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Between Two Fires
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Saturday, 24 May 2014, 15:06
The European Union, either out of thoughtlessness, or as part of a
plan, continues to send signals to the "zone" that the doors to the
European space are still open and there are even remarks that certain
mechanisms of cooperation may be worked out which would be compatible
with the Customs Union and everything else relating to Russia's
ambitions.
It is hard to propose a more dishonest game because Europe has a crisp
and clear decision on the future and political destiny of the "zone".
Currently, after such an ugly phenomenon as "September 3", the "zone"
is viewed as a highly dangerous topic which may intensify threats in
the direction of the Black Sea and the South Caucasus which does not
just separate the region from Europe but also makes global politics
tenser.
One way or another, the "zone" is tightly bound to a series of
conflicting circumstances and complicates any decision regarding
global political and economic projects. Identically with certain
clusters of the European space and society, (primarily in the result
of being a Christian type of a society) the "zone" has appeared in an
awkward situation due to flaring thoughtlessness and insufficient work
with the European bureaucracy and political circles. The proposed
mechanisms of returning the "zone" to the European Union require an
explanation of real conditions of the political situation in the
"zone".
The conditions of negotiations and agreement on conditions with the
European Union remained a secret untill September 3, covered with
dark, only for "professional political scientists", central districts
of Yerevan while for the interested analysts there were no special
secrets and veiled circumstances. The political leadership of the
"zone" did not even try to discuss security issues though there were
such possibilities, especially in terms of integration of the European
Union and NATO in the sphere of European security.
Now the European politicians and officials are trying to excuse
themselves retrospectively and make the "zone" believe that "life
always has room for the European vector". Nine months have passed
since September 3, and one could have children in this period but the
position of Europe on the "zone" has not changed. The Europeans and
Americans have the understanding that the pro-Russian economic,
political and military blocs are gradually falling apart and growing
marginal.
The West, unequivocal on sanctions against Russia, could entrap these
pro-Russian blocs into collapse, but they refrain because first the
West does not see prospects before these blocs, and second they are
reluctant to assume responsibility for political destruction and,
thirdly, sanctions relating to the developments in Ukraine could cause
the collapse of anything without additional decisions.
What could the proposed mechanisms of integration with the "zone"
mean? There is only one thing - highly limited economic and political
obligations, shedding all responsibility for economic development and
security onto Russia. This is a well-considered idea elaborated
through consultations, which reminds of a "game operation" based on
forming the anti-Russian vector of the entire South Caucasus.
Moscow has understood this very well and does not hurry to treat the
"zone" as an institutional partner, set up binding relations at a
higher level. The Russians have understood that they are trying to
make a problem for Russia out of the "zone", maybe not a crucial one
but still. The Russians have done everything to present the "zone" and
its society as highly unreliable, politically inadequate, which cannot
be considered as a sovereign state.
The "zone" is politically, economically and socially disorganized and
less dangerous as an instrument for the West's anti-Russian policy. It
could not have been worse. At any rate, it would be highly problematic
for Russia. Of course, Moscow would not have all these doubts had
there not been for the developments in Ukraine, for Maidan the results
of which have devaluated and deprived of meaning most plans of Russia.
The political leadership of the "zone" is aware of how deeply it has
been misled, but apparently it is again being misled as the top
government is growing less frank. One has to be extremely cynical and
shaky to try to make the first person in the "zone" believe that
nothing special has happened, and they may try to return to the
European space through the back door.
There is no doubt that this assumption is made to relevant remarks and
instructions of Moscow. When the country, especially one in the form
of a "zone", appears in severe international isolation, with all its
interests fully ignored, any government, even the most self-confident
one, will collapse, and even the people of the first echelon of
government understand this. Simplified iteration failed,
simplification became an indecent sign of the castrated
pseudo-intellectual service team which has nothing else to tell aside
from lies that they had foreseen this tragicomedy.
Having agreed on the destiny of the "zone", the Europeans and
Americans have proposed to its leadership a difficult scheme of
behavior which consists in walking side by side with isolated Russia
and demand that it resolve economic and military-political issues. It
would add to Russia's problems in the strategic southern dimension.
The political leadership of the zone is caught between two fires and
does not know what to do.
There are two ways - continue to agree everything with Moscow and
appear in far more isolation or run the risk of accepting the West's
proposal, thereby allow that the ruling regime stay in its place. The
situation is further complicated by lack of interest in Moscow to
either confirm the legitimacy of the present government or support its
possible opponents. In other words, even the real opposition, like the
government, have a grudge on Moscow and are not likely to continue to
fulfill its instructions or are rather ready to fulfill the functions
formally, dooming the Russian policy in the "zone" to failure.
In this catastrophic situation, two real forces are left in the "zone"
that are capable of a political and ideological coup, the army and the
young generation, which is acknowledged by everyone. What could back
these "modest" clusters of real forces?
For the time being, only what was expected in the fall of the pathetic
but not very scary year of 2013. The European Union and NATO have
different mechanics, concepts and interests despite the matching
members of these two global organizations. The European Union has
inhibitions and is able to propose highly limited initiatives though
it is actively promoting its "Eastern policy".
The "zone", however, could accelerate integration with NATO and work
out proposals for the NATO summit in Cardiff in the fall of 2014 where
new decisions will be made and the former ones have been confirmed
which were not implemented at full. Is this a chance? No, this is a
real opportunity, and ignoring this opportunity would be a condition
for implementation of the West's plans adding to the problems of
Russia, which determines the agreements with the West and Russia. To
feel how fair this statement is it should be noted that the Russian
propaganda in the zone has failed and proved inefficient.
The question is whether a dialogue will have to be conducted amid the
profanation offered by the West and Russia. Apparently yes because
there is no alternative. We will have to deal with the mess we made so
thoughtlessly.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32473#sthash.UqwCamDL.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Saturday, 24 May 2014, 15:06
The European Union, either out of thoughtlessness, or as part of a
plan, continues to send signals to the "zone" that the doors to the
European space are still open and there are even remarks that certain
mechanisms of cooperation may be worked out which would be compatible
with the Customs Union and everything else relating to Russia's
ambitions.
It is hard to propose a more dishonest game because Europe has a crisp
and clear decision on the future and political destiny of the "zone".
Currently, after such an ugly phenomenon as "September 3", the "zone"
is viewed as a highly dangerous topic which may intensify threats in
the direction of the Black Sea and the South Caucasus which does not
just separate the region from Europe but also makes global politics
tenser.
One way or another, the "zone" is tightly bound to a series of
conflicting circumstances and complicates any decision regarding
global political and economic projects. Identically with certain
clusters of the European space and society, (primarily in the result
of being a Christian type of a society) the "zone" has appeared in an
awkward situation due to flaring thoughtlessness and insufficient work
with the European bureaucracy and political circles. The proposed
mechanisms of returning the "zone" to the European Union require an
explanation of real conditions of the political situation in the
"zone".
The conditions of negotiations and agreement on conditions with the
European Union remained a secret untill September 3, covered with
dark, only for "professional political scientists", central districts
of Yerevan while for the interested analysts there were no special
secrets and veiled circumstances. The political leadership of the
"zone" did not even try to discuss security issues though there were
such possibilities, especially in terms of integration of the European
Union and NATO in the sphere of European security.
Now the European politicians and officials are trying to excuse
themselves retrospectively and make the "zone" believe that "life
always has room for the European vector". Nine months have passed
since September 3, and one could have children in this period but the
position of Europe on the "zone" has not changed. The Europeans and
Americans have the understanding that the pro-Russian economic,
political and military blocs are gradually falling apart and growing
marginal.
The West, unequivocal on sanctions against Russia, could entrap these
pro-Russian blocs into collapse, but they refrain because first the
West does not see prospects before these blocs, and second they are
reluctant to assume responsibility for political destruction and,
thirdly, sanctions relating to the developments in Ukraine could cause
the collapse of anything without additional decisions.
What could the proposed mechanisms of integration with the "zone"
mean? There is only one thing - highly limited economic and political
obligations, shedding all responsibility for economic development and
security onto Russia. This is a well-considered idea elaborated
through consultations, which reminds of a "game operation" based on
forming the anti-Russian vector of the entire South Caucasus.
Moscow has understood this very well and does not hurry to treat the
"zone" as an institutional partner, set up binding relations at a
higher level. The Russians have understood that they are trying to
make a problem for Russia out of the "zone", maybe not a crucial one
but still. The Russians have done everything to present the "zone" and
its society as highly unreliable, politically inadequate, which cannot
be considered as a sovereign state.
The "zone" is politically, economically and socially disorganized and
less dangerous as an instrument for the West's anti-Russian policy. It
could not have been worse. At any rate, it would be highly problematic
for Russia. Of course, Moscow would not have all these doubts had
there not been for the developments in Ukraine, for Maidan the results
of which have devaluated and deprived of meaning most plans of Russia.
The political leadership of the "zone" is aware of how deeply it has
been misled, but apparently it is again being misled as the top
government is growing less frank. One has to be extremely cynical and
shaky to try to make the first person in the "zone" believe that
nothing special has happened, and they may try to return to the
European space through the back door.
There is no doubt that this assumption is made to relevant remarks and
instructions of Moscow. When the country, especially one in the form
of a "zone", appears in severe international isolation, with all its
interests fully ignored, any government, even the most self-confident
one, will collapse, and even the people of the first echelon of
government understand this. Simplified iteration failed,
simplification became an indecent sign of the castrated
pseudo-intellectual service team which has nothing else to tell aside
from lies that they had foreseen this tragicomedy.
Having agreed on the destiny of the "zone", the Europeans and
Americans have proposed to its leadership a difficult scheme of
behavior which consists in walking side by side with isolated Russia
and demand that it resolve economic and military-political issues. It
would add to Russia's problems in the strategic southern dimension.
The political leadership of the zone is caught between two fires and
does not know what to do.
There are two ways - continue to agree everything with Moscow and
appear in far more isolation or run the risk of accepting the West's
proposal, thereby allow that the ruling regime stay in its place. The
situation is further complicated by lack of interest in Moscow to
either confirm the legitimacy of the present government or support its
possible opponents. In other words, even the real opposition, like the
government, have a grudge on Moscow and are not likely to continue to
fulfill its instructions or are rather ready to fulfill the functions
formally, dooming the Russian policy in the "zone" to failure.
In this catastrophic situation, two real forces are left in the "zone"
that are capable of a political and ideological coup, the army and the
young generation, which is acknowledged by everyone. What could back
these "modest" clusters of real forces?
For the time being, only what was expected in the fall of the pathetic
but not very scary year of 2013. The European Union and NATO have
different mechanics, concepts and interests despite the matching
members of these two global organizations. The European Union has
inhibitions and is able to propose highly limited initiatives though
it is actively promoting its "Eastern policy".
The "zone", however, could accelerate integration with NATO and work
out proposals for the NATO summit in Cardiff in the fall of 2014 where
new decisions will be made and the former ones have been confirmed
which were not implemented at full. Is this a chance? No, this is a
real opportunity, and ignoring this opportunity would be a condition
for implementation of the West's plans adding to the problems of
Russia, which determines the agreements with the West and Russia. To
feel how fair this statement is it should be noted that the Russian
propaganda in the zone has failed and proved inefficient.
The question is whether a dialogue will have to be conducted amid the
profanation offered by the West and Russia. Apparently yes because
there is no alternative. We will have to deal with the mess we made so
thoughtlessly.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32473#sthash.UqwCamDL.dpuf