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VLADIMIR LEPEKHIN: RUSSIA HAS TO PASS FROM "SOFT FORCE" REGARDING THE USA TO THE "JUST FORCE" CONCEPT
Interview of Director of EurAsEC Institute (Moscow), Vladimir
Lepekhin, with Arminfo news agency
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, May 29, 18:01
What are the prospects of the final formation of the Customs Union and
Eurasian Economic Union against the background of the latest events
in Ukraine? The power change in Ukraine seems to delay the Eurasian
projects of Moscow...
Change of power in Kyev has not stopped but even speeded up the
process of establishing the Eurasian Economic Union,.The evident forced
're-orientation' of Ukraine to the European Union stimulated Armenia
and Kyrghyzstan to actively involve in the Eurasian Economic Union
and enhanced the cooperation of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
The state coup in Kyev catalyzed civilizational self-determination of
a range of non-western countries with an eye for the prospects of the
EAEU: Vietnam, South Korea, Mongolia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. As for
the absence of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev from the CSTO
Moscow Summit, it would be wrong stating that Nazarbayev refused
to meet his counterparts from Russia and CIS countries. The Kazakh
president just considered it inexpedient to study the situation in
Ukraine in the given format. According to Nazabayev, the situation in
Kyev touches the interests of Russia, but not the CSTO countries. In
addition, the processes in Ukraine and CSTO's stance on the given
issue is a very delicate issue and the president of Kazakhstan is,
sure, too sophisticated a politician to discuss that issue in an
enlarged meeting before all the nuances are understood.
By the results of the meeting between president of Kazakhstan,
US deputy secretary of state, William Burrns, said that Washington
and its partners will go on increasing pressure upon Russia until
Moscow changes its course regarding Ukraine. Is such development of
events possible?
Certainly, in the context of Russia's unwillingness to make concessions
to the USA, Washington's administration will increase pressure upon
Russia. However, in case of Russia, this pressure will have a boomerang
effect. The sanctions against our country are likely to cause not fear
or willingness to make concessions to Washington, but on the contrary,
an aspiration to form the harsher and more strict position regarding
the policy conducted by the Western "partners", up to replacement of
its local political doctrine and transition from the conception of a
"soft force" to the "smart force" or "just force".
Such a concept of a "just force" has been recently prepared by the
EurAsEC and submitted to Russia's Foreign Ministry for discussion. I
think that today changing of Russia's policy towards the USA is
a necessity dictated by the latest challenges and bobbery of the
global politics.
The unwillingness of Georgia and Azerbaijan to take part in the
Eurasian projects increases the importance of Armenia's participation
in them, as the only Caucasus state. However, the talks on Armenia's
joining the Customs Union has not completed yet. What is the main
reason of it?
The delay of Armenia's joining the Customs Union and Eurasian Economic
Union is linked with such a technical problem, as an extremely long
list of goods to be withdrawn from the general conditions of the
customs clearance.
I see no reasons in the political context. Because of external
reasons, it is beneficial for Armenia to establish closer relations
with Russia and the Customs Union. I think that Georgia and Azerbaijan
do not want to take part in the Eurasian projects of Moscow. Because
of several external reasons, today it is more beneficial to Georgia
and Azerbaijan to keep "neutrality" and distance both from Russia as
well as the Customs Union.
Aleksandr Lukashenko doubts about the prospects of participation of
Belarus in the Eurasian Union. What is the reason of it?
I think that Aleksandr Lukashenko's "doubts" about the prospects of
Belarus in the Eurasian Economic Union are explained by his pragmatic
and practical stance. Of course, at first sight, it is not clear why
the key partner of Russia at the post-Soviet area is not interested
in participation in the Eurasian projects. But it becomes clear,
when we remember that on the threshold of signing of the Agreement on
foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union Lukashenko expressed his
doubts, but later he got a regular credit from Russia in exchange
for withdrawal of these "doubts".
There is a viewpoint, according to which, if pro-Russian forces gain
a victory in Ukraine, the next will be Moldova and Azerbaijan. Is
fulfillment of such a scenario possible?
The development of the situation in Ukraine and the forceful
option of Ukraine's "integration" in the EU demonstrates what the
leadership of Azerbaijan will have in case of flirting with the
pro-European elites and European officials. The development of the
situation in Ukraine in favor of the supporters of federalization
will not have any other serious consequences for Azerbaijan. There
is no Russian-language community or any significant "pro-Russian"
forces in this country. I think that federalization of Ukraine will
not have serious consequences for Moldova either. This country has
taken the course of integration in the European Union, and today even
the true threat of de-facto separation of the Dnister region from
Moldova cannot stop the Moldovian elite gaining the financial aid
from the European Union, especially if we take into consideration
the fact that the leadership of Moldova have already made up their
mind to losing of the Dnister region and even Gagauzia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=7F8FB250-E73A-11E3-871A0EB7C0D21663
From: A. Papazian
Interview of Director of EurAsEC Institute (Moscow), Vladimir
Lepekhin, with Arminfo news agency
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, May 29, 18:01
What are the prospects of the final formation of the Customs Union and
Eurasian Economic Union against the background of the latest events
in Ukraine? The power change in Ukraine seems to delay the Eurasian
projects of Moscow...
Change of power in Kyev has not stopped but even speeded up the
process of establishing the Eurasian Economic Union,.The evident forced
're-orientation' of Ukraine to the European Union stimulated Armenia
and Kyrghyzstan to actively involve in the Eurasian Economic Union
and enhanced the cooperation of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
The state coup in Kyev catalyzed civilizational self-determination of
a range of non-western countries with an eye for the prospects of the
EAEU: Vietnam, South Korea, Mongolia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. As for
the absence of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev from the CSTO
Moscow Summit, it would be wrong stating that Nazarbayev refused
to meet his counterparts from Russia and CIS countries. The Kazakh
president just considered it inexpedient to study the situation in
Ukraine in the given format. According to Nazabayev, the situation in
Kyev touches the interests of Russia, but not the CSTO countries. In
addition, the processes in Ukraine and CSTO's stance on the given
issue is a very delicate issue and the president of Kazakhstan is,
sure, too sophisticated a politician to discuss that issue in an
enlarged meeting before all the nuances are understood.
By the results of the meeting between president of Kazakhstan,
US deputy secretary of state, William Burrns, said that Washington
and its partners will go on increasing pressure upon Russia until
Moscow changes its course regarding Ukraine. Is such development of
events possible?
Certainly, in the context of Russia's unwillingness to make concessions
to the USA, Washington's administration will increase pressure upon
Russia. However, in case of Russia, this pressure will have a boomerang
effect. The sanctions against our country are likely to cause not fear
or willingness to make concessions to Washington, but on the contrary,
an aspiration to form the harsher and more strict position regarding
the policy conducted by the Western "partners", up to replacement of
its local political doctrine and transition from the conception of a
"soft force" to the "smart force" or "just force".
Such a concept of a "just force" has been recently prepared by the
EurAsEC and submitted to Russia's Foreign Ministry for discussion. I
think that today changing of Russia's policy towards the USA is
a necessity dictated by the latest challenges and bobbery of the
global politics.
The unwillingness of Georgia and Azerbaijan to take part in the
Eurasian projects increases the importance of Armenia's participation
in them, as the only Caucasus state. However, the talks on Armenia's
joining the Customs Union has not completed yet. What is the main
reason of it?
The delay of Armenia's joining the Customs Union and Eurasian Economic
Union is linked with such a technical problem, as an extremely long
list of goods to be withdrawn from the general conditions of the
customs clearance.
I see no reasons in the political context. Because of external
reasons, it is beneficial for Armenia to establish closer relations
with Russia and the Customs Union. I think that Georgia and Azerbaijan
do not want to take part in the Eurasian projects of Moscow. Because
of several external reasons, today it is more beneficial to Georgia
and Azerbaijan to keep "neutrality" and distance both from Russia as
well as the Customs Union.
Aleksandr Lukashenko doubts about the prospects of participation of
Belarus in the Eurasian Union. What is the reason of it?
I think that Aleksandr Lukashenko's "doubts" about the prospects of
Belarus in the Eurasian Economic Union are explained by his pragmatic
and practical stance. Of course, at first sight, it is not clear why
the key partner of Russia at the post-Soviet area is not interested
in participation in the Eurasian projects. But it becomes clear,
when we remember that on the threshold of signing of the Agreement on
foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union Lukashenko expressed his
doubts, but later he got a regular credit from Russia in exchange
for withdrawal of these "doubts".
There is a viewpoint, according to which, if pro-Russian forces gain
a victory in Ukraine, the next will be Moldova and Azerbaijan. Is
fulfillment of such a scenario possible?
The development of the situation in Ukraine and the forceful
option of Ukraine's "integration" in the EU demonstrates what the
leadership of Azerbaijan will have in case of flirting with the
pro-European elites and European officials. The development of the
situation in Ukraine in favor of the supporters of federalization
will not have any other serious consequences for Azerbaijan. There
is no Russian-language community or any significant "pro-Russian"
forces in this country. I think that federalization of Ukraine will
not have serious consequences for Moldova either. This country has
taken the course of integration in the European Union, and today even
the true threat of de-facto separation of the Dnister region from
Moldova cannot stop the Moldovian elite gaining the financial aid
from the European Union, especially if we take into consideration
the fact that the leadership of Moldova have already made up their
mind to losing of the Dnister region and even Gagauzia.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=7F8FB250-E73A-11E3-871A0EB7C0D21663
From: A. Papazian