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Incumbent authorities must leave - Bagrat Asatryan
17:00 / 07.11.2014
On October 10 Armenia signed the agreement on membership to the
Eurasian Economic Union. Nyut.am conducted an interview with the
former chairman of the Central Bank, economist Bagrat Asatryan on what
to expect from economically declining Russia, what Armenia will
benefit or what difficulties it will face.
- Mr Asatryan you have mentioned many times that the Eurasian Economic
Union will not be a viral structure, that it will not function, while
our authorities claim that it is a new big market with wide
opportunities which will promote our economic development. Which is
more realistic?
- In general the Eurasian Union still remains a political project in
case of Armenia as its economic significance for our country is tiny.
Russia and the members of the Union do not have and cannot have any
economic interest in Armenia. Take for instance the volume of
trade-economic relations. We have them with Russia but very small with
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
They claim that we will have brilliant future, but it is not so with
the simple reason that we are separated from the united territory. If
we were joined, the opportunities would have been much wider while
today the whole communication with the member states is being
implemented through narrow mountainous road which may collapse and put
us in complicated situation. The alternatives ways are very expensive.
It means that the prior thing is the communication means, the lack of
reliable land road. This issue is not being discussed today.
- Can the Armenian producers stand the competition?
- We have registered one negative factor - the high transportation
price. As to the guarantees and prerequisites for the Armenian
producers to appear in beneficial situation, this issue is rather
complicated. First, Belarus, Russia and partially Kazakhstan
essentially differ from Armenia regarding the economic principles. The
state's participation in the economy in these countries is
significant. The state is behind Russian producer with quite serious
resources. Today, for instance, Russia's financial system is facing
some issues and the state immediately says that it will provide
assistance. Is this possible in Armenia? Of course not, as we do not
have such opportunities.
- Which is Armenia's hope?
- There is no serious project, division of work, establishment of new
production or restoration of old ones, moreover, there were no
investments in the enterprises handed to Russia within the framework
of Property for Debt deal. I have not heard of any program aimed at
development of the sphere. The hope probably is that the Armenian
businessmen will find their place in these markets due to their
flexibility and mainly in food market, in the sphere of reprocessing
the agricultural products, but there are some risks here too agreed
with the economic policies conducted in these countries.
- Which are they?
- For instance in the beginning of the year Russia's national currency
devaluated by 1/3, the same happened with the national currency of
Belarus and Kazakhstan while Armenia has stabile currency. In such
conditions the Armenian producers do not have comparative competition
privileges. And there are a number of such things which must at least
give food for thought. Under the political pressures Armenia follows
this way but the authorities must solve some issues. Which is the
guarantee that the same Armenian businessman will not leave Armenia
for these countries where better conditions are created?
- What steps must the authorities undertake for solving the mentioned issues?
- Our economy is more liberate and now it will face economic system
with state's participation and it is obvious that our system will have
some issues. It is necessary to work out approaches for economic,
currency policies which will make entrance to the new system without
losses or even with benefit.
- If to consider the reduction of living conditions of the people, the
increase of the unemployment rate, what will happen with Armenia?
- Among the domestic issues the economic one is not a priority. The
country is buried in injustice and self-willingness if not to say in
crime, starting from forming political power through wide-spread
violations of the Constitution till the governance principles. Armenia
has become a country for minorities - oligarchs, the invaders of the
political power, low-quality managers who are not even able to
understand the existing issues and moreover to propose solutions. And
all know where this situation can lead to.
- It is claimed that Armenia will have 250 million USD income from
general customs fees. Which is your forecast?
- There are issues here too. Armenia joins the union in condition of
sanctions imposed against Russia. As a result of these sanctions the
imports to Russia have reduced. That is to say the sum of the
collected customs fees will gradually reduce. How is it possible for
Armenia to benefit in such conditions? Russia is not in bad condition
but under the sanctions it is a declining economic unit and we must
realize it. Russia states that in the upcoming three years it will
have zero economic growth, its financial opportunities will
essentially reduce which already affects and will continue affecting
Armenia.
- It appears that the living conditions of people may become worse.
- We already face it. The reduction of private transfers negatively
affects people's living conditions. We are not only going to the worse
but we do it not being prepared to it anyhow as the authorities in our
countries are weak, are of low-quality.
- What must be done to change the situation in our country?
- First of all it is necessary to restore legality.
- Do you see any prerequisites for it?
- Of course. I see the prerequisites in the square where this demand
is being put. The incumbent authorities who are buried in flaws must
leave.
http://nyut.am/archives/277963?lang=en
17:00 / 07.11.2014
On October 10 Armenia signed the agreement on membership to the
Eurasian Economic Union. Nyut.am conducted an interview with the
former chairman of the Central Bank, economist Bagrat Asatryan on what
to expect from economically declining Russia, what Armenia will
benefit or what difficulties it will face.
- Mr Asatryan you have mentioned many times that the Eurasian Economic
Union will not be a viral structure, that it will not function, while
our authorities claim that it is a new big market with wide
opportunities which will promote our economic development. Which is
more realistic?
- In general the Eurasian Union still remains a political project in
case of Armenia as its economic significance for our country is tiny.
Russia and the members of the Union do not have and cannot have any
economic interest in Armenia. Take for instance the volume of
trade-economic relations. We have them with Russia but very small with
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
They claim that we will have brilliant future, but it is not so with
the simple reason that we are separated from the united territory. If
we were joined, the opportunities would have been much wider while
today the whole communication with the member states is being
implemented through narrow mountainous road which may collapse and put
us in complicated situation. The alternatives ways are very expensive.
It means that the prior thing is the communication means, the lack of
reliable land road. This issue is not being discussed today.
- Can the Armenian producers stand the competition?
- We have registered one negative factor - the high transportation
price. As to the guarantees and prerequisites for the Armenian
producers to appear in beneficial situation, this issue is rather
complicated. First, Belarus, Russia and partially Kazakhstan
essentially differ from Armenia regarding the economic principles. The
state's participation in the economy in these countries is
significant. The state is behind Russian producer with quite serious
resources. Today, for instance, Russia's financial system is facing
some issues and the state immediately says that it will provide
assistance. Is this possible in Armenia? Of course not, as we do not
have such opportunities.
- Which is Armenia's hope?
- There is no serious project, division of work, establishment of new
production or restoration of old ones, moreover, there were no
investments in the enterprises handed to Russia within the framework
of Property for Debt deal. I have not heard of any program aimed at
development of the sphere. The hope probably is that the Armenian
businessmen will find their place in these markets due to their
flexibility and mainly in food market, in the sphere of reprocessing
the agricultural products, but there are some risks here too agreed
with the economic policies conducted in these countries.
- Which are they?
- For instance in the beginning of the year Russia's national currency
devaluated by 1/3, the same happened with the national currency of
Belarus and Kazakhstan while Armenia has stabile currency. In such
conditions the Armenian producers do not have comparative competition
privileges. And there are a number of such things which must at least
give food for thought. Under the political pressures Armenia follows
this way but the authorities must solve some issues. Which is the
guarantee that the same Armenian businessman will not leave Armenia
for these countries where better conditions are created?
- What steps must the authorities undertake for solving the mentioned issues?
- Our economy is more liberate and now it will face economic system
with state's participation and it is obvious that our system will have
some issues. It is necessary to work out approaches for economic,
currency policies which will make entrance to the new system without
losses or even with benefit.
- If to consider the reduction of living conditions of the people, the
increase of the unemployment rate, what will happen with Armenia?
- Among the domestic issues the economic one is not a priority. The
country is buried in injustice and self-willingness if not to say in
crime, starting from forming political power through wide-spread
violations of the Constitution till the governance principles. Armenia
has become a country for minorities - oligarchs, the invaders of the
political power, low-quality managers who are not even able to
understand the existing issues and moreover to propose solutions. And
all know where this situation can lead to.
- It is claimed that Armenia will have 250 million USD income from
general customs fees. Which is your forecast?
- There are issues here too. Armenia joins the union in condition of
sanctions imposed against Russia. As a result of these sanctions the
imports to Russia have reduced. That is to say the sum of the
collected customs fees will gradually reduce. How is it possible for
Armenia to benefit in such conditions? Russia is not in bad condition
but under the sanctions it is a declining economic unit and we must
realize it. Russia states that in the upcoming three years it will
have zero economic growth, its financial opportunities will
essentially reduce which already affects and will continue affecting
Armenia.
- It appears that the living conditions of people may become worse.
- We already face it. The reduction of private transfers negatively
affects people's living conditions. We are not only going to the worse
but we do it not being prepared to it anyhow as the authorities in our
countries are weak, are of low-quality.
- What must be done to change the situation in our country?
- First of all it is necessary to restore legality.
- Do you see any prerequisites for it?
- Of course. I see the prerequisites in the square where this demand
is being put. The incumbent authorities who are buried in flaws must
leave.
http://nyut.am/archives/277963?lang=en