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ANKARA: Interim mistake

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  • ANKARA: Interim mistake

    Journal of Turkish Weekly
    October 17, 2014 Friday

    Interim mistake

    Turkey, Oct. 17 -- JTW Op-Ed, Orkhan Valiyev


    International relations was created at the Peace Conference of
    Westphalia in 1648. Subsequently, world affairs have been regulated by
    monarchies, nation states and ideological wars. Now, we find ourselves
    in 2014, at the centenary of World War I, as Huntington famously wrote
    the world politics has entered a new phase that in which the sources
    of conflicts will primarily be cultural.

    After the Soviet breakup the West endeavored to remap post-Soviet
    geography with revolutions being one of its major instruments. While
    these color revolutions were ultimately able to prompt regimes change
    in Ukraine, Georgia, the EU failed to eliminate corruption and Russian
    presence in Ukraine thereafter, therefore rendering the hopes of the
    initial revolution void. Yet looking at it from a different angle,
    since independence Ukraine was never able to fully independent due to
    the strong influences of both Russian and the West. Here the western
    part of the country leaned toward the West, while on the other hand
    eastern Ukraine refused to accept western values due in large part to
    the high concentration of the Russian speaking minority living there.
    With the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia's popularity has declined
    in the post-Soviet geography and the West has been there to try and
    supplant by sowing the seeds of democracy, rule of law and respect for
    human rights. The West was able to convince of western Ukraine of the
    democratization process, and as a result those living there began to
    identify themselves as part of the EU even though their country would
    never be a full member. The western oriented leadership of Ukraine may
    have succeeded in ousting the pro-Russian president but they did not
    have any realistic strategy for the future. Subsequently, the
    government is still in need of western aid to which end the newly
    elected president visited the US on 18 September and held a "historic
    speech" at congress asking for support against Russia. He added that
    the crisis in Ukraine is a global issue but I argue that despite lond
    applause at the congress the Western leadership cannot agree with him
    because the world is currently facing such crises and, conflicts that
    are much more threatening to global security especially western
    interest. Ultimately, the Ukrainian crisis is a regional and even
    post-Soviet issue for the west.

    Karl Popper described politics as "irrational action", and in the case
    of Ukraine's interim government that came to power after Yanukovich,
    irrational decisions were made which had dire consequences for the
    Ukrainian population.

    First, with the nullification of the law on minority languages in
    Ukraine, the interim government opted to shoot first, think later, an
    action which has come at a high price and given the Kremlin a pretext.
    Seizing this opportunity, Russia declared that the Russian minority in
    Ukraine was in danger, and therewith, a justification for Russian
    intervention on behalf of the society of its people was provided.

    Second, the interim government hoped for full membership in both the
    EU and NATO, but according to the joint Declaration of the Prague
    Summit in 2009, participation in the Eastern Partnership does not
    guarantee EU membership. In article one of the declaration it is
    stated that "The participants of the Prague Summit agree that the
    Eastern Partnership will be based on commitments to the principles of
    international law and to fundamental values, including democracy, the
    rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, as
    well as to, market economy, sustainable development and good
    governance". As can be seen the declaration makes no mention of
    membership.

    Third, as Huntington wrote on his thesis in terms of religion and
    ethnicity Ukraine was divided two parts, with the majority of those in
    western Ukraine, which saw the first of five movements in the
    post-Soviet geography against Soviet authority on the eve of the
    Soviet breakup as European. While the opposition leaders successfully
    aimed their aggression against at Russia in the western part of the
    country, they neglected eastern Ukraine and the Russian presence
    there. As Huntington wrote "people can change their religious,
    political, and civil identities but they cannot change their cultural
    identity". In addition, economic interdependence is seen by Dale C.
    Copeland as the major cause of wars yet this characteristic of
    Ukrainian- Russian relations was not aptly recognized by Ukrainian
    leaders.

    Why Ceasefire won't stop deaths

    On the eve of the Soviet breakup five conflicts emerged within the
    post-Soviet geography all of which were frozen by Russian "mediation".
    In the case of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, both sides signed an
    agreement but skirmishes and casualties never stopped as the terms of
    ceasefire neither released Azerbaijani territories that were invaded
    by Armenia exerted any significant impact on the future proceedings of
    the negotiation process. In the case of Ukraine, the signing of a
    ceasefire agreement in no way ensures that the conflict will truly be
    resolved.

    First of all, the central government of Ukraine does not have direct
    contact with the separatists, thus making any form of negotiation
    difficult.

    Second, as can be seen in the example of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    Russia does not seek to stop deaths or reach a genuine political
    solution to the conflict, rather, the Kremlin's primary interest is
    maintenance of its influence over Ukraine.

    Ironically, despite the fact that the Kremlin denies its relations
    with the separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, during the signing of
    the ceasefire agreement in Minsk, representatives of the separatist
    did not sign the final peace plan. From my point view, the ceasefire
    process proved once again that unless they formulate and pursue a
    rational strategy which would guarantee Russia's interest in eastern
    regions, Ukrainian officials will not prevail.

    In conclusion, I postulate that Russia will not annex or seize the
    eastern regions of Ukraine like it did with Crimea. Nonetheless,
    Russia will also never agree to the existence of Western values in
    eastern Ukraine and has already successfully planted the seeds of fear
    and revulsion which are the major factors of conflict. As Dr Zbigniew
    Brzezinski famously wrote "Modern nation-building is a difficult
    process. Because it is so complex, the process is easily vulnerable to
    nationalistic emotions and, indeed, ethnic antipathies" (The Caucasus
    and New Geo-Political Realities). Therefore, Ukraine should formulate
    a rational, pragmatic strategy that can act as a guide, and understand
    that nations have no permanent friends or enemies, they only have
    permanent interests.

    Additionally, Ukrainian officials should also heed the words of
    Lippmann that "the facts of geography are permanent" when analyzing
    its geographical position, Ukraine does not technical fall into Europe
    in a geographical sense. Moreover, despite the fact that the newly
    elected government signed the Association agreement with the EU, it
    will be implemented in 2016, once again proving that Ukraine's
    westernized political elite made a historic mistake. While the fact
    remains that the Russian economy has seen declined, the country still
    have formidable influence over the post-Soviet geography and the
    Ukrainian officials have failed to balance their relations with the
    Kremlin. Consequently, Putin hold all the cards in his hand.
    Unfortunately, despite the repulsion of the population of western
    Ukraine towards Russia it will be unable to institute a central
    government without Russian participation.

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