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Russia's "Hybrid" War Against Armenia
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 26 October 2014, 20:22
The head of the Russian Federal Customs Service is going to send its
envoy to Armenia to study the situation in the country, including on
the border of Armenia and Karabakh.
First, it should be noted that it is the envoy of the Russian Customs
Service, not of the Eurasian Commission. It means that Russia does not
want to miss this tiny chance to interfere with Armenia's intimate
state bodies under the Eurasian veil.
Russia is currently taking similar steps towards Abkhazia, trying to
sign an agreement with this republic which will actually make Abkhazia
part of Russia.
Currently a heated discussion is underway in Abkhazia that may end up
in a pan-national mobilization and as, Russian experts suggest, there
may be a new change of government. The people of Abkhazia do not want
to lose their sovereignty, while the government and non-government of
"recognized" Armenia are doing everything they can to eliminate any
hindrance to "velvet" annexation of Armenia by Russia.
Russia is doing everything to highlight the similarity of the status
of Armenia and of its unrecognized satellites Abkhazia and Crimea. The
sole decision on operation of Crimea-Yerevan flights is enough. It
will immediately reduce the status of Armenia to the status of annexed
Crimea.
Apparently, Russia will then second its customs officers to the
borders of Armenia. Apparently, however, it has not been identified
whether local or Eurasian customs officers will work on Armenia's
customs borders. It is possible that the compromise mentioned by
Nazarbayev concerned the permission granted to Armenia to leave its
customs officers on its BCPs to make sure that they will share all the
information with the Eurasian customs center. These customs officers
will stand on the border of Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh.
After joining the Eurasian Union the situation on the borders of
Armenia is going to change suddenly. The Georgian ambassador to
Armenia Tengis Sharmanashvili has announced that in early November the
Georgian delegation will visit Armenia. Problems have occurred with
Georgia-Armenia trade that need to be clarified, Sharmanashvili said.
He held out hope that the problems can be solved but, apparently,
these problems cannot even be diagnosed.
Iran cannot identify either how its relations with Armenia will
develop after the latter's membership to the Eurasian Economic Union.
Georgia and Iran which are not Russia's allies at the moment rightly
doubt that Moscow may close the customs border of Armenia, such as for
violation of phytosanitary norms.
Western experts describe Moscow's recent actions as "hybrid" war in
which "irregular" methods are used and it is hard to find an antidote.
Among these methods is the Eurasian Union where the rules are defined
in a way as to change them upon necessity.
By using "hybrid" methods Russia may close the trade borders of
Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh, forcing Yerevan to "beg" for
lifting the blockade of the borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This
is a probable scenario, it is being considered and will be easily
staged if Armenia "swallows" the flights from Crime and does not
object to Russia's intention to second an envoy of the Russian Customs
Service to the sovereign borders of Armenia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33142#sthash.xVHGHHSN.dpuf
From: A. Papazian
Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 26 October 2014, 20:22
The head of the Russian Federal Customs Service is going to send its
envoy to Armenia to study the situation in the country, including on
the border of Armenia and Karabakh.
First, it should be noted that it is the envoy of the Russian Customs
Service, not of the Eurasian Commission. It means that Russia does not
want to miss this tiny chance to interfere with Armenia's intimate
state bodies under the Eurasian veil.
Russia is currently taking similar steps towards Abkhazia, trying to
sign an agreement with this republic which will actually make Abkhazia
part of Russia.
Currently a heated discussion is underway in Abkhazia that may end up
in a pan-national mobilization and as, Russian experts suggest, there
may be a new change of government. The people of Abkhazia do not want
to lose their sovereignty, while the government and non-government of
"recognized" Armenia are doing everything they can to eliminate any
hindrance to "velvet" annexation of Armenia by Russia.
Russia is doing everything to highlight the similarity of the status
of Armenia and of its unrecognized satellites Abkhazia and Crimea. The
sole decision on operation of Crimea-Yerevan flights is enough. It
will immediately reduce the status of Armenia to the status of annexed
Crimea.
Apparently, Russia will then second its customs officers to the
borders of Armenia. Apparently, however, it has not been identified
whether local or Eurasian customs officers will work on Armenia's
customs borders. It is possible that the compromise mentioned by
Nazarbayev concerned the permission granted to Armenia to leave its
customs officers on its BCPs to make sure that they will share all the
information with the Eurasian customs center. These customs officers
will stand on the border of Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh.
After joining the Eurasian Union the situation on the borders of
Armenia is going to change suddenly. The Georgian ambassador to
Armenia Tengis Sharmanashvili has announced that in early November the
Georgian delegation will visit Armenia. Problems have occurred with
Georgia-Armenia trade that need to be clarified, Sharmanashvili said.
He held out hope that the problems can be solved but, apparently,
these problems cannot even be diagnosed.
Iran cannot identify either how its relations with Armenia will
develop after the latter's membership to the Eurasian Economic Union.
Georgia and Iran which are not Russia's allies at the moment rightly
doubt that Moscow may close the customs border of Armenia, such as for
violation of phytosanitary norms.
Western experts describe Moscow's recent actions as "hybrid" war in
which "irregular" methods are used and it is hard to find an antidote.
Among these methods is the Eurasian Union where the rules are defined
in a way as to change them upon necessity.
By using "hybrid" methods Russia may close the trade borders of
Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh, forcing Yerevan to "beg" for
lifting the blockade of the borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This
is a probable scenario, it is being considered and will be easily
staged if Armenia "swallows" the flights from Crime and does not
object to Russia's intention to second an envoy of the Russian Customs
Service to the sovereign borders of Armenia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33142#sthash.xVHGHHSN.dpuf
From: A. Papazian