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TWO SCENARIOS RELATING TO ARMENIA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 31 October 2014, 23:46
The policy of any state is egotistic but by resolving the problems
of their own nation the centers of powers resolve a lot of matters
of international politics thanks to which non-big states exist.
The international community is close to the decision according to which
Armenia cannot exist as a sovereign state, which is something common
in world politics. However, this perception is followed by another:
the nation should not necessarily preserve its identity with all
circumstances stemming from it. It is a natural disaster for some
nations and an advantage and acceptable prospect for others.
The existing situation of smaller nations in Europe illustrates this.
Most of these peoples do not have to deal with foreign policy and
arrangements and deals between great powers.
For the nations located at "boundaries" of geopolitical plates foreign
policy is the main matter of survival, and arenas of many important
decisions, resistance and controversies are located in these areas.
For these nations these relations become the key subject of the
political intrigue and agenda.
Were there and are there international agreements relating to Armenia,
as well as are they expected?
Armenia had a lot of vectors of its foreign policy, first of all,
integration with the Euro-Atlantic community, as well as development
of cooperation in the Near and Middle East but Armenia preferred
localizing its "rights and interests" in Armenian-Turkish or
Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization.
In real politics, there is no more space for Armenia therefore Russia
has successfully implemented its plan of vassalization of Armenia. In
the 1990s, despite the ambitious plans of the United States, NATO and
the European Union, Armenia was not involved in special relations with
the West, while the Armenian elite was unable to fulfill alternative
tasks in international politics.
The United States and Russia, as well as the European political
"pole" agreed to the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations but there has never been consent to Armenia's participation
in military and political cooperation, different political-economic
and military-political blocs. The Western community has never had any
grounds for discussion with Russia on Armenia's role and importance.
There was a U-turn at the break of the 21st century in regional and
possibly also in the global geopolitics that was related to the review
of Turkish-American and Turkish-European relations which continued
when Iran and the United States arrived at the necessity to cooperate
over different key issues.
And while Armenia experienced the attempts of the United States and
Europe to absorb the South Caucasus, when Armenia was seen as a rival,
it is time to review a lot of foci in Armenian politics in terms of
emergence of new relations, especially irreversibility of strategic
rapprochement of Armenia and Russia.
The logic of this situation became stronger when it became clear that
Azerbaijan bids on Russia for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
It seemed that such arena as the Armenian-Turkish relations and the
Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and normalization were fully in line
with the interests of Armenia because the West had leading positions
in those aspects like Russia. However, it has become known that the
United States, Europe and Russia have not just different but also
openly hostile relations.
In this period possible alignments in relations became possible.
Furthermore NATO announced likely to boost its military and political
presence in Eastern Europe. A lot in the relations of global centers
of power could have become undefeatable. No matter what developments
there are, whether there is an alignment between Russia and the West
or not, Armenia gets favorable circumstances to attempt at using
approaches to functional division of spheres of influence.
The military command of Armenia has expressed readiness to develop
defense and security cooperation with NATO, the United States and
the West. Of course, Russia will not allow successful development of
relations of Armenia with the United States and NATO and will try to
not only entrap Armenia into a situation that relations with Armenia
will carry risks for the West but also put pressure on Armenia's
army command.
It is happening to some extent. There is no doubt that the political
leadership of Armenia which is represented by random people chosen
among the Russian agents will carry out each and every demand of
Russia's. Therefore, West's support, especially with a well-planned
scenario, can be crucial to Armenia at this stage.
The West was not ready to prevent Russia's pressure on the Eastern
Partnership, hoping for a peace settlement. Such behavior of the
West actually led to a war in Europe in the result of Ukrainian
developments. This situation was well understood and studied in detail
but even after that some NATO and EU member states preferred waiting,
overlooking the importance of their own national interests.
The situation has changed but how?
Russia has appeared in a tough international isolation, and if the
West does not make a decision on alleviating the Western blockade,
not only the economy but also the government of Russia will collapse
with possibility of escalation of ethnic and religious separatism.
Throughout history, especially of the modern period, the creation of
economic and military-political blocs has never been so scandalous,
shameful and suspicious.
It is not clear why the West is not trying to push Russia into the
hole more strongly. However, even this is not a problem. The problem is
how the interests of the West will be made in line with some regional
leaders that neighbor with Russia. There is no reason to insist that
the West will go for excessive resistance but the West has serious
reserves to disorganize Russia in every aspect.
A highly illogical situation has occurred in the South Caucasus
when an inadequate state remains at the center of the region that
contradicts all the regional actors and, furthermore, does not meet
the interests of the Euro-Atlantic community. Even if Armenia is
seen as a factor of failure of Russian presence in the region, it
will not be a justification of tolerating such a situation.
There is no doubt that the West will be trying to eliminate
this situation. The West has worked out two plans for involving
Armenia on the orbit of its interests: Armenia-Iran-West and
Armenia-Georgia-West. It is sufficient to ensure successful presence
of the United States and NATO in the region in a situation when Russia
and Turkey are ready to announce about the plans of their dominance
over the region.
In this situation, even with the traditional Armenian-Turkish and
Armenian-Azerbaijani stories, serious controversies occur between
the West and Russia, as well as the West and Turkey. The question
whether Armenia is capable of stopping its vassalization by Russia
is exhausted. The answer is clearly no. It is clear that Armenia thus
crosses itself out of sovereign nations that are capable of having a
nation state. However, the West is so pragmatic that it can overcome
emotions if at least some prospect of solving geopolitical problems
is seen.
Now the important thing is to have a certain level of confrontation
between the West and Russia. However, even if this confrontation is
overcome, the West will propose its policy, including in the South
Caucasian region because otherwise it will lose its positions in
Eastern Europe.
One has to understand that in the geopolitical struggle the West
treats Russia not as a rival though the struggle continues in this
public logic. The West hates Russia metaphysically and will never
accept its independence. Those who will follow Russia as obedient
animals will be lost sooner than Russia.
It has been announced in Europe's influential clubs that intolerable
mistakes have been made on Russia and it should not have been allowed
to stand up and announce about its geopolitical rights. The meaning
of salvation of the Russian state is embedded in ideas of subjecting
Russia. New policy makers and new clients may have emerged but Russia
will not avoid "renewal" with the ordered and planned configuration.
The Russians should pray for the Russians but who should they pray to?
Hence, the continuation of the confrontation will be the most
favorable prospect for Armenia, even considering new threats arising
from Russia's side. However, threats occur even due to the lack of
confrontation, even with full understanding between the West and
Russia if the West continues its policy on Eastern Europe.
All this is controversial indeed but one has to understand that the
West is trying to integrate the zone of Russia's national interests.
However, the usual tools of integration are not effective. Russia
must be made a secondary power.
One way or another, in order for Armenia to maintain its statehood,
Russia must sustain another political and economic defeat by the West.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33159#sthash.yhzEn4K0.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 31 October 2014, 23:46
The policy of any state is egotistic but by resolving the problems
of their own nation the centers of powers resolve a lot of matters
of international politics thanks to which non-big states exist.
The international community is close to the decision according to which
Armenia cannot exist as a sovereign state, which is something common
in world politics. However, this perception is followed by another:
the nation should not necessarily preserve its identity with all
circumstances stemming from it. It is a natural disaster for some
nations and an advantage and acceptable prospect for others.
The existing situation of smaller nations in Europe illustrates this.
Most of these peoples do not have to deal with foreign policy and
arrangements and deals between great powers.
For the nations located at "boundaries" of geopolitical plates foreign
policy is the main matter of survival, and arenas of many important
decisions, resistance and controversies are located in these areas.
For these nations these relations become the key subject of the
political intrigue and agenda.
Were there and are there international agreements relating to Armenia,
as well as are they expected?
Armenia had a lot of vectors of its foreign policy, first of all,
integration with the Euro-Atlantic community, as well as development
of cooperation in the Near and Middle East but Armenia preferred
localizing its "rights and interests" in Armenian-Turkish or
Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization.
In real politics, there is no more space for Armenia therefore Russia
has successfully implemented its plan of vassalization of Armenia. In
the 1990s, despite the ambitious plans of the United States, NATO and
the European Union, Armenia was not involved in special relations with
the West, while the Armenian elite was unable to fulfill alternative
tasks in international politics.
The United States and Russia, as well as the European political
"pole" agreed to the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations but there has never been consent to Armenia's participation
in military and political cooperation, different political-economic
and military-political blocs. The Western community has never had any
grounds for discussion with Russia on Armenia's role and importance.
There was a U-turn at the break of the 21st century in regional and
possibly also in the global geopolitics that was related to the review
of Turkish-American and Turkish-European relations which continued
when Iran and the United States arrived at the necessity to cooperate
over different key issues.
And while Armenia experienced the attempts of the United States and
Europe to absorb the South Caucasus, when Armenia was seen as a rival,
it is time to review a lot of foci in Armenian politics in terms of
emergence of new relations, especially irreversibility of strategic
rapprochement of Armenia and Russia.
The logic of this situation became stronger when it became clear that
Azerbaijan bids on Russia for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
It seemed that such arena as the Armenian-Turkish relations and the
Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and normalization were fully in line
with the interests of Armenia because the West had leading positions
in those aspects like Russia. However, it has become known that the
United States, Europe and Russia have not just different but also
openly hostile relations.
In this period possible alignments in relations became possible.
Furthermore NATO announced likely to boost its military and political
presence in Eastern Europe. A lot in the relations of global centers
of power could have become undefeatable. No matter what developments
there are, whether there is an alignment between Russia and the West
or not, Armenia gets favorable circumstances to attempt at using
approaches to functional division of spheres of influence.
The military command of Armenia has expressed readiness to develop
defense and security cooperation with NATO, the United States and
the West. Of course, Russia will not allow successful development of
relations of Armenia with the United States and NATO and will try to
not only entrap Armenia into a situation that relations with Armenia
will carry risks for the West but also put pressure on Armenia's
army command.
It is happening to some extent. There is no doubt that the political
leadership of Armenia which is represented by random people chosen
among the Russian agents will carry out each and every demand of
Russia's. Therefore, West's support, especially with a well-planned
scenario, can be crucial to Armenia at this stage.
The West was not ready to prevent Russia's pressure on the Eastern
Partnership, hoping for a peace settlement. Such behavior of the
West actually led to a war in Europe in the result of Ukrainian
developments. This situation was well understood and studied in detail
but even after that some NATO and EU member states preferred waiting,
overlooking the importance of their own national interests.
The situation has changed but how?
Russia has appeared in a tough international isolation, and if the
West does not make a decision on alleviating the Western blockade,
not only the economy but also the government of Russia will collapse
with possibility of escalation of ethnic and religious separatism.
Throughout history, especially of the modern period, the creation of
economic and military-political blocs has never been so scandalous,
shameful and suspicious.
It is not clear why the West is not trying to push Russia into the
hole more strongly. However, even this is not a problem. The problem is
how the interests of the West will be made in line with some regional
leaders that neighbor with Russia. There is no reason to insist that
the West will go for excessive resistance but the West has serious
reserves to disorganize Russia in every aspect.
A highly illogical situation has occurred in the South Caucasus
when an inadequate state remains at the center of the region that
contradicts all the regional actors and, furthermore, does not meet
the interests of the Euro-Atlantic community. Even if Armenia is
seen as a factor of failure of Russian presence in the region, it
will not be a justification of tolerating such a situation.
There is no doubt that the West will be trying to eliminate
this situation. The West has worked out two plans for involving
Armenia on the orbit of its interests: Armenia-Iran-West and
Armenia-Georgia-West. It is sufficient to ensure successful presence
of the United States and NATO in the region in a situation when Russia
and Turkey are ready to announce about the plans of their dominance
over the region.
In this situation, even with the traditional Armenian-Turkish and
Armenian-Azerbaijani stories, serious controversies occur between
the West and Russia, as well as the West and Turkey. The question
whether Armenia is capable of stopping its vassalization by Russia
is exhausted. The answer is clearly no. It is clear that Armenia thus
crosses itself out of sovereign nations that are capable of having a
nation state. However, the West is so pragmatic that it can overcome
emotions if at least some prospect of solving geopolitical problems
is seen.
Now the important thing is to have a certain level of confrontation
between the West and Russia. However, even if this confrontation is
overcome, the West will propose its policy, including in the South
Caucasian region because otherwise it will lose its positions in
Eastern Europe.
One has to understand that in the geopolitical struggle the West
treats Russia not as a rival though the struggle continues in this
public logic. The West hates Russia metaphysically and will never
accept its independence. Those who will follow Russia as obedient
animals will be lost sooner than Russia.
It has been announced in Europe's influential clubs that intolerable
mistakes have been made on Russia and it should not have been allowed
to stand up and announce about its geopolitical rights. The meaning
of salvation of the Russian state is embedded in ideas of subjecting
Russia. New policy makers and new clients may have emerged but Russia
will not avoid "renewal" with the ordered and planned configuration.
The Russians should pray for the Russians but who should they pray to?
Hence, the continuation of the confrontation will be the most
favorable prospect for Armenia, even considering new threats arising
from Russia's side. However, threats occur even due to the lack of
confrontation, even with full understanding between the West and
Russia if the West continues its policy on Eastern Europe.
All this is controversial indeed but one has to understand that the
West is trying to integrate the zone of Russia's national interests.
However, the usual tools of integration are not effective. Russia
must be made a secondary power.
One way or another, in order for Armenia to maintain its statehood,
Russia must sustain another political and economic defeat by the West.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33159#sthash.yhzEn4K0.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress