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ARMENIA'S MEMBERSHIP IN EEU WILL FURTHER UNDERMINE REGIONAL SECURITY
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Oct 15 2014
by Amanda Paul
Despite many Armenians hoping that it would not happen, it came as no
real surprise that Armenia's president, Serzh Sarksyan, signed the
agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) last Friday at
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Minsk. Hence
as of Jan. 1, 2015, three will become four as Armenia joins Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
As I have written before, like many analysts, I do not consider this
membership to be beneficial to Armenia for at least five reasons:
First, membership in the EEU will further erode Armenia's independence
and sovereignty. Second, it will further consolidate Russia's hold
over the Armenian economy and the oligarchic networks that control it.
Third, unlike the agreements offered by the EU, which were abandoned
in September 2013, it will not act as a roadmap for reform and
modernization. This means that the current corrupt and monopolized
system will continue. Fourth, it limits the sort of economic
relationship that Armenia can have with the EU, meaning that
diversification will be even more difficult than it was previously.
And finally, it will further undermine Armenia's security and increase
regional tensions not least because it still remains unclear how this
is going to affect the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. There
is concern that the agreement will have very negative consequences
for Karabakh's economy as it depends on Armenia, which is its only
export market.
This has been a very sensitive issue for other members of the EEU,
Kazakhstan and Belarus. Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally
recognized part of Azerbaijan, and Minsk and Astana want to avoid any
negative ramifications on their relations with Azerbaijan, underlining
that membership in the EEU must be within UN-recognized borders. While
there has been some discussion over a border post between Karabakh and
Armenia, nothing is confirmed. Furthermore, one could hardly say this
would represent watertight control. Hence, there remains a very high
risk of goods from Karabakh being relabeled and exported. There can be
no doubt this situation seems set to increase tensions with Azerbaijan.
Armenians are also right to be concerned about the further erosion
of their sovereignty. However, while Sarksyan may have been the one
to sign on the dotted line this time, he is certainly not alone in
taking decisions that erode Armenia's independence. In fact, one way
or another, all of Armenia's presidents have made decisions that have
allowed Moscow to nibble away at the country's sovereignty. It was
Armenia's first president, Ter Petrossian, who cut the deal with Moscow
to allow the Russian military a base in Armenia and Russian troops on
the Turkey-Armenian border to "protect" the country from Turkey. He
was followed by Robert Kocharyan, who sold off key infrastructure to
Russia related to energy, transport and communications networks. And
then came Sarksyan, who has not only brought Armenia into the EEU, but
also extended the Russian military base lease at Gyumri for a further
50 years as well as allowing Russia to share its Erebuni airport.
Armenians believe that Russia will take care of their security and
that Russia is essential to them in their conflict with Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh. During the Minsk meeting, Putin announced
that a military exercise at Gyumri a few days later with some 3,000
soldiers and numerous pieces of military hardware including Mig
fighter jets and tanks. Russia claims that its military bases shore
up peace and security in the region. To me it seems the opposite is
true as these military bases are used by Russia to project power and
create instability, further undermining the already-fragile security
situation in the South Caucasus
Furthermore, despite the fact that Russia claims to be Armenia's
security guarantor and close ally, at the same time Moscow continues
to sell arms and sign military deals with Azerbaijan. Russian Defense
Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu paid a visit to Baku on Oct. 13, and it
is reported that a Cooperation Plan for 2015 was signed between the
ministries of defense of the two countries. Nagorno-Karabakh is used
by Russia to divide and rule, to play Armenia and Azerbaijan off
each other and, along with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia,
guarantee Russia's ongoing stake in the region. Armenia's membership
in the EEU serves to consolidate this stake.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul/armenias-membership-in-eeu-will-further-undermine-regional-security_361655.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Oct 15 2014
by Amanda Paul
Despite many Armenians hoping that it would not happen, it came as no
real surprise that Armenia's president, Serzh Sarksyan, signed the
agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) last Friday at
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Minsk. Hence
as of Jan. 1, 2015, three will become four as Armenia joins Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan.
As I have written before, like many analysts, I do not consider this
membership to be beneficial to Armenia for at least five reasons:
First, membership in the EEU will further erode Armenia's independence
and sovereignty. Second, it will further consolidate Russia's hold
over the Armenian economy and the oligarchic networks that control it.
Third, unlike the agreements offered by the EU, which were abandoned
in September 2013, it will not act as a roadmap for reform and
modernization. This means that the current corrupt and monopolized
system will continue. Fourth, it limits the sort of economic
relationship that Armenia can have with the EU, meaning that
diversification will be even more difficult than it was previously.
And finally, it will further undermine Armenia's security and increase
regional tensions not least because it still remains unclear how this
is going to affect the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. There
is concern that the agreement will have very negative consequences
for Karabakh's economy as it depends on Armenia, which is its only
export market.
This has been a very sensitive issue for other members of the EEU,
Kazakhstan and Belarus. Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally
recognized part of Azerbaijan, and Minsk and Astana want to avoid any
negative ramifications on their relations with Azerbaijan, underlining
that membership in the EEU must be within UN-recognized borders. While
there has been some discussion over a border post between Karabakh and
Armenia, nothing is confirmed. Furthermore, one could hardly say this
would represent watertight control. Hence, there remains a very high
risk of goods from Karabakh being relabeled and exported. There can be
no doubt this situation seems set to increase tensions with Azerbaijan.
Armenians are also right to be concerned about the further erosion
of their sovereignty. However, while Sarksyan may have been the one
to sign on the dotted line this time, he is certainly not alone in
taking decisions that erode Armenia's independence. In fact, one way
or another, all of Armenia's presidents have made decisions that have
allowed Moscow to nibble away at the country's sovereignty. It was
Armenia's first president, Ter Petrossian, who cut the deal with Moscow
to allow the Russian military a base in Armenia and Russian troops on
the Turkey-Armenian border to "protect" the country from Turkey. He
was followed by Robert Kocharyan, who sold off key infrastructure to
Russia related to energy, transport and communications networks. And
then came Sarksyan, who has not only brought Armenia into the EEU, but
also extended the Russian military base lease at Gyumri for a further
50 years as well as allowing Russia to share its Erebuni airport.
Armenians believe that Russia will take care of their security and
that Russia is essential to them in their conflict with Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh. During the Minsk meeting, Putin announced
that a military exercise at Gyumri a few days later with some 3,000
soldiers and numerous pieces of military hardware including Mig
fighter jets and tanks. Russia claims that its military bases shore
up peace and security in the region. To me it seems the opposite is
true as these military bases are used by Russia to project power and
create instability, further undermining the already-fragile security
situation in the South Caucasus
Furthermore, despite the fact that Russia claims to be Armenia's
security guarantor and close ally, at the same time Moscow continues
to sell arms and sign military deals with Azerbaijan. Russian Defense
Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu paid a visit to Baku on Oct. 13, and it
is reported that a Cooperation Plan for 2015 was signed between the
ministries of defense of the two countries. Nagorno-Karabakh is used
by Russia to divide and rule, to play Armenia and Azerbaijan off
each other and, along with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia,
guarantee Russia's ongoing stake in the region. Armenia's membership
in the EEU serves to consolidate this stake.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul/armenias-membership-in-eeu-will-further-undermine-regional-security_361655.html