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The Daily Single
Nov 22 2014
Don't Forget Putin. He's Still Moving Aggressively.
Ted Bromund
NATO recently confirmed that Russian tanks were moving into
rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine. But Russia's aggression under
Vladimir Putin didn't begin in Ukraine and, unless the West stops
vacillating, it won't end there, either.
After the 2003 Rose Revolution, the nation of Georgia, in the
Caucasus, became a staunch American ally. But in 2008, it was invaded
and partially occupied by Putin's Russia, and in 2012 its pro-Western
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, lost the parliamentary elections.
Since then, Georgia has been governed by a coalition founded by a
shadowy billionaire who made his money in Russia. But recently, the
Georgian defense minister was fired and its foreign minister quit.
Both advocated closer ties to the West. Georgia is drifting into
Russia's orbit.
Next to Georgia are Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia, heavily armed by
Russia, supports a separatist territory inside Azerbaijan, which is a
major oil producer. As Russia also exports energy, it has a lot to
gain from threatening Azerbaijan.
Last week, in a sequel to major border clashes in August, Azerbaijan's
military shot down an Armenian helicopter. Armenia is not a mere
Russian puppet, but by backing Armenia, Russia perpetuates the
conflict and again makes Russian influence felt in the Caucasus.
If Armenia is a problem, Iran is a threat. Russia announced a contract
last week to build eight new nuclear reactors in Iran. There is
nothing new about Moscow's nuclear ties to Tehran: Russia completed
Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr.
Supposedly the new reactors, like Bushehr, will produce only
electricity. But the West can't even monitor Iran's existing nuclear
program; with eight new reactors, monitoring will be far tougher.
The Obama administration badly wants a nuclear deal with Iran. While
Russia is a party to the negotiations with Iran, its new nuclear
contract seems designed to make the administration's quest for an
agreement look unbearably foolish.
Even if the West gets access to Bushehr, Iran will, thanks to Russia,
simply draw new nuclear cards. And by selling to Iran, Russia wins
leverage over the West: By creating a threat, it can perversely demand
that it must be part of the diplomatic efforts to address that threat.
Nor are the Balkans free from Russian meddling. In late 2013,
Montenegrin newspapers reported that Montenegro had turned down a
Russian request for a naval base, which Russia apparently wanted
because it feared losing its Syrian port at Tartus.
As long as Montenegro has a hope of joining NATO, it is likely to
reject Russian requests. But Bosnia is more vulnerable, and Russia has
close ties to Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia. In March,
Milorad Dodik, the Serbian president, met with the Russian foreign
minister.
Dodik, the Russians announced, was in Moscow to receive an award from
the "International Public Fund of Unity of Orthodox People."
Translation: The Serbs are Slavic brothers, and just like the
Ukrainian rebels and the occupied parts of Georgia, they are under
Russian protection.
In a recent speech, Putin defended the pact between Adolf Hitler and
Josef Stalin that divided Poland and launched World War II. That was
both a hint that he is willing to cut a dirty deal with the West and a
threat to his neighbors: cooperate with Russia or, like Poland, be
divided.
If the West cannot give Russia's neighbors a better option, they will
have to accept Putin's terms. Putin has the West pegged: We always
condemn Russian actions, but invariably, we soon decide it's time to
talk again. The West needs to draw a line and stand by it: No more
forgive and forget.
http://dailysignal.com/2014/11/22/dont-forget-putin-hes-still-moving-aggressively/
Nov 22 2014
Don't Forget Putin. He's Still Moving Aggressively.
Ted Bromund
NATO recently confirmed that Russian tanks were moving into
rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine. But Russia's aggression under
Vladimir Putin didn't begin in Ukraine and, unless the West stops
vacillating, it won't end there, either.
After the 2003 Rose Revolution, the nation of Georgia, in the
Caucasus, became a staunch American ally. But in 2008, it was invaded
and partially occupied by Putin's Russia, and in 2012 its pro-Western
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, lost the parliamentary elections.
Since then, Georgia has been governed by a coalition founded by a
shadowy billionaire who made his money in Russia. But recently, the
Georgian defense minister was fired and its foreign minister quit.
Both advocated closer ties to the West. Georgia is drifting into
Russia's orbit.
Next to Georgia are Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia, heavily armed by
Russia, supports a separatist territory inside Azerbaijan, which is a
major oil producer. As Russia also exports energy, it has a lot to
gain from threatening Azerbaijan.
Last week, in a sequel to major border clashes in August, Azerbaijan's
military shot down an Armenian helicopter. Armenia is not a mere
Russian puppet, but by backing Armenia, Russia perpetuates the
conflict and again makes Russian influence felt in the Caucasus.
If Armenia is a problem, Iran is a threat. Russia announced a contract
last week to build eight new nuclear reactors in Iran. There is
nothing new about Moscow's nuclear ties to Tehran: Russia completed
Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr.
Supposedly the new reactors, like Bushehr, will produce only
electricity. But the West can't even monitor Iran's existing nuclear
program; with eight new reactors, monitoring will be far tougher.
The Obama administration badly wants a nuclear deal with Iran. While
Russia is a party to the negotiations with Iran, its new nuclear
contract seems designed to make the administration's quest for an
agreement look unbearably foolish.
Even if the West gets access to Bushehr, Iran will, thanks to Russia,
simply draw new nuclear cards. And by selling to Iran, Russia wins
leverage over the West: By creating a threat, it can perversely demand
that it must be part of the diplomatic efforts to address that threat.
Nor are the Balkans free from Russian meddling. In late 2013,
Montenegrin newspapers reported that Montenegro had turned down a
Russian request for a naval base, which Russia apparently wanted
because it feared losing its Syrian port at Tartus.
As long as Montenegro has a hope of joining NATO, it is likely to
reject Russian requests. But Bosnia is more vulnerable, and Russia has
close ties to Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia. In March,
Milorad Dodik, the Serbian president, met with the Russian foreign
minister.
Dodik, the Russians announced, was in Moscow to receive an award from
the "International Public Fund of Unity of Orthodox People."
Translation: The Serbs are Slavic brothers, and just like the
Ukrainian rebels and the occupied parts of Georgia, they are under
Russian protection.
In a recent speech, Putin defended the pact between Adolf Hitler and
Josef Stalin that divided Poland and launched World War II. That was
both a hint that he is willing to cut a dirty deal with the West and a
threat to his neighbors: cooperate with Russia or, like Poland, be
divided.
If the West cannot give Russia's neighbors a better option, they will
have to accept Putin's terms. Putin has the West pegged: We always
condemn Russian actions, but invariably, we soon decide it's time to
talk again. The West needs to draw a line and stand by it: No more
forgive and forget.
http://dailysignal.com/2014/11/22/dont-forget-putin-hes-still-moving-aggressively/