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ARMENIA WILL LEAVE EURASIAN UNION
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 11 October 2014, 11:09
Hence, about an hour before the national rally of the non-governmental
forces of Armenia the presidents of the Eurasian Union member states
signed with Serzh Sargsyan the treaty on the Eurasian Union which
actually resolved the issue of sovereignty of Armenia and actually
also the issue of government of Armenia.
Nobody appeared in an awkward situation, including the non-governmental
forces. The latter can go on to say: "well, we said it would be
irreversible".
A lot has been said about what membership to the Eurasian Union
means though concerns about protection of the state from fall and
dangers can never be too many. So, despite the signing of the treaty,
the deep disaster that is awaiting Armenia within the Eurasian Union
must continue to be unmasked in Armenia.
In Armenia a very small part of the society resisted. In fact, the
key parliamentary forces supported the Eurasian Union unanimously.
As a next step, the treaty must be ratified by the National Assembly.
Two options are possible. Either the option of the CSTO treaty on
non-implementation of cooperation with third countries over military
infrastructure without Kazakhstan's permission when both governmental
and non-governmental forces of the parliament approved it, or the
option of the December 2 deal with Gazprom when the non-governmental
forces made a galactic noise but then forced the new government to
revise the deal on selling Vorotan Cascade to the American company
instead of the deal that actually transformed Armenia to Gazprom's
zone.
One thing is clear. There is no doubt that the Armenian parliament
will ratify the deal, especially that the opposition has announced that
this is not an important issue. Saying no to the constitutional reform
has been announced as important. By the way, the mentioned reforms
envisaged referendum on membership to supranational bodies. It is not
ruled out that under a certain situation this Constitutional amendment
could be the singular circumstance that stems from the interests of
Armenia and the society in that constitutional adventure and may later
be applied retrospectively to withdraw Armenia from the Eurasian Union.
Armenia will certain leave the Eurasian Union, whether the old
Constitution or the new Constitution. The Eurasian Union does not
have a future though it is not an excuse because it may collapse on
Armenia's head. In addition, it may collapse at once or gradually come
to pieces. Mistakes will be inevitable in the Eurasian Union because
this union is devoid of an axis, logic and shared interests and will
most probably jeopardize Armenia more because it is the weakest link
in the union.
Nevertheless, the entire process of the Eurasian Union had an
invaluable positive effect for Armenia, even though it sounds
impossible. The process of the Eurasian Union actually did what
should have been done at the beginning of independence, at least in
the first decade. The process of the Eurasian Union resulted in an
indirect lustration.
The post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact experience showed that after the
collapse of the Soviet empire the countries which initiated a legal
process of lustration achieved success and breakthrough. There was
not a legal process in Armenia but there was a political lustration,
which is very important and may be an important starting point of
restoring independence and sovereignty of Armenia.
The result will depend on the Armenian society. Or, more exactly,
it will depend on the Armenian society how painful the process will
be for Armenia and what place and role Armenia will have in the area
of global competition.
Because if Armenia does not leave the Eurasian Union, the process of
formation of the new world order will pull Armenia out of it. The
issue is what contribution the Armenian society will have in that
process because the size of the losses of Armenia will depend on the
size of that contribution.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33084#sthash.iDQ8DfYf.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 11 October 2014, 11:09
Hence, about an hour before the national rally of the non-governmental
forces of Armenia the presidents of the Eurasian Union member states
signed with Serzh Sargsyan the treaty on the Eurasian Union which
actually resolved the issue of sovereignty of Armenia and actually
also the issue of government of Armenia.
Nobody appeared in an awkward situation, including the non-governmental
forces. The latter can go on to say: "well, we said it would be
irreversible".
A lot has been said about what membership to the Eurasian Union
means though concerns about protection of the state from fall and
dangers can never be too many. So, despite the signing of the treaty,
the deep disaster that is awaiting Armenia within the Eurasian Union
must continue to be unmasked in Armenia.
In Armenia a very small part of the society resisted. In fact, the
key parliamentary forces supported the Eurasian Union unanimously.
As a next step, the treaty must be ratified by the National Assembly.
Two options are possible. Either the option of the CSTO treaty on
non-implementation of cooperation with third countries over military
infrastructure without Kazakhstan's permission when both governmental
and non-governmental forces of the parliament approved it, or the
option of the December 2 deal with Gazprom when the non-governmental
forces made a galactic noise but then forced the new government to
revise the deal on selling Vorotan Cascade to the American company
instead of the deal that actually transformed Armenia to Gazprom's
zone.
One thing is clear. There is no doubt that the Armenian parliament
will ratify the deal, especially that the opposition has announced that
this is not an important issue. Saying no to the constitutional reform
has been announced as important. By the way, the mentioned reforms
envisaged referendum on membership to supranational bodies. It is not
ruled out that under a certain situation this Constitutional amendment
could be the singular circumstance that stems from the interests of
Armenia and the society in that constitutional adventure and may later
be applied retrospectively to withdraw Armenia from the Eurasian Union.
Armenia will certain leave the Eurasian Union, whether the old
Constitution or the new Constitution. The Eurasian Union does not
have a future though it is not an excuse because it may collapse on
Armenia's head. In addition, it may collapse at once or gradually come
to pieces. Mistakes will be inevitable in the Eurasian Union because
this union is devoid of an axis, logic and shared interests and will
most probably jeopardize Armenia more because it is the weakest link
in the union.
Nevertheless, the entire process of the Eurasian Union had an
invaluable positive effect for Armenia, even though it sounds
impossible. The process of the Eurasian Union actually did what
should have been done at the beginning of independence, at least in
the first decade. The process of the Eurasian Union resulted in an
indirect lustration.
The post-Soviet and post-Warsaw Pact experience showed that after the
collapse of the Soviet empire the countries which initiated a legal
process of lustration achieved success and breakthrough. There was
not a legal process in Armenia but there was a political lustration,
which is very important and may be an important starting point of
restoring independence and sovereignty of Armenia.
The result will depend on the Armenian society. Or, more exactly,
it will depend on the Armenian society how painful the process will
be for Armenia and what place and role Armenia will have in the area
of global competition.
Because if Armenia does not leave the Eurasian Union, the process of
formation of the new world order will pull Armenia out of it. The
issue is what contribution the Armenian society will have in that
process because the size of the losses of Armenia will depend on the
size of that contribution.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33084#sthash.iDQ8DfYf.dpuf