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Is Putin's Eurasian Vision Losing Steam?

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  • Is Putin's Eurasian Vision Losing Steam?

    IS PUTIN'S EURASIAN VISION LOSING STEAM?

    Helsinki Times, Finland
    May 22 2014

    Details Parent Category: World Category: International news 22 May 2014

    VICTORY Day on 9 May was an occasion for Russians to indulge in
    patriotic flag waving in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin
    used the previous day to muster a show of diplomatic support for his
    efforts to bring formerly Soviet states closer together.

    On 8 May, Putin met with the presidents of Armenia, Belarus,
    Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the Kremlin. Following the success of the
    Euromaidan movement in Kyiv, Putin has made it a priority to shore up
    support among other formerly Soviet states for Russia's geopolitical
    agenda, in particular the establishment of a regional economic union
    as a precursor to a wider political union of Eurasian states.

    A treaty on the formation of a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is due
    to be signed in Astana in late May, paving the way for its launch in
    January 2015. The body would be an outgrowth of the existing Customs
    Union, a free trade zone comprising Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

    Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are slated to join the Customs Union before
    the end of the year.

    As Putin warmly welcomed existing and potential union members in
    Moscow on 8 May, ostensibly for security talks unrelated to the
    economic integration project, the question on the lips of Kremlin
    watchers was: will they or won't they put pen to paper on the EEU
    founding document in less than three weeks' time?

    The Moscow meeting came on the heels of a disastrous Customs Union
    summit in Minsk on 29 April, where expectations of finalising the
    treaty fizzled as Putin and his counterparts, Alexander Lukashenko
    of Belarus and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, admitted that,
    at this late stage, they have differences over the pact's wording.

    Nazarbayev's conspicuous absence from the 8 May talks in Moscow,
    convened under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty
    Organisation, set tongues wagging about differences of opinion.

    Contacted by telephone by EurasiaNet.org, Nazarbayev's office said
    it had no comment -- but some observers interpreted his no-show as
    a snub to Putin from one of his closest allies.

    As other regional leaders were cosying up to the Kremlin, Nazarbayev
    was having a tete a tete in Astana with a senior official from the
    United States, Moscow's arch-rival in the geopolitical struggle over
    Ukraine. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns used the meeting to
    assure Nazarbayev of America's "enduring" commitment to Kazakhstan and
    Central Asia, the State Department said, as the Ukraine crisis helps
    "underscore what's at stake."

    Regional analysts tend to believe that the recent signs are not
    indicators of insurmountable problems surrounding the EEU's formation.

    "It's hard to predict anything these days, but it seems to me that the
    treaty will be signed -- but in a reduced form, with most difficult
    issues to be resolved after signing," Nargis Kassenova, director
    of the Central Asian Studies Center at Almaty's KIMEP University,
    told EurasiaNet.org.

    "If it's not signed it will be a blow to the reputation of Vladimir
    Putin, but also to some extent that of Nursultan Nazarbayev," she
    added. "Both invested a lot of personal image capital into it."

    Alex Nice, a regional analyst at the London-based Economist
    Intelligence Unit, also feels that integration plans are more or less
    on track.

    "It's possible there might be a further delay to the final signing of
    the document, but I'm confident that the treaty will come into force
    as planned next January," he told EurasiaNet.org, pointing out that
    "negotiations on the EEU treaty are very far advanced."

    The chances of the agreement being signed on time are "quite high,"
    concurred regional security expert Aida Abzhaparova of the University
    of the West of England. Nazarbayev is a cheerleader for integration,
    she pointed out, and signing the treaty in Astana would have huge
    "symbolism" for him: Nazarbayev first proposed the notion of a
    Eurasian union long before Putin took it up, and sees himself as
    "the father of the idea."

    Speculation that the union might be heading off the rails was fueled by
    reports on 7 May that Kyrgyzstan's prime minister, Joomart Otorbayev,
    wished to postpone membership for a year -- but his spokeswoman
    denied the claim. Otorbayev had, on the contrary, said Kyrgyzstan
    would complete the legislative groundwork to join by the end of the
    year, Gulnura Toraliyeva told EurasiaNet.org by telephone.

    Perhaps the biggest threat to the EEU's success is Russia's actions
    in Ukraine, suggests Kassenova.

    "The Ukraine crisis undermined Russian policy in the post-Soviet
    space," Kassenova said. "Now it's seen as a bully without any respect
    for the sovereignty of its neighbours. Plus, the crisis undermined
    the economy of Russia and made it less capable of serving as the
    locomotive of integration."

    "On the one hand, the crisis should give more bargaining power to
    Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan," she continued. "On the other,
    the overall destiny of the project is in doubt: will Russia have the
    will and resources to support and sponsor it further?"

    INTER PRESS SERVICE JOANNA LILLIS

    http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/world-news/international-news/10694-is-putin-s-eurasian-vision-losing-steam.html

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