motto and its
total superiority over anything else is an erroneous invitation for
Turkey to become ungovernable at the end of the day.
Kurds are happy, the Kurdish lawyer said. They have no other
alternative besides tying their hopes to Erdogan, and they feel there
is historic momentum to leave behind dark times. What about all those,
among the Turks who fought for the Kurds' cause, demanding a future
of freedom and rights? Is it not a display of ethno-selfishness that
Kurds leave all those people alone, vulnerable and targeted?
"Go and tell that to the CHP [Republican's People Party] and other
groups on the left. The Kurds have been left alone and ignored by
them. And, mind you, if they saw any alternative to a democratic
front, they would welcome it," was the Kurdish lawyer's response. He,
of course, has a solid point.
The issue is that without the Kurdish vote, no presidential candidate
can seriously challenge Erdogan. Therefore, for swaths of people
across the ideological divide, post-August Turkey already looks like
a nightmare. They see a "party state" taking root indefinitely.
Any silver lining? Daron Acemoglu -- a Turkish-Armenian who is
one of the most renowned and cited economists in the world and who
is currently with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
--wrote in a Foreign Affairs article titled "The Failed Autocrat"
that "Despite creeping authoritarianism and polarization in Turkish
politics, one shouldn't despair."
"Although Erdogan's support among the urban and rural poor and large
segments of the middle class seems solid today, it is predicated on
continued economic growth and the delivery of public services to the
underprivileged," he argues.
"Erdogan's joy ride is over if the economy heads south (and it could --
Turkey's growth over the past six years has depended on unsustainable
levels of domestic consumption and trade deficits). In that case, the
opposition is likely to broaden and, having learned from experience
with the AKP, will eventually begin to demand institutions that fairly
represent the country as a whole.
"This is not to suggest that the recent slide in Turkish governance
should be viewed through rose-colored glasses. The AKP continues to
repress any opposition and will surely try to gag the Constitutional
Court. But the party's efforts to monopolize power should not surprise
in historical context. More than 50 years on, the process of building
inclusive political institutions in many postcolonial societies is
still ongoing. And it took France more than 80 years to build the
Third Republic after the collapse of the monarchy in 1789."
I wish I were this optimistic.
From: A. Papazian
Today's Zaman, Turkey
May 22 2014
by YAVUZ BAYDAR
May 22, 2014, Thursday
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with some lawyer friends
-- whose lives have been spent focusing on human rights causes --
about the course of Turkey and the despair surrounding the people
and on what to expect during and after the presidential elections.
No matter what aspect we discuss, the Turkey they described as
of today is a country on auto-pilot. The ruler, they agreed, has
normalized defiance of the law and now encourages everyone around
him, and others, to do so. The country has, as a whole, entered a
"de facto state," meaning most of the issues are bound to be handled
with less or no consideration for the law.
So is, for example, the Kurdish peace process, they argued.
As the pro-Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) political segment seems to
be engaged in talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the de facto developments -
on the municipal level -- only expand the ground for self-rule and
a political monopoly.
When I mentioned the necessity to institutionalize reforms in a new
constitution, they only smiled and said that things are running on such
a course that they have their own dynamics. That is to say, whether
or not there is a new constitution, Turkey will soon find itself in a
new sociopolitical reality, which may lead to cooperation between the
Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Peace and Democracy Party
(BDP) on a new social contract, excluding the main opposition.
But they fully agreed with me that such a prospect would signal a
period of unrest on a national scale. Trying to rule Turkey with no
sense of consensus, with disrespect for the rule of law and with a
growing appetite for oppressive methods will be a costly experiment.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's "national will" motto and its
total superiority over anything else is an erroneous invitation for
Turkey to become ungovernable at the end of the day.
Kurds are happy, the Kurdish lawyer said. They have no other
alternative besides tying their hopes to Erdogan, and they feel there
is historic momentum to leave behind dark times. What about all those,
among the Turks who fought for the Kurds' cause, demanding a future
of freedom and rights? Is it not a display of ethno-selfishness that
Kurds leave all those people alone, vulnerable and targeted?
"Go and tell that to the CHP [Republican's People Party] and other
groups on the left. The Kurds have been left alone and ignored by
them. And, mind you, if they saw any alternative to a democratic
front, they would welcome it," was the Kurdish lawyer's response. He,
of course, has a solid point.
The issue is that without the Kurdish vote, no presidential candidate
can seriously challenge Erdogan. Therefore, for swaths of people
across the ideological divide, post-August Turkey already looks like
a nightmare. They see a "party state" taking root indefinitely.
Any silver lining? Daron Acemoglu -- a Turkish-Armenian who is
one of the most renowned and cited economists in the world and who
is currently with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
--wrote in a Foreign Affairs article titled "The Failed Autocrat"
that "Despite creeping authoritarianism and polarization in Turkish
politics, one shouldn't despair."
"Although Erdogan's support among the urban and rural poor and large
segments of the middle class seems solid today, it is predicated on
continued economic growth and the delivery of public services to the
underprivileged," he argues.
"Erdogan's joy ride is over if the economy heads south (and it could --
Turkey's growth over the past six years has depended on unsustainable
levels of domestic consumption and trade deficits). In that case, the
opposition is likely to broaden and, having learned from experience
with the AKP, will eventually begin to demand institutions that fairly
represent the country as a whole.
"This is not to suggest that the recent slide in Turkish governance
should be viewed through rose-colored glasses. The AKP continues to
repress any opposition and will surely try to gag the Constitutional
Court. But the party's efforts to monopolize power should not surprise
in historical context. More than 50 years on, the process of building
inclusive political institutions in many postcolonial societies is
still ongoing. And it took France more than 80 years to build the
Third Republic after the collapse of the monarchy in 1789."
I wish I were this optimistic.
From: A. Papazian