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TIME OUT: FAILING A CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, LAME-DUCK SARGSYAN LIKELY TO MULL 'OPERATION SUCCESSOR'
Analysis | 20.10.14 | 10:03
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Observers do not exclude that the effective delay in the constitutional
reform acknowledged by the government last week may actually mean that
President Serzh Sargsyan is considering other options of ensuring his
continued political future after leaving office in a few years' time.
'Operation successor' may become Plan B for the current head of state,
who will become a lame duck soon as his second and final term in
office is due to expire in 2018.
Even though Sargsyan and his ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)
have repeatedly denied tailoring amendments to the Constitution to
their political needs, most opposition groups believe the changes,
in particular, a transition to from the current semi-presidential to
a parliamentary form of government, reveals such designs.
The press secretary of the Armenian president, Arman Saghatelyan,
on Friday said that Sargsyan would express his final opinion on the
proposed constitutional reform only in February-March 2015.
The commission dealing with the reform was formed in September 2013 and
in April of this year Sargsyan heard draft concepts of amendments under
some of which it was suggested that Armenia make a transition from its
current semi-presidential to a parliamentary form of government. During
the summer the draft concepts were discussed in the provinces and on
October 15 the final text of the Concept was published.
Also, the Venice Commission gave its conclusion. On the whole, it
evaluated the proposed concept positively, but suggested that greater
political consolidation on the matter should be achieved. It was with
this motivation, i.e. to conduct a broader political discussion and
ensure a consolidated approach, that spokesman Saghatelyan stated
about the factual postponement of the reform.
Political consolidation, indeed, appears to be non-existent - at
least four of the six parliamentary parties (the Armenian National
Congress, Heritage, the Prosperous Armenia Party and Orinats Yerkir)
are against amending the Constitution at this moment.
The thing is that if the reforms are implemented, it will allow
President Sargsyan to ensure his "reincarnation" as prime minister or
speaker of parliament with broad powers. Some suggest that Sargsyan
could even remain just the leader of the ruling RPA and influence
Armenian politics as head of the majority party.
The statement by the presidential spokesman was taken by members
of the 'non-governing troika" - the ANC, the PAP and Heritage -
as a sign of the success of their joint anti-government campaign,
a key of which is opposition to changing the Constitution. They said
Sargsyan refused to go ahead with the reforms under pressure from
the October 10 rally and facing the threat of another large rally
that the opposition forces plan for October 24.
Lawyers argue that from a purely legal point of view, the
constitutional reform concept is really positive. In particular, the
matter concerns, granting the parliamentary opposition broader powers,
also in terms of control. Besides, the concept also envisages reforms
of the judiciary.
However, the political class in Armenia has not even discussed
the essence of the constitutional reform and the question has been
formulated bluntly - not to let Sargsyan reproduce his power.
The Armenian press is trying to understand what the president's
decision to effectively postpone an important event could mean. There
may be a few variants, and the most likely is that he could consider
Plan B - to promote a 'successor'. If there is a transition to a
parliamentary system, the ruling RPA should already now be preparing
its candidate, and specific names are already being given.
Among the potential candidates could be former prime minister and
now Ambassador to the United States Tigran Sargsyan, current Prime
Minister Hovik Abrahamian, and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, who,
after the August escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone,
was recognized by external forces.
The non-governing and opposition forces also are preparing for the
elections - leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan
stated that he was ready to run for president, if society requested
so. And leader of the opposition Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian,
who gained nearly 40 percent of the vote in the 2013 presidential
election, hinted at his desire to see a woman as a presidential
candidate. Some observers do not rule out that Heritage party lawmaker
Zaruhi Postanjyan could become such a candidate in 2018.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/57753/armenia_constitutional_reform_president_sargsyan_o pposition
Analysis | 20.10.14 | 10:03
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Observers do not exclude that the effective delay in the constitutional
reform acknowledged by the government last week may actually mean that
President Serzh Sargsyan is considering other options of ensuring his
continued political future after leaving office in a few years' time.
'Operation successor' may become Plan B for the current head of state,
who will become a lame duck soon as his second and final term in
office is due to expire in 2018.
Even though Sargsyan and his ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)
have repeatedly denied tailoring amendments to the Constitution to
their political needs, most opposition groups believe the changes,
in particular, a transition to from the current semi-presidential to
a parliamentary form of government, reveals such designs.
The press secretary of the Armenian president, Arman Saghatelyan,
on Friday said that Sargsyan would express his final opinion on the
proposed constitutional reform only in February-March 2015.
The commission dealing with the reform was formed in September 2013 and
in April of this year Sargsyan heard draft concepts of amendments under
some of which it was suggested that Armenia make a transition from its
current semi-presidential to a parliamentary form of government. During
the summer the draft concepts were discussed in the provinces and on
October 15 the final text of the Concept was published.
Also, the Venice Commission gave its conclusion. On the whole, it
evaluated the proposed concept positively, but suggested that greater
political consolidation on the matter should be achieved. It was with
this motivation, i.e. to conduct a broader political discussion and
ensure a consolidated approach, that spokesman Saghatelyan stated
about the factual postponement of the reform.
Political consolidation, indeed, appears to be non-existent - at
least four of the six parliamentary parties (the Armenian National
Congress, Heritage, the Prosperous Armenia Party and Orinats Yerkir)
are against amending the Constitution at this moment.
The thing is that if the reforms are implemented, it will allow
President Sargsyan to ensure his "reincarnation" as prime minister or
speaker of parliament with broad powers. Some suggest that Sargsyan
could even remain just the leader of the ruling RPA and influence
Armenian politics as head of the majority party.
The statement by the presidential spokesman was taken by members
of the 'non-governing troika" - the ANC, the PAP and Heritage -
as a sign of the success of their joint anti-government campaign,
a key of which is opposition to changing the Constitution. They said
Sargsyan refused to go ahead with the reforms under pressure from
the October 10 rally and facing the threat of another large rally
that the opposition forces plan for October 24.
Lawyers argue that from a purely legal point of view, the
constitutional reform concept is really positive. In particular, the
matter concerns, granting the parliamentary opposition broader powers,
also in terms of control. Besides, the concept also envisages reforms
of the judiciary.
However, the political class in Armenia has not even discussed
the essence of the constitutional reform and the question has been
formulated bluntly - not to let Sargsyan reproduce his power.
The Armenian press is trying to understand what the president's
decision to effectively postpone an important event could mean. There
may be a few variants, and the most likely is that he could consider
Plan B - to promote a 'successor'. If there is a transition to a
parliamentary system, the ruling RPA should already now be preparing
its candidate, and specific names are already being given.
Among the potential candidates could be former prime minister and
now Ambassador to the United States Tigran Sargsyan, current Prime
Minister Hovik Abrahamian, and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, who,
after the August escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone,
was recognized by external forces.
The non-governing and opposition forces also are preparing for the
elections - leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan
stated that he was ready to run for president, if society requested
so. And leader of the opposition Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian,
who gained nearly 40 percent of the vote in the 2013 presidential
election, hinted at his desire to see a woman as a presidential
candidate. Some observers do not rule out that Heritage party lawmaker
Zaruhi Postanjyan could become such a candidate in 2018.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/57753/armenia_constitutional_reform_president_sargsyan_o pposition