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NEW TRANSPORT PROJECTS IN THE REGION
26.05.2014
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Ph.D., Deputy Director of "Noravank" Foundation
Recently there has been a surge in work on international transport
projects. This concerns also the South Caucasus and Caspian region,
where several projects are close to completion. Unfortunately, these
projects may to a certain extent negatively affect the regional
interests of the Republic of Armenia.
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara: the Final Phase?
In early May 2014 discussions intensified around prospects of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would connect Iran and Azerbaijan.
They were especially boosted by Azerbaijani president's visit to
Tehran in April, the significance of which was highly appraised both
by Iran and Azerbaijan.
It would not be true to say that I. Aliyev's visit produced
strategic changes in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, as the documents
signed during the visit did not have strategic significance and were
related to some narrow, small areas. At the same time, the top-level
Iranian-Azerbaijani negotiations broke the ice in the interstate
relations that was formed in recent years. This was also demonstrated
by the Iranian official media reports, where discussions between Aliyev
and Rouhani about Karabakh issue were reported with short information
at the end about the conflict, which almost literally repeated the
Azerbaijani standpoint, i.e. occupation of 20% of territory, Armenian
military units and 1 million refugees.
In any case, after the negotiations between Iranian and Azerbaijani
presidents, discussions intensified on implementation of joint
projects with participation of both countries. In May one of these
projects was brought to forefront, which is the construction of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would not only connect the railroads
of Iran and Azerbaijan, but also would create a direct transportation
channel from the Persian Gulf to Baltic Sea. This is a project of
global significance, implementation of which was halted due to Iran's
isolation and strained Iranian-Azeri relations. However, recently
there has been some progress made in both of these dimensions.
Thus in May, answering to a question from the official Iranian IRNA
news agency, Gilan province Governor General Mohammad Ali Najafi said
that the Iranian president has instructed all relevant ministries
to finish construction of the Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway as soon
as possible.
Gilan province Governor General's answer would have probably drawn no
much attention, because under the ongoing economic crisis in Iran there
are no government funds to finance large projects. However on May 7,
2014, during the Session of the Council for Rail Transport of CIS held
in Astana, Mohsen Pour Seyed Aqaie, Managing Director of Iran Railways
Organization (which has a status of an observer in the Council), met
his Azerbaijani and Russian counterparts and a trilateral agreement
was reached that Russian Railways JSC will build Qazvin-Rasht-Astara
railway track. A day later this was confirmed by Vladimir Yakunin,
who described the project as important and promising.
Russia's interest in this project can be explained both by strategic
and tactical considerations. In strategic terms it creates beneficial
prospects for Russia, as it allows Moscow to become an international
transit hub. Tactically the project is important, too, since it
breathes life into the potential Russia-Iran "oil deal" that has been
actively discussed recently. In this potential deal Iran is supposed
to export $15 billion worth of oil to Russia and receive services and
goods in exchange. Given the limitations of the export-oriented part
of the Russian economy, such export of goods seems hard to implement.
However, as far as the services are concerned (e.g. constructing a
railroad), the capabilities of Moscow are not that limited. In this
respect Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project is beneficial for Russia both
strategically and tactically.
Caspian railway chain
Iran's step up of activities in the area of transportation is not
limited to Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project. Iran's president has ordered
to speed up construction of Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railway.
According to Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi, Minister of Roads and Urban
Development, it will be completed in October 2014. This is not
just for the Iranian section of the railroad, but the whole
project. This means in near future the Iranian railroads will be
connected to Azerbaijan and Russia through Qazvin-Rasht-Astara, and
to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan through a second project. The first
one would also allow Iran to connect to Georgian railways and port of
Poti through Azerbaijan, whereas the second one opens opportunities
to link the railroads of Iran and China through construction of the
Kazakhstan-China railway.
In part, the reason for acceleration of works on these two projects is
that Iran attempts to use the window of opportunity created by some
improvement of relations with the West, in order to get economically
and politically more interconnected with the neighboring countries.
At the same time it has to be noted that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway
construction significantly diminishes prospects of constructing
Iran-Armenia railway, because both projects essentially solve the same
problem from the geographic point of view, that is, establishment of a
South-North transport corridor. Under such circumstances implementation
of one project decreases the chances of the other one materialize.
"Globus" analytical bulletin, No. 5, 2014
Return ________________________________ Another materials of author
GAS TRANSIT PIPELINE IRAN-ARMENIA: A CHANGE OF DISCOURSE[18.03.2014]
AN OUTLOOK FOR IRANIAN GAS IN ARMENIA [06.02.2014] JOINING OF
ARMENIA TO THE CUSTOMS UNION WILL ALLOW PROVIDING LOW GAS RATES -
EXPERT[13.09.2013] CSTO AND COMMUNICATION SECURITY[01.08.2013]
IRAN AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS[01.07.2013] "IRANIAN GAS
CAN REPLACE RUSSIAN BUT IT IS MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE"[10.06.2013]
KARS-AKHLKALAKI-TBILISI RAILWAY AND ITS REGIONAL PROSPECTS
[25.04.2013] QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA? [21.02.2013] IRAN
AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012] SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA
[27.09.2012]
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12728
From: A. Papazian
26.05.2014
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Ph.D., Deputy Director of "Noravank" Foundation
Recently there has been a surge in work on international transport
projects. This concerns also the South Caucasus and Caspian region,
where several projects are close to completion. Unfortunately, these
projects may to a certain extent negatively affect the regional
interests of the Republic of Armenia.
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara: the Final Phase?
In early May 2014 discussions intensified around prospects of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would connect Iran and Azerbaijan.
They were especially boosted by Azerbaijani president's visit to
Tehran in April, the significance of which was highly appraised both
by Iran and Azerbaijan.
It would not be true to say that I. Aliyev's visit produced
strategic changes in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, as the documents
signed during the visit did not have strategic significance and were
related to some narrow, small areas. At the same time, the top-level
Iranian-Azerbaijani negotiations broke the ice in the interstate
relations that was formed in recent years. This was also demonstrated
by the Iranian official media reports, where discussions between Aliyev
and Rouhani about Karabakh issue were reported with short information
at the end about the conflict, which almost literally repeated the
Azerbaijani standpoint, i.e. occupation of 20% of territory, Armenian
military units and 1 million refugees.
In any case, after the negotiations between Iranian and Azerbaijani
presidents, discussions intensified on implementation of joint
projects with participation of both countries. In May one of these
projects was brought to forefront, which is the construction of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would not only connect the railroads
of Iran and Azerbaijan, but also would create a direct transportation
channel from the Persian Gulf to Baltic Sea. This is a project of
global significance, implementation of which was halted due to Iran's
isolation and strained Iranian-Azeri relations. However, recently
there has been some progress made in both of these dimensions.
Thus in May, answering to a question from the official Iranian IRNA
news agency, Gilan province Governor General Mohammad Ali Najafi said
that the Iranian president has instructed all relevant ministries
to finish construction of the Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway as soon
as possible.
Gilan province Governor General's answer would have probably drawn no
much attention, because under the ongoing economic crisis in Iran there
are no government funds to finance large projects. However on May 7,
2014, during the Session of the Council for Rail Transport of CIS held
in Astana, Mohsen Pour Seyed Aqaie, Managing Director of Iran Railways
Organization (which has a status of an observer in the Council), met
his Azerbaijani and Russian counterparts and a trilateral agreement
was reached that Russian Railways JSC will build Qazvin-Rasht-Astara
railway track. A day later this was confirmed by Vladimir Yakunin,
who described the project as important and promising.
Russia's interest in this project can be explained both by strategic
and tactical considerations. In strategic terms it creates beneficial
prospects for Russia, as it allows Moscow to become an international
transit hub. Tactically the project is important, too, since it
breathes life into the potential Russia-Iran "oil deal" that has been
actively discussed recently. In this potential deal Iran is supposed
to export $15 billion worth of oil to Russia and receive services and
goods in exchange. Given the limitations of the export-oriented part
of the Russian economy, such export of goods seems hard to implement.
However, as far as the services are concerned (e.g. constructing a
railroad), the capabilities of Moscow are not that limited. In this
respect Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project is beneficial for Russia both
strategically and tactically.
Caspian railway chain
Iran's step up of activities in the area of transportation is not
limited to Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project. Iran's president has ordered
to speed up construction of Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railway.
According to Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi, Minister of Roads and Urban
Development, it will be completed in October 2014. This is not
just for the Iranian section of the railroad, but the whole
project. This means in near future the Iranian railroads will be
connected to Azerbaijan and Russia through Qazvin-Rasht-Astara, and
to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan through a second project. The first
one would also allow Iran to connect to Georgian railways and port of
Poti through Azerbaijan, whereas the second one opens opportunities
to link the railroads of Iran and China through construction of the
Kazakhstan-China railway.
In part, the reason for acceleration of works on these two projects is
that Iran attempts to use the window of opportunity created by some
improvement of relations with the West, in order to get economically
and politically more interconnected with the neighboring countries.
At the same time it has to be noted that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway
construction significantly diminishes prospects of constructing
Iran-Armenia railway, because both projects essentially solve the same
problem from the geographic point of view, that is, establishment of a
South-North transport corridor. Under such circumstances implementation
of one project decreases the chances of the other one materialize.
"Globus" analytical bulletin, No. 5, 2014
Return ________________________________ Another materials of author
GAS TRANSIT PIPELINE IRAN-ARMENIA: A CHANGE OF DISCOURSE[18.03.2014]
AN OUTLOOK FOR IRANIAN GAS IN ARMENIA [06.02.2014] JOINING OF
ARMENIA TO THE CUSTOMS UNION WILL ALLOW PROVIDING LOW GAS RATES -
EXPERT[13.09.2013] CSTO AND COMMUNICATION SECURITY[01.08.2013]
IRAN AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS[01.07.2013] "IRANIAN GAS
CAN REPLACE RUSSIAN BUT IT IS MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE"[10.06.2013]
KARS-AKHLKALAKI-TBILISI RAILWAY AND ITS REGIONAL PROSPECTS
[25.04.2013] QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA? [21.02.2013] IRAN
AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012] SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA
[27.09.2012]
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12728
From: A. Papazian