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ANDREY ARESHEV: RUSSIA WANTS TO SEE ARMENIA AS ITS STRONG AND DYNAMICALLY DEVELOPING ALLY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
ArmInfo's interview with Andrey Areshev, expert at the Center for
Central Asian and Caucasus Studies of the Institute for Oriental
Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
by Ashot Safaryan
Tuesday, October 14, 19:05
Who is the playmaker in Armenia's opposition trinity? Armenian
National Congress and Heritage are radical, while Prosperous Armenia
is restrained. What do you think about this contrast?
The Armenian opposition keep in mind the hard social-economic situation
in their country and therefore they refrain from drastic measures. The
serious problems most of Armenians face today force some of them to
emigrate and others to wish change of government. But since Armenia
is involved in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, any uncontrolled
process may cause some unpredictable consequences. The leaders of
the Armenian opposition are well aware that there is a high risk of
provocations during their rallies, and so, during the Oct 10 rally
they did their best to prevent any incidents. It was important that
one of them Levon Ter-Petrosyan urged the oppositionists not to hurry
and not to engage in self-activity. This implies that the leaders of
the Armenian opposition have learned the tragic lessons of the past
and will be wiser this time. As far as Prosperous Armenia is concerned,
that force, represents most of local businessmen, so, its policy cannot
be drastic. On the other hand, the recent protests of thousands of
small and medium-sized businessmen against new IMF-imposed taxation
have encouraged lots of other people to go into the streets. This fact
could not but be ignored by the leader of Prosperous Armenia Gagik
Tsarukyan, who said that no Maidan does not mean no action at all.
In his speech the leader of Armenian National Congress Levon
Ter-Petrosyan was quite kind to the Eurasian Economic Union. He said
that Armenia's accession to that Union is a fait accompli, while a
representative of Prosperous Armenia added that the rally was not
aimed against Russia. What can these curtseys mean?
Russia wants to see Armenia as its strong and dynamically developing
ally in the South Caucasus. The Armenian opposition knows this, that's
why, it made no anti-Russian calls during its last rally. The leader
of Armenian National Congress Levon Ter- Petrosyan is a realist and
pragmatist. "He is well aware where there are real security guarantees
and where there are just illusions. And he still remembers the times
when his party split exactly because of contradicting attitudes
towards Russia. As far as Prosperous Armenia is concerned, it has
close contacts with Russia and Belarus. In his last interview to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the party's leader Gagik Tsarukyan made it clear
that Armenia and Russia need each other.
I think for the leaders of the Armenian opposition Armenia's interests
are more important than the interests of any external player. They
look to me quite responsible and committed to solve their country's
problems and this is that makes them different from oppositions in
some other post-Soviet republics.
The agreement on Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union
has yet to be ratified by four parliaments. Can we expect any force
majeurs in the meantime? What will be the response of the West,
who is firmly resolved to torpedo the Eurasian projects?
The West may take unexpected steps at the stage of Armenia's
ratification of the Agreement on Accession to the Eurasian Economic
Union. The process of coordination of the agreement was accompanied
by various rumors and "underflows". The response of the West will
be predictable (i.e. extremely negative) in terms of the content
and it will not be standard in terms of the forms and formats of
countermeasures. The attractive "alternative" proposals, which
resemble sandcastles (such as an "alternative security system" with
the focus on Yerevan-Tbilisi close partnership) and certain projects
that make no difference will intersperse with the pressure in the
issues of much significance to Armenia, e.g. the Karabakh conflict,
privatization of the key infrastructure facilities, etc. There may
even be threats to impose sanctions and terminate joint projects with
Western partners in case of further promotion of the Russian-Armenian
trade and economic ties.
The Kremlin is constantly emphasizing and sincerely explaining that
it wants no confrontation and that the "idea of common space from
Lisbon to Vladivostok" remains on the agenda.
However, it is extremely hard to convince our Western (first of all,
American) partners of such things, and the hysteria or sanctions
(which started long before the developments in Ukraine) is direct
evidence of that.
Unfortunately, all this will lead to new complications in the Middle
East, Central Asia and the Caucasus.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=90FF9D80-53B3-11E4-B90C0EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's interview with Andrey Areshev, expert at the Center for
Central Asian and Caucasus Studies of the Institute for Oriental
Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
by Ashot Safaryan
Tuesday, October 14, 19:05
Who is the playmaker in Armenia's opposition trinity? Armenian
National Congress and Heritage are radical, while Prosperous Armenia
is restrained. What do you think about this contrast?
The Armenian opposition keep in mind the hard social-economic situation
in their country and therefore they refrain from drastic measures. The
serious problems most of Armenians face today force some of them to
emigrate and others to wish change of government. But since Armenia
is involved in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, any uncontrolled
process may cause some unpredictable consequences. The leaders of
the Armenian opposition are well aware that there is a high risk of
provocations during their rallies, and so, during the Oct 10 rally
they did their best to prevent any incidents. It was important that
one of them Levon Ter-Petrosyan urged the oppositionists not to hurry
and not to engage in self-activity. This implies that the leaders of
the Armenian opposition have learned the tragic lessons of the past
and will be wiser this time. As far as Prosperous Armenia is concerned,
that force, represents most of local businessmen, so, its policy cannot
be drastic. On the other hand, the recent protests of thousands of
small and medium-sized businessmen against new IMF-imposed taxation
have encouraged lots of other people to go into the streets. This fact
could not but be ignored by the leader of Prosperous Armenia Gagik
Tsarukyan, who said that no Maidan does not mean no action at all.
In his speech the leader of Armenian National Congress Levon
Ter-Petrosyan was quite kind to the Eurasian Economic Union. He said
that Armenia's accession to that Union is a fait accompli, while a
representative of Prosperous Armenia added that the rally was not
aimed against Russia. What can these curtseys mean?
Russia wants to see Armenia as its strong and dynamically developing
ally in the South Caucasus. The Armenian opposition knows this, that's
why, it made no anti-Russian calls during its last rally. The leader
of Armenian National Congress Levon Ter- Petrosyan is a realist and
pragmatist. "He is well aware where there are real security guarantees
and where there are just illusions. And he still remembers the times
when his party split exactly because of contradicting attitudes
towards Russia. As far as Prosperous Armenia is concerned, it has
close contacts with Russia and Belarus. In his last interview to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the party's leader Gagik Tsarukyan made it clear
that Armenia and Russia need each other.
I think for the leaders of the Armenian opposition Armenia's interests
are more important than the interests of any external player. They
look to me quite responsible and committed to solve their country's
problems and this is that makes them different from oppositions in
some other post-Soviet republics.
The agreement on Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union
has yet to be ratified by four parliaments. Can we expect any force
majeurs in the meantime? What will be the response of the West,
who is firmly resolved to torpedo the Eurasian projects?
The West may take unexpected steps at the stage of Armenia's
ratification of the Agreement on Accession to the Eurasian Economic
Union. The process of coordination of the agreement was accompanied
by various rumors and "underflows". The response of the West will
be predictable (i.e. extremely negative) in terms of the content
and it will not be standard in terms of the forms and formats of
countermeasures. The attractive "alternative" proposals, which
resemble sandcastles (such as an "alternative security system" with
the focus on Yerevan-Tbilisi close partnership) and certain projects
that make no difference will intersperse with the pressure in the
issues of much significance to Armenia, e.g. the Karabakh conflict,
privatization of the key infrastructure facilities, etc. There may
even be threats to impose sanctions and terminate joint projects with
Western partners in case of further promotion of the Russian-Armenian
trade and economic ties.
The Kremlin is constantly emphasizing and sincerely explaining that
it wants no confrontation and that the "idea of common space from
Lisbon to Vladivostok" remains on the agenda.
However, it is extremely hard to convince our Western (first of all,
American) partners of such things, and the hysteria or sanctions
(which started long before the developments in Ukraine) is direct
evidence of that.
Unfortunately, all this will lead to new complications in the Middle
East, Central Asia and the Caucasus.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=90FF9D80-53B3-11E4-B90C0EB7C0D21663